Loading ...Having a problem with Ground squirrels,& REGULAR SQUIRRELS eating my trucks wiring and gas lines causing several gas leaks wiring problems engine light on problems, all caused by rodents chip minks mostly ..little rodents with white stripes lateraly .I tried mouse traps,sticky boards,poison bait ,spraying vinegar,bleach etc.$1500 DAMAGE SO FAR…Everything except what other animals do …marking my territory ..thats next..
Future “inflation” and the Fed’s madness
Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Posted Aug 17, 2014
Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 7th August 2014.
Prior to 2002 the Fed would tighten monetary policy in reaction to outward signs of rising “price inflation” and loosen monetary policy in reaction to outward signs of falling “price inflation”, but beginning in 2002 the Fed became far more biased towards loose monetary policy. This bias is now so great that it seems as if the Fed has become permanently loose.
The following chart comparing the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) target set by the Fed with the Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) clearly illustrates the change in the Fed’s tactics over the past two decades. The Future Inflation Gauge is calculated monthly by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) and should really be called the Future CPI Gauge, because it is designed to lead the CPI by about 11 months.
The chart shows that prior to 2002 the FFR tended to follow the FIG. After the FIG warned of rising “price pressures” the Fed would start hiking the FFR, and after the FIG started signaling reduced upward pressure on the CPI the Fed would start cutting the FFR. (Note: Our chart begins in 1994, but the relationship between the FFR and the FIG that we just described goes back much further.) During 2002-2004, however, the Fed not only didn’t hike its targeted interest rate in response to a sharp increase in the FIG, it continued to cut the FFR.
The Fed’s decision to maintain an ultra-loose stance during 2002-2004 was the fuel for the real estate investment bubble and set the stage for the collapse of 2007-2009.
There was a lesson to be learned from what happened during 2002-2007, but the Fed clearly learned the wrong lesson. The lesson that should have been learned was: Don’t provide monetary fuel for bubble activities, because the eventual economic fallout will be devastating. Unfortunately, the lesson that was actually learned by the Fed was: An economic bust can be avoided forever by keeping monetary policy loose forever. The result is that the divergence between the FFR and the FIG that arose during the first half of the last decade is nothing compared to the divergence that is now in progress. The FIG has been working its way higher since early-2009 and just hit a 5-year high, while the Fed’s ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) remains firmly entrenched.
Zooming in on the shorter-term fluctuations, last year’s small decline in the FIG suggested that there wouldn’t be a significant increase in the CPI’s growth rate until at least the final few months of this year, while the rise in the FIG that began late last year suggests that “price inflation” will start to become apparent in the CPI during the final quarter of this year and could be perceived as a serious problem during the first half of next year. This probably means that by early next year the T-Bond bears will start to look correct and the Fed will start to feel irresistible pressure to begin a rate-hiking program. Unfortunately, the US economy is now so rife with ‘bubble activities’ (businesses, projects, investments and speculations that are only viable due to artificially low interest rates and a rapid stream of new money) that a severe downturn is likely to follow an attempt by the Fed to ‘normalise’ its monetary policy.
By ignoring investment bubbles and erring far more in favour of “inflation” than it has ever done in the past, the Fed has set the stage for the mother-of-all economic busts. If the bust doesn’t begin earlier it is likely to begin soon after the Fed starts to raise its targeted interest rate.
###
Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Hong Kong
The FED will raise rates when?
Three year chart.
Rates and the CRB are nose diving. Show me an instance where the FED jacked rates with a plunging long end coinciding with a plunging $CRB. This is a picture of an economy in a tailspin, not one that is about to take off.
If equities were not endlessly manipulated higher we would be witnessing a panicked deflationary scenario. the FED is miles from raising rates.
Does anyone wonder what’s going to happen here?
Hundreds of Taliban fighters battle Afghan forces near Kabul
(Reuters) – As many as 700 heavily armed Taliban insurgents are battling Afghan security forces in Logar, a key province near the capital Kabul, local officials said on Tuesday, in a test of the Afghan military’s strength as foreign forces pull out of the country.
