OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

This problem has been smoldering since 2020, right?
Office workers, especially but not only IT, and accountants, working remotely, and everone buying so much online.
Just the empty retail space everywhere is huge.
And probably nothing compared to the empty office spaces everywhere. With more emptying to come as AI displaces more and more office workers. And businesses fleeing big, blue cities.
Seems the implosion/demolition/explosion of commercial loans is is finally happening.

They probably will be bailed out but what will the dollar be worth by then? You could totally see a dollar devaluation in the near future.

So, we’ve got problems with private credit, now REITS are going to restrict withdrawals. We’ve seen this movie before but it’s 100 times worse than it was in 2008 because of the debt. Trump better start to ready those gold backed bonds pretty soon. They won’t be Bitcoin backed IMHO because Bitcoin will fall with tech stocks.

Will be an interesting close today. Volume is light in the ETF’s and shares.

Really hoping this is a turning point.

Jimmy welcomes back to the show investigative journalist and author Whitney Webb to discuss her explosive new investigation revealing how billionaire Leslie Wexner and Jeffrey Epstein built a corporate welfare state in Ohio, creating a model of “public-private partnerships” that privatized government, funneled billions in taxpayer money to big tech data centers, and is now driving up electricity bills while gutting public schools and healthcare.

Webb details how Wexner created a de facto private government in his hometown of New Albany, Ohio, which evolved into Jobs Ohio—a private corporation that controls the state’s liquor tax revenue with zero public accountability—and has become the blueprint for a techno-feudal state promoted by the “dark enlightenment” figures like Peter Thiel and JD Vance.

She warns that Ohio is a petri dish for a nationwide takeover, where data centers are replacing public infrastructure, digital IDs are mandatory, and federal legislation is stripping local governments of the power to resist.

Webb also dissects the coordinated effort by Compact Magazine, Peter Thiel, and Soros-funded outlets to dismiss the Epstein scandal, and raises concerns about Joe Kent’s emergence as a potential controlled opposition figure designed to manufacture a “domestic terrorist” profile the government can later use against anti-war populists.

Go ahead … just ignore these crazy bastards.

Spit

We better not see the Fed gov bailing out these spendthrift states … especially CA who has done this to themselves. Let the taxpayers there reap the “benefits” of living in a socialist state!

Realistically they will be bailed out at least to some extent. Grrrrrr

Re: real estate Yeah how screwed is that illiquidity! and like you say what if your buildings are in NYC with Mamdani running things? More taxes and rent control on the way!

That Belgian guy has deep pockets! 🙂

doesn’t that mean that every real estate fund out there will do the same thing?

Imagine needing that money for some emergency and counting on it being there, they’d be Abetter off marking it to market and making what little funds available.

I read yesterday that the CA. public pension plans are between $250 billion – $1 trillion underfunded. The pension plans cannot be renegotiated and are to be paid out ahead of CA. bondholders. This is the result of years of firefighters and police retiring with $250K pensions, teachers over $100K, lifeguards even over $100K. It’s all a ponzi scheme. estimates that CA. would file for bankruptcy within 3 years and would even drag down the funds of red states.

This country is so forked.

and check out the Au/BTC ratio….nice saucer base here

and then look at the longer 9 year base….can we get back those hi’s or better !!!!

re Real Estate….same here…was told by someone who used to value commercial real estate, now retired but still in contact with old colleagues….quote they have NEVER seen it this bad ……

When yields were damn all she told me loads of people were trying to use Real Estate as a yields producer for funds…she refused to get involved, as she knew how illiquid it was in healthy times, let alone bad ones……I bet there is a chunk of money locked in around the Globe.

PS then they elect commie cretins as Mayors, see London and NY.

Re Bonds….looks like they managed to wake up the Postmaster up in that Belgian town, with 100 people and once he sobered up, after a 4 hour lunch, he started bidding …!!!!!

Wide Awake Media
@wideawake_media
Dr. Ben Marble says it’s time to stop accepting blood from people who took the Covid injections.

“The entire blood supply in America, and basically the whole world, is contaminated with the spike protein poison bioweapon.”

