So everyone is clear. the FED will never, ever jack rates with a long end that is collapsing and a yield curve that is getting crushed. You are delusional if you think that will happen.

I’m confused. How do you do the visual text? Is it easy for you to explain?  I’m pretty crappy on the computer unless I’m looking at charts etc.. on the internet.  TIA

Yeah leave it to Farmboy to give such a thoughtful gift. That’s going to go over real well.

Perfect. Thanks for the tape !

🙂

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-22/stocks-slide-nato-condemns-russian-invasion-warns-alarming-build-forces

Gold spot thinks so!

NEMO

Popped to green. It’s been the leader. Go figure.

Seems like pm’s are trading more inverse the SM than with currencies, although that seems to change from day to day.

Top U.S. military brass warns ISIS has ‘apocalyptic, end-of-days’ plan that can’t be stopped without attacks in Syria

Mark Wilson / Getty ImagesU.S. Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel (left) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey speak to the media during a press briefing at the Pentagon on Thursday.

About the only thing I can really count on these days is being picked on by ‘that woman’. Have to say, at least she is consistent. Hoping gold and silver can pull off the seasonal rally this year. But like I said, there aint much a man can count on anymore. Well, except for the Gubbernment to do really stupid things. Guess we can continue to trust in that too. 🙂

OK, I admit I have picked on you maybe once or twice. Thought I would send you something to try and patch things up betwixt us. Friends? No more bewitching spells? You gonna behave yourself? Play nice perhaps? Well….lets give it a try …here goes.

🙂

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/3742890977001

the currency posts.

Gold does indeed track yen/$, that is 100% undeniable. The bigger question is the following…will it stay that way ad infinitum?

Gold is a currency that trades irrespective of supply and demand. The demand part is more transparent these days but the supply side is not. Sprott will tell you that for free.

But we can ignore supply and demand for awhile as well.

Can we ignore Japan’s fiscal situation ad infinitum? Big sovereigns have no default mechanism. If they tell the world we will not pay they crush the globe.

At some point in the near future the world will be forced to look at Japan and ask what comes next and it will more than likely serve as the template. That is probably when gold de-couples from this cozy relationship.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000296912&play=1

I have a great deal of respect for this track record. Stanley has great vision and is certainly a very smart man but as smart as he sounds I cannot help but wonder how it is he does not see the fatal flaw in his logic.

Sovereign debt levels have gone parabolic globally. Look at what happened to the periphery in Europe when borrowing costs reflected normalcy? Kyle Bass has stated that a 100 to 150 basis point move in borrowing costs for Japan makes it mathematically impossible to service the debt.

So, what you have here in these sovereign entities is the end game for debt that cannot be extinguised by gold. ZIRP is the new normal. Sure rates can oscillate everywhere but Japan within a low range but you get above a certain level and it is all over. This is where I believe Armstrong has it wrong. Corporations are no place to hide in a Western sovereign default. Corporations require the government teet. Corporations hold government debt. Corporations rely on government employees to buy their products. Look at the disclaimer from Wal Mart if food stamps are cut.

With all due respect Stanley, the FED and every government is praying for double digit inflation.

Russian Humanitarian Convoy Enters Ukraine Without Authorization; Ukraine Considers Move “Direct Invasion”

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/22/2014 06:42 -0400

Update 3: Ukraine’s president speaks:

• UKRAINE CONCERNED OVER RUSSIAN AID CONVOY INTRUSION: POROSHENKO
• UKRAINE SEEKS TO AVOID ‘HEAVIER CONSEQUENCES’: POROSHENKO

And yet the locals seem happy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-22/russian-humanitarian-convoy-enters-ukraine-without-authorization-ukraine-considers-m

CME Group Lowers Margins For Gold, Silver, PGMs, Copper
By Kitco News
Friday August 22, 2014 7:35 AM
(Kitco News) – CME Group is lowering margins for Comex gold, silver and platinum group metals futures, and the new rates will be effective as of the close of business on Friday, according to a notice from CME Group late Thursday.
They also lowered copper margins, but those will be effective as of the close of business Monday.
The exchange operator said the changes were the result of “the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”
Margins act as collateral on futures trades. CME Group also changed margins for electricity, crude oil, natural gas futures and a number of other products.
In the case of the main 100-ounce gold-futures contract, CME Group trimmed the “initial” margin for new speculative trades to $5,060 from $5,940. The “maintenance” margin for existing speculative trades, plus all hedge positions, was cut to $4,600 from $5,400.
For the 5,000-ounce silver contract, CME Group lowered the initial speculative margin to $7,150 from $8,250. The margin requirement for maintenance speculative positions, plus all hedge trades, was lowered to $6,500 from $7,500.
For the palladium contract, CME Group lowered the initial speculative margin to $3,575 from $4,125. The margin requirement for maintenance speculative positions, plus all hedge trades, was lowered to $3,250 from $3,750.
For the platinum contract, CME Group lowered the initial speculative margin to $2,310 from $2,750. The margin requirement for maintenance speculative positions, plus all hedge trades, was lowered to $2,100 from $2,500.
For the copper contract, CME Group lowered the initial speculative margin to $2,860 from $2,970. The margin requirement for maintenance speculative positions, plus all hedge trades, was lowered to $2,600 from $2,700.
CME Group also lowered the margins for the smaller-sized gold, silver and copper products, as well as aluminum and iron ore.

