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In the US, El Niño generally creates favorable weather conditions—such as milder temperatures and increased summer precipitation—in the Midwest, which helps boost average soybean yields. Historically, strong El Niño years result in record or near-record US soy production, with yields projected to increase by 2% to over 5%. [1, 2, 3, 4]
However, there are several nuances and risks associated with these weather patterns:
Heat and Pest Stress: Despite overall positive impacts, farmers may face challenges during a “super” El Niño, including insect and disease pressure, weed management, and heat stress, particularly if temperatures exceed critical thresholds. [1, 2]
General Market Dynamics: While US crops may see a boost, farmers are also navigating an agricultural economic climate affected by high fuel and fertilizer costs. Additionally, US soybean prices could experience volatility due to domestic biofuel and international export demands. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Global Variations: Conversely, while US and South American soy crops tend to benefit from these patterns, El Niño can negatively impact production in other regions, such as parts of Asia.
So wheat, barley, cotton and peanut crops could be at risk.
Specific agricultural impacts vary regionally across the US:
The Midwest & Corn Belt: El Niño promotes an active subtropical jet stream that delivers timely summer rains. This moisture—combined with a lower chance of crop-killing heat domes during critical corn pollination periods—often yields near-record harvests. [1, 2, 3]
The South & Mississippi Delta: While beneficial for early planting, excess rainfall can cause flooding, delay fall harvests for crops like cotton and peanuts, and increase the risk of plant diseases. [1, 2]
The Pacific Northwest: This region tends to experience warmer and drier weather, which can stress wheat and barley crops and increase wildfire risks. []
California: Increased winter and spring precipitation can help replenish reservoirs for specialty crops, though intense downpours can occasionally damage orchards and vegetable fields. [1, 2]
Btw that reminds me, if El Nino brings wetter weather in the west and dryer weather in the north and mid west I’m going to have to see how that might affect crops next year.
There are many factors that can influence interest rates besides inflation. Using truflation of about 4% (3.5 now),it does not seem a significant problem. Again, though, that is past history. Charts predict future situations imo.
As far as nat gas, I am thinking more about overseas demand, not U.S.
I pay close attention to the weather as my main positions are in the grain market.
If they raise the interest rates because there is inflation it will affect more than just the miners. I believe in charts but they only reflect after the fact of news and what metal paper traders will do. I appreciate your being one who watches charts as well as Maddog.
If your thinking about gas for winter keep in mind that according to the weather experts were in a El Nino this year. That usually according to what usually happens will bring warner winters to the north, east and mid west and cooler rainy winters to the warmer western states like Calif that could use the rain anyways. They might want to check their dams make sure they are ready. Heat will still be needed but not like the really cold winters.
Eliminate the knee jerk reactions of the market paper traders which can be apparently wrong at times when you see the long term picture but as far as stocks vs phyzz you can hedge or get out. They are a headache and can make it difficult for bullion dealers and miners not to mention investors.
Are the only things I pay attention to. Trying to interpret possibly incorrect news and determining its impact is too sketchy for me.
Another thing along those lines is that price should confirm the narrative. So far the nat gas price has not confirmed the narrative of shortages. However I am following the chart carefully as I have 5 positions that hinge primarily on a winter rally in nat gas. If the chart doesn’t confirm that narrative soon, I will be forced to take either small losses or perhaps small gains.
As far as interest rates go, I have opened a position in BND, if it goes according to my chart interpretation interest rates will not rise. I realize government paper is not as low risk as it once was, so there is that.
With the volatile market we have to pay attention to the market movers and the Fed. Back in May it seemed the miners were moving away from the whirlpool and moving back up but then stronger-than-expected US ” better than expected” employment report caused markets to price in higher interest rates. That pushed the dollar up and futures speculation despite being industrial unwinded.
Mike Pento gave a compelling argument why the new Fed chair won’t hike interest rates but it will depend on data how the market interprets it. Then it’s up to you to decide whether your picking up shares or phyzz at a discount or not based on whether you think their interpretation is correct or not.
