OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Were hearing a lot about possible recession coming. 12 to 18 months after the un- inversion time line to late 26 to mid 27.

I found this.

• • Average Lag: Historical studies tracking the normalization (steepening) of the curve show that downturns typically begin within 7 months of the un-inversion. [1]
  • Range: The time gap between the curve turning positive again and the start of a recession has historically ranged from as short as 2 months (such as prior to the 2001 recession) to as long as 14 months (before the 1990 downturn). [1]
  • Initial Inversion vs. Reversion: While market watchers often cite a 12 to 15 month average lag measured from the start of the original inversion, looking at the subsequent un-inversion often signals a tighter window for near-term economic stress.

Further I found with the S&P can remain profitable at first slowing during later months in one year and a down turn in another.

The S&P 500 historically shows short-term resilience immediately following a yield curve un-inversion, but often experiences mid-to-long-term underperformance as the economy edges closer to a recession. While a yield curve inversion acts as a long-term warning radar, the un-inversion process (when the spread between long- and short-term yields shifts back above 0%) is historically the real “countdown clock” for economic shifts. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Historical data on the S&P 500’s average performance following an un-inversion reveals a distinct timeline: [1]

🕒 S&P 500 Performance Timeline After Un-Inversion

• 3 Months Later: +4.9% average return. The index has historically been positive in 80% of studied cycles during this immediate 90-day window, demonstrating a brief “last gasp” or relief rally.

• 6 Months Later: +2.2% average return. Momentum begins to stall significantly as macro pressures mount.

• 12 Months Later: +2.8% average return. This is vastly lower than the S&P 500’s baseline historical average 12-month return of over 9%. [1, 2, 3]

⚖️ The Underlying Economic Reality

The primary reason the un-inversion period triggers a slower market environment is its strong historical correlation with the onset of recessions. [1]

• The Recession Lag: Historically, a recession begins an average of 7 months after the yield curve un-inverts.

• Historical Extremes: Performance can vary wildly depending on whether the economy achieves a “soft landing” or enters a severe crisis. For example, the S&P 500 posted a massive +23.1% 12-month gain following the 1980 un-inversion cycle, but suffered a steep -17.3% drop over the 12 months following the 2001 un-inversion as the dot-com bubble unraveled. [1, 2]

Would you like to look closer at specific historical examples (like 1989 or 2007), or see how the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts typically align with these un-inversion windows? [1, 2]

papertradingjournal.com

What Happens After the Yield Curve Un-Inverts?

Jun 11, 2026 — The average time from yield curve un-inversion to recession was 7 months. The longest lag between un-inversion and recession was 14 months before the 1990 reces…

Barron’s

The ‘Yield Curve’ Briefly Turned Normal. What It Means for Stocks.

Sep 4, 2024 — Among the six instances over that period, the index gained four times, each time by a double-digit percentage. … There were two instances of losses. One of th…

Northwestern Mutual

What a Yield Curve Inversion Means for Investors – Northwestern Mutual

Apr 15, 2022 — share Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Share via Email. The trickle of headlines about a yield curve inversion has turned into a steady stream of …

11m

S&P 500 ROI After Yield Curve Inversion

After yield curve inverts, stocks typically have 18 months before doom

Aug 14, 2019 — 30, 2005. The market posted a cumulative gain of 18.4% in the 18 months thereafter, but returned intensifying losses after 1½ years. Echoing Golub’s analysis, B…

5:55

What Is An Inverted Yield Curve And How Does It Affect The Stock Market?

The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve – Investopedia

Apr 27, 2025 — Key Takeaways * A yield curve illustrates the interest rates on bonds of increasing maturities. * An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term debt instrument…

Yahoo Finance

Yield Curve Inversion: A Bad Sign for Stocks – Yahoo Finance

Apr 12, 2023 — Yield Curve Inversions–Past and Present … Typically, the shorter the time to maturity, the lower the yield. … The table below shows why an inverted yield c…

YouTube·Ryan O’Connell, CFA, FRM

5:02

Yield Curve Inversion Explained: Why Markets Watch It Before …

StocksBNB

S&P 500 tends to underperform following US yield curve un inversion

Oct 2, 2023 — It has been over a year since the yield curve for US treasuries became inverted, where the short-term 2 Year treasury yield is higher than the long term 10-Year…

More insight of the stable coins. First part explains what they’re up to and it’s no good in a callous way like how they profit over pandemics  and about 8:50 minutes near the end how stable coins surveillance can nose itself into private accounts. Those in other countries should see this, it could affect them too.