Currency Indicators
-> Posted by Matrix @ 20:24 pm on August 21, 2014 No Comments
These indicators are the only 4 we use to keep on the correct side of the trend, no trendlines, no Fib, no EWave and NO OPINIONS!!

$YEN

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p11089779166&a=359614930&listNum=1

$GOLD

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p18325790784&a=357435141&listNum=1

You’ll notice the tweaked shorter term Traders version of the traditional TSI and MACD…if I was allowed only 1 indicator to follow it would be the standard TSI….you’ll never pick a bottom or top but you will be holding long and short positions on the correct side of the trend in play.

Apply it to your fav stock you trade and see if your trades would have been different from the indicators your currently using.

$Silver short vs Gold short YTD
-> Posted by Matrix @ 21:14 pm on August 21, 2014 No Comments
With the War Drums in play % gains being short Gold YTD has been a very difficult trade as Gold is a safe haven currency trade for Big money….sorry SilverBuggers your not!

If one is going to short the pm’s sector Silver is a less riskier trade as last Fri proved when Gold popped on Ukraine news while silver laid flatlined.

All it takes is a comment from NATO regarding aggressive Russian activity and a $25 pop in gold unfolds in no time….shorting gold during Armstrong’s highlighted War Cycle is a very risky trade.

IF gold closes below $1240 and the war drums are fading perhaps a trade will unfold, until then Silver is a better short trade.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p53854910258&a=364688442&listNum=1

$EURO
-> Posted by Matrix @ 21:39 pm on August 21, 2014 No Comments
For those not following Armstrong he has a par call for the Euro$, possible, you bet!
For now on the chart Mr Market has shown us the 127 level is a key area. Lets look at Golds action when the $Euro has fallen to that 127 area

134 to 127 during 2013

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&st=2013-06-15&en=2013-07-11&id=p23421794687&a=362100230&listNum=1

EURO$ action

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70494084110&a=364692744&listNum=1

$YEN Radar watch
-> Posted by Matrix @ 21:51 pm on August 21, 2014 No Comments
Here are some links worth the read, “IF” $Yen is to continue its devaluation Gold will trade below $1000…unless WW3 unfolds first, well who knows where Golds low will be as we look up from watching the indicators on $Yens chart….

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-16/japan%E2%80%99s-keynesian-demise-cautionary-tale-our-times

This is how a much, much lower $Yen could unfold….AND a much higher US equity index, like the S&P500…@…3000 as Armstrong suggests….=Big Money flows

www.cnbc.com/id/101915671

LIQUIDITY is the #1 risk for big money, all those calling for the US$ to collapse, well I can tell you from within the FX markets Mr US$ is all about parking liquidity. A much lower Euro$ along with the continued weakness in the SF and another big move lower for $Yen and unless the big players become GoldBugs overlooking the lack of liquidity in the gold market Gold will trade lower…that’s not an opinion, that’s what the big boyz have painted on the charts recently so its all about price, not opinion!

Good evening fellow chartist
-> Posted by Matrix @ 20:16 pm on August 21, 2014 3 Comments
Spending 22 years in the Forex business had my ego believing that everything revolved around currency values, now that I’ve been retired for the past 12 years I realize I was 100% correct.

I’m going to highlight key currencies that act as a Windsock indicators as to where Gold trades. The #1 chart reflecting Golds action is $YEN…have a look at Golds action since the devaluation of the Yen unfolded. Sept 2012 Gold is trying to regain the $1800 level as $Yen trades @ 129 with the Japanese equity market at 8500. Over the next 9 months $Yen devalues 30 pips as the Nikkei tags on a gain of 88% while Gold falls $600 creating the Chop trade zone between $1400 and $1200

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p91758247992&a=348679109&listNum=1

The next Monthly chart shows the trading zone $Yen and Gold have been in since the big dive spring of 2013

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=M&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11671480024&a=363506812&listNum=1

Looking back YTD on the daily action one can see the major resistance zone of which Gold is turned back from a true bullish breakout….the key 99 level for $Yen….this chart suggested exiting ALL long positions in the pm’s sector last week as the indicators we currency traders use rolled over.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p52119927500&a=362766893&listNum=1

This chart highlights where Gold could make its final low off a tag of 92 $Yen or 78

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98282004533&a=327691327&listNum=1

http://www.libertynewsonline.com/article_310_35726.php

Seems like Chuck Bagel might be pulling another Cayce…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-21/chuck-hagel-goes-full-fearmonger-isis-poses-greater-threat-911-prepare-everything

yep .. good comebacks … we will know soon. or later the direction of the real ..the economy stinks , unemployment is going up …wages going down,  prices for things are  probably pushing 10% as food, and rents , most everything is going up in price … so we will just watch .. and watch..

ment

“gold will just do what it will do” ….yep .and it will continue to be stable in the storm, tis the fiat dollar currency which is unstable.

Every fiat currency has failed eventually

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bex2fVIiiN4

gold can’t LOL     silverngold where will gold go before it goes up  ?    or just drift sideways for another 3 months

rick ackerman is just reading his pivot charts and basis his gold price on that chart …

but rick can be wrong  Bo has now been proven wrong …. gold will just do what it will do .. paper can be twisted in every shape ..