Loading ...The Gold Bug- Providing raw fuel for Phase III.
“Phase III is not about hope it is about liquidation…Long term holders are forced to act in a bid to salvage what they have, unable to risk further declines and possibly end up retiring in poverty, the pain becomes too great, thus the selling orgy commences”. So could there possibly be any sellers left to power phase III lower?…yes unfortunately there are.
For metal stocks to drop another 20-50% from their current depressed levels there would have to be a renewed supply of “motivated sellers”. After the purging we have already seen to date, it would be fair to ask, are there any more sellers left? Could there still be enough sellers willing to provide the supply needed at much lower prices? With sentiment already this low hasn’t everyone who wants out, exited already? Well, the gold and silver market has been holding in reserve a special class of long term investors who can be called upon to dump their shares at the most inappropriate moment. In a final liquidity seeking event many will find the need to rid themselves of shares they swore to keep through thick and thin. Enter the goldbug-the raw fuel for a phase III.
Lloyd the goldbug- Raw fuel personified
Let me tell an anecdotal story of Lloyd, the gold bug. This summer while attending a mining investment conference I went on a mine visit. Lloyd, an attendee on our tour, was the quintessential goldbug. He was a friendly fellow who didn’t hesitate to tell me his opinion of the state of the world and its markets. Throughout the day I prodded Lloyd with questions and just let him talk, by the end of the day I had certainly gotten an earful. He covered the gambit of topics from FED money printing to market manipulation. Lloyd was quite certain he knew how this was all going to work out in a grand hyper-inflationary blow off which would carry gold and gold stocks to extraordinary levels. When I asked him how much lower metal stocks could go he assured me of two things. “Not much lower and I can guarantee you that once they bottom the price will rocket straight up to record highs.” It didn’t take me long to realize that three years into a bear market Lloyd was still “all in”. Lloyd was in his mid-60’s and just entering retirement. At some point during the afternoon he asked me if I would be interested in buying his undeveloped lot at Doug Casey’s Cafayate retreat. It became obvious to me that Lloyd was already “seeking liquidity” as I realized this was the kind of guy who is going to throw in the towel and sell whatever was liquid when phase III comes along. He was already nearing the end of his rope and he was the classic candidate that I described in my essay Phase III- Annihilation in the Precious metals markets where I stated: “Phase III is not about hope it is about liquidation…Long term holders are forced to act in a bid to salvage what they have, unable to risk further declines and possibly end up retiring in poverty, the pain becomes too great, thus the selling orgy commences”. So could there possibly be any sellers left to power phase III lower?…yes unfortunately there are.