Just an aside, that fellow has a lot of Mexican operations. I like to try and limit my exposure there. Probably just paranoid …

I also thank you for that posting that article.
Some things to consider

This is a metals site so of course we’re going to share info. At the same time most of us by are in another time zone than the young who have a longer time to wait although I’d Argue why should they have to wait for everybody else doing what they do because they’re expected to lose like they did combined with thinking they know better when they let something like that happen apparently they don’t. It’s more like misery spreads misery that could of been avoided.

At the same time because pretty much  everybody else that’s in the market for years and including AI is expecting a crash between. 27 and 28. To keep that in mind  when chosing stocks at this point along with the memory of these miners who hold debt or non producers dependent on loans, funding or someone  buying their finds like Dolly like explorers. Because in 08 and even before they took all their money in these mines no longer trading. Also during A crash if it’s going to put someone in a situation they would have to sell either phyzz or stocks because loss income wind up selling for a loss. Also remember trying to sell when the crash hits. We might see a bull market ahead but it might come with a drop zone first.

You bet! That guys owns a lot of different ones!

The droughts have ended? At least when daughter and the guys drove to Orlando for universal. They didn’t go one day because of the lightening. Another day they went the coaster side had to close for awhile because of the lightening so the went to the other side and were soaked by the time they got there but had change of cloths in thr car. I guess is multi parks now from the two  sides when I took her when she was a kid in 2000. There over in the fort Meyers or something area now. Had to remind them of tile change when they call at 4:40 am Calif time.

Thanks for sharing! Always good to have some new ideas…..

Brian Wilkes
@BrianGoodner
Updated Silver miner rankings after I have done more extensive analysis comparing miners. After more research and looking at some more companies I will update with more comments.

Keep in mind, this is based on my risk profile, what kind of upside I want, etc. One could easily say Hecla, Couer, Pan American and First Majestic are the best ones to own (and for me, I own them all, but they have less upside..and less torque when Silver goes up).

Endeavor Silver (huge upside, moderate risk producer)

Aya Gold & Silver (huge upside lower risk producer)

Santacruz Silver (huge upside, moderate risk producer)

Avino Gold & Silver (huge upside, lower risk producer)

Viszla Silver (huge upside, moderately high risk late stage developer – production first half 2027)

– these next 3 are very close depending on what you are looking for

Discovery (considerable upside, huge Silver deposit they are developing and bought a producing Gold mine (Porcupine) from Newmont to help with financial position, moderate risk)

Silvercorp Metals (nice upside, but not as much as above lower risk producer, nice financial position)

America’s Gold & Silver (nice upside, though not as much as top 5, moderate risk producer)

Hycroft (enormous upside, but very volatile, very leveraged to Silver price even though they will be more of a Gold producer, 51 year mine life, but still early in development so that presents some risks. If you’ve owned this stock and watch the price action, it can really move, but it is volatile and has already gone up a lot).. in some ways, even though the project is in Nevada, I feel this is a risky play, and it’s not near producing at all. But I wouldn’t fault people for putting it anywhere in the rankings.)

Hecla – I used to have First Majestic higher but after my recent updated analysis I have to put this one spot higher. It’s just a low risk huge Silver producer. First Majestic is higher risk due to location.

First Majestic – I place this and Hecla higher than Couer and Pan American simply because I am more interested in Silver and those two are primarily Gold mines with about 30% Silver. Hecla and First Majestic are primarily Silver mines

Highlander (This will probably move up above Hecla, First Majestic and possibly Hycroft but I just started looking at it and did my first detailed analysis…but huge deposit, considerable upside, high Silver leverage)

Silverco – (This is a new add, so I may move it around the more I look at it, but I like it. Enormous upside. Restarting Cusi Silver mine in Mexico, starting production, ramping up in 27, relatively low historical AISC (in the mid $20 range. One big plus is it has huge insider backing. 38% by founders and 18% by Eric Sprott, I would normally say it is higher risk, but it’s more moderately high given it’s a restart and the huge insiders)

Guanajuato is one I think would be firmly in the top 10 if they didn’t have their recent high AISC in their results, but at the same time I understand their strategy of using Capex now to become more efficient and bring down the cost later as they incorporate the new mine purchased from Endeavor. Might as well get things running as cost efficient as possible while the Silver price is likely a lot lower than it will be a year from now.

My guess is that within 6 months, this jumps back up into the top 10, probably 7 or 8.

The next two that I would say I like, and much of the reason is because of their stock performance, is New Pacific Metals and Silver Storm. I need to analyze them both a little more closely to decide if they make top 15 for me. Same goes with Silver X and Silver One Resources.