“We’re seeing patients that get blood transfusions that are unvaccinated, and suddenly they get blood clots or have heart attacks or strokes.”

https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/2037092380218679765

Fingers crossed brother!

That’s what I’ve been waiting for. Gold $20k and real estate in the tank.

I hope something has shifted today.

FXHedge
@Fxhedgers
🚨 Is this the beginning of a repeat of Lehman Bros 2008?

UBS just halted withdrawals of a $469 million real estate fund and told investors they can’t have their money back for up to 3 years.

Why does this matter? Back in June of 2007, Bear Stearns did the same thing at two of their hedge funds. One year later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the global financial crisis happened.

UBS looked at their real estate portfolio, realized the buildings are not worth what they paid for them and they cannot sell them without admitting HUGE losses.

Commercial real estate office vacancies are at record highs. Buildings are worth a fraction of what they were. Everyone has been trying to avoid marking their portfolios down to actual current value. But they cannot ignore it any longer.

https://x.com/Fxhedgers/status/2037511151437676722

Is there some sort of news coming after the bell that would cause pm’s to rally?

Or is the fall of the dollar set to begin?

Rates are backing off for some odd reason.

This is the best action we’ve seen in many moons.

maddog – as you say “breaking all correlations”

but to break all correlations, just like that is extraordinary……

Are we getting a little traction in our segment with the SM getting beat up? Feels good! 🙂

“Robot coal miners”

Someday in the future blue haired leftists will be screaming and carrying signs saying: “DONT EXPLOIT THE ROBOTS THEY ARE SENTIENT BEINGS!” 🙂

It feels like the bond vigilantes and the stock market are both on the precipice…..

Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some sort of announcement over the weekend…

… all the lying cheating and backstabbing have led them to their Waterloo … as the weak and not so bright Iranians

(to quote The Donald) are not backing down … and neither are the bond vigilantes … that’s why I love gold …

… the look of it … taste of it … the smell of it … the texture … chuckle.

Monday could be an interesting day for the stock and bond markets depending on what happens over the weekend.

Mornin all

How great would it be if the pm sector held up today with the SM down, oil, rates and the dollar up?

It doesn’t seem likely just yet, but I think ultimately there’ll be a rotation into pm’s.

maddog – I guess we’ll know we’re in the soup when rates go up and the dollar starts falling, but I think that would be great for gold because it would signal a distrust of gov’t. debt.

Robots will be the answer to coal…even early ones being ‘driven’ by operators above the ground, then we get the automated self driven ones….working 24/7, no matter how far down…..would be worth buying a few coal stocks and putting them in a draw…..as soon no one will give a damn about Co’2 etc…..

Robots will be able to produce vast amounts real cheap.

As to the Tar Baby….I see no signs of worry on Goldie or Tousi…..they reckon the plan is working just fine……ysdty they said the Regime is putting 12 year olds on the check points….that was what Adolf was reduced in the final days…..that is a Regime getting desperate.

Breaking up from large bull flag….ie rates are going way further…..which means Oil may not fall v soon…or not fall too far.

Weekend headlines will be all bad…shame .

Seems like eventually the coal reserves in GB and the US are going to be tapped, made into fuel or to power the power plants. It will be a necessity. That is unless technology unlocks some new sources of energy, fusion or something else.

This Iran war is turning into a bigger tar baby than Trump and his advisors were thinking. Hopefully the Republicans don’t get wiped out in the mid terms! If American soldiers are being killed on the ground that will be a giant negative.

We don’t have elections until 2029, the current government, if u can call it that, will never step down early……so we wait…..but come 2029 things will change big time.

We were hanging in there until London opened and then the three amigo’s – oil, the dollar and rates woke up and pissed in the Cheerios. All higher now with rates above 4.45%. Remember, 4.5% rates are the jumping point, as in off the SM cliff. Markets desperately need the war to end as we escalate with ground troops while talking about a deal. There’s the rub, everyone who talked deal with Witkoff and Kushner was assassinated. So, no more talking to them, they want JD Vance.

Would be nice if the 200 dma’s held, but I think there’s little hope of that with the SM in trouble. So how low can we go? Always a lot lower than we ever think possible.

But, Bitcoin is down 3% too now, so nothing is working.

And….silver is the first to buckle, who wouldda thought?