War Radar
@War_Radar2
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4h
JUST IN: 🇹🇷🇷🇺🇺🇸 SHOCKING DEFENSE U-TURN: Turkey Dumps Russia’s S-400 to Unlock America’s F-35 Stealth Jets
Turkey has sold its Russian S-400 air defense system to a Gulf country, possibly the UAE or Qatar, in what could be one of the biggest strategic shifts in years.
The reported move is widely seen as an attempt to remove the main obstacle preventing Ankara’s return to the U.S. F-35 program. Washington has long argued that operating the Russian made S-400 alongside the F-35 could compromise the stealth fighter’s highly classified technology.
If confirmed, the deal could signal a major reset in U.S. Turkey defense ties, strengthen Ankara’s chances of acquiring F-35s, and reshape the military balance in the Middle East.
New Viewmagazine was first published in 1996 and today is an independent initiative offering a fresh look at the world and ourselves. New View is a quarterly magazine published at Easter, Midsummer, Michaelmas and Christmas. The four seasons and their related festivals provide a context for contemporary events, issues and insights shared through its pages. Four times a year, New View brings together a unique collection of articles on many aspects of modern life, informed and inspired by the work and world view of Rudolf Steiner (1861-1925) which he called anthroposophy. Focusing on issues of the day, its pages contain features, articles, interviews, book and film reviews. Regular items include: World events, Community, Health, Education, Self-development, Arts, Science, Environment, Biodynamic-Agriculture, Book and Film Reviews and much more. New View contains contributions that look to the deeper background and rhythms inherent in world and personal events. Its authors recognise the spiritual content woven into the material world and seek to build a bridge whereby the reader can experience the creative harmony between art, science and the religious, spiritual, life.
He talks about the Fed but various things including hikes being unaffordable. Seems to me since the Fed keeping interest rates low for the wall streets to buy up the properties then rent them out because of the agenda is you will own nothing.
Gold that during war or economic crash gold doesn’t come into play until after it’s over to buy assets and rebuild but not what’s happening with manipulation you will own nothing socialism agenda. They’re manufacturing things like land and housing becoming too high with open borders vs supply and keeping low interest rates for too long for big money to buy up all the property to rent driving prices up maybe was no accident.
Rosland seem shady anyways. This volatility might weed out the laissez faire and corrupt. Like the difference from them to someone like Andy Schectman who talked about the headache with volatility, explaining why they had to stop buying junk silver because if the time involved in processing it and having to hedge the possibility of the price falling but was managing it and people got their money or their phyzz.
Buying too close to the top or delivery going too far out it’s risky anyways but depends on who your buying from. They should outlaw promising to deliver phyzz they don’t have and returning the money after a period of time should be on the books or promise to pay the phyzz they buy without the capital to pay them then instead of returning it and keeping or selling is criminal. Otherwise another will pop up and if people got ripped off by these places then sell their client list the clients should tell them to F off and put them on the no buy or sell to them list.
Do we really need to spend all that money and risk put upon US military to escort all those ships mostly carrying oil, Petro, natural gas with the probability that most of the benefactors will be around Europe who does nothing and we can produce our own.
Absolutely true. No confirmation of the bottom yet using GDX and normal basic chart techniques. Nonetheless, I am nearly fully positioned, though some may still dip a bit lower. Any that do not conform to this outlook will be sold. I might have a few small losses. The slow stochastics needs to turn up convincingly and the price needs to get above the 18 day sma and then test it for a simple confirmation on GDX though that is not one of my buys.
Simple tech without reading candles which could change by the days end in a volutioe environment. Draw a line over the top the candles from the early year highs down to now. It hasn’t broken out yet and can hope further selling will get quickly bought and shorts are covering it starts at least moving sideways until then besides the small moves up or back down again keep a eye on that line.
The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
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2h
BREAKING: Initial reports of a high level targeted assassination in Ahvaz, targeting Alireza Khodadadi, a senior advisor to the IRGC Vali-e-Asr command in Khuzestan Province, Iran.
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