And then I do have pretty good sized positions (for me) in Southern Silver and Honey Badger but Honey Badger is very high risk (though it does have backing by Eric Sprott and Rick Rule)..it’s a small market cap though so it can get kicked around in price. Southern Silver I had to buy because I think TheApeofGoldStreet knows his stuff, but I don’t personally have as high as conviction. I will say the price seems to move. But it’s an early developer and it does have decent upside, but at the same time they are looking for a JV deal, or possibly will get bought out, so that cools off the excitement a bit on that one.

My other holdings, in order of size are Blackrock, Silver Tiger, Silver Mountain, GoGold, Andean Silver, Kuya, Impact, Excellon.

I will likely pick back up GR Silver next, and then Apollo and Outcrop. I do also like Chesapeake and Skeena but they are only about 30% Silver, Chesapeake is years from production, but they do have enormous upside. Skeena is a little different. They are a junior near term producers which I like but they also don’t have near the upside of most all in my list except for Hecla and First Majestic. Their upside is not at the multiples I am looking for. And their stock price is near it’s high I believe. This obviously means it’s a strong company and probably a good core holding especially if you like Gold, given it’s 70% Gold.

I had dropped all those because I needed to rotate some funds, being fully allocated, and GR, Apollo, Outcrop, Aftermath and Chesapeake will not be in production until the 2030s (GR maybe more like 2029).

Well I think that’s all my miner analysis and work for the week. Feels like it was a lot. Have a great weekend everyone and after Labor Day volume should pick up on the markets which should help the Comex especially where Silver trading is thin, giving the banksters an easier time with manipulating it. Hopefully Silver and Gold start moving this month. I think it’s going to happen. Those call options from big money for Silver in October and Gold in December I think may be hinting at something….that someone in the know is positioning early.

https://x.com/BrianGoodner/status/2096066843374944310

You can see it much better in real time here. I’m watching both. The other one gonna miss California but probably shut down the coastal cruises to Mexico Riviera.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=7.6,-155.6,4.13z

They are going to get some wind and rain, but hopefully damage will be minimal.  A lot depends upon how much forecast ‘wiggle’ there is to this turn.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp4+shtml/060232.shtml?cone#contents

Even on the East side of the Big Island where I am we will get a lot of rain Sunday from fringing effects of Karina passing to the north.  It’s warm & humid… “hurricane breath” weather.

Brought home and restored
https://www.railpictures.net/photo/911297/

CV19 Vax Victims Need Testing & Treatment – Dr. Peter McCullough

I didn’t mention In case you didn’t see the end of Catherine video I don’t post two months ago because it would of probable made no sense or seem as a conspiracy theory but  hopefully it remains a choice to use it for trade transactions not to forced on us like the first video suggest which could cause the legal and constitutional pushbacks like Catherine mentioned it was meant to be a choice. We have enough political headaches already. The first video he has much information brings it straight and direct but keep in mind and get second opinions like Catherine because I suspect there might be a CCP bias. Until proven otherwise

Et tu Heinz Ketchup. Even Ketchup.

If they don’t they don’t.

They think they’re being clever by cheating and playing dirty. Don’t have accountability by those pesky rules and regulations backed by the constitution by merging with the public sector like they did with Twitter FB, and again like they did with Covid. They couldnt bully non government employees but could bribe like hospital management or scare some of the private sector management and Governors.  That is predictable.

Pass it up at your own risk and you’ll likely get blindsided by something you were not even aware was coming. Sng

As he says, it’s being tested and there is no question that it will be implemented. The only question is how soon, but it’s all ready. Time to accumulate cash if you want an alternative to being totally controlled. Sng

We need to do this. We can’t just let Iran hit us without consequences.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iranian-tanker-reportedly-hit-missiles-near-kharg-island

Last July warned of the programmable money, stable coins and that CBDC was just a diversion. She also in the begining of this video got a clip of a member of the central bank so bold no longer hiding their intentions, that they will soon have achieved  survalence and control over your money and the technology to do it. Until the data center go by the way of the georgia guidestones or a grid failure. Hasn’t the UK already established digital ID under some misleading context? I wonder how they’re going to pull it off in the US?

He has many interesting videos. But a real person. The recession everyone is expecting is not a villain someone named and  has a calendar date. A financial reset. What industries will be involved.

That is no joke it’s a real possibility when electricity demand could double in demand in a couple of years. What’s more concerning is why it’s happening. They are rolling out ” programmable money right under our noses. Not just all the data centers being build but the legislation that is not what we think it is, the genius act, the clarity act. There is a bigger issue going on than the worry about the devaluation of currency, but if that money is no longer yours, or say in your control. Don’t look for it under the term CBDCs. This video about a month old goes into August and where legislation is in the works right now. What did the Fed say? They’ve got work to do alright.

LOL All Hail AI the Great! Bow at his visage!