Militants have this summer mounted increasingly intensive assaults across several provinces, often involving hundreds of fighters, as the country braces to stand on it own feet militarily for the first time in nearly 13 years.
more http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/19/us-afghanistan-taliban-offensive-idUSKBN0GJ0SV20140819
BG1 @ 11:10
We don’t know the truth yet. this is the story that I’m hearing. After robbing/shoplifting from the store, Brown and friend were walking down the middle of the street. Police car comes by and cop tells them to get off the street. Brown gives the cop some lip and refuses that order. Cop pulls up in front of them and as attempting to exit the cruiser gets rushed by Brown. Scuffle ensues inside the car with Brown punching the cop and going for his gun.
One shot fired from inside the car and shell casing found there. Brown then either starts walking or running away. Cop gets out of car and tells them to freeze. They turn around and then Brown rushes cop at full speed.
Maybe the cop thought this might happen
the “kid” was 6 ft 3″ and 300+ lb
nobody is rioting over what happened to this Deputy. The news coverage small.
Deputy Suffers “Life-Changing” Injuries in Mall Attack | NBC Southern California
Russian import ban fuels food price rises
Food prices are rising in parts of Russia and experts say the state embargo on imports of Western food appears to be making things worse.
Since the ban was imposed on 7 August imported pork used in processed meat in Moscow has gone up by 6%, Russian business daily Kommersant reports.
In St Petersburg food prices have risen 10%. That inflation occurred even before the impact of sanctions.
Russia’s ban on many Western foods is retaliation for sanctions over Ukraine.
The St Petersburg government’s economic policy chief, Anatoly Kotov, said the pork price had risen by 23.5% and chicken by 25.8%.
On Monday, Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said he did not expect the ban on food imports to lead to price rises or shortages in the shops. But he also said he hoped the ban – introduced for a year – would not last too long.
If you start pushing back on that your circle of friends begins to shrink — and quite quickly at that.
But it’s not because you’re wrong — it’s because people are uncomfortable with reality, and you’re refusing to put away the “real” card. You’re removing the Facebook patina of perfection, of hedonism, of narcissism and self-delusion.
What am I talking about? The fact that each and every one of you reading this, along with myself, consent to all of the below list each and every day:
- Every single act of felony assault when a cop in Ferguson points a weapon at a peaceful protester and is not immediately arrested and charged with the crime of assault with a deadly weapon.
- Every single act of altering the timing of yellow lights to generate intentional bogus violations that cannot be evaded due to the laws of physics, and which, when you are entrapped by happenstance of your presence, you must pay not a legitimate fine for misbehavior but instead literally have funds extorted from you.
- The violations of your Fourth Amendment rights on the road, in the airport and on the sidewalk in NY, Texas, Florida and elsewhere.
- The refusal of our government to recognize your fundamental right to life, that is the right to self defense through the keeping and bearing of the only device known to man that is effective in that regard, everywhere and anywhere without permit, license or other constraint up until you actually commit a criminal act by misusing same.
- The bankster fraud games in Jefferson County Alabama that are still costing people doubled (or more) water and sewer bills and will forever into the future, featuring court-proved acts of bribery.
- The bankster fraud games on Wall Street (including selling securities they self-described internally as “vomit” to people just like you through their pension funds and elsewhere) that caused the housing bubble and subsequent collapse. Despite literal trillions of intentionally-bogus securities being sold and millions of Americans being dispossessed of their homes and personal wealth not one bankster went to prison for any of it.
- The bankster fraud games on Wall Street that are still going on with derivatives, high-frequency trading and more, all of which has the effect of counterfeiting the currency you carry and spend on a daily basis — in effect committing what should be prosecuted as felony grand theft against you and counterfeiting against the nation each and every day.
- Hospitals billing people $10,000 for a $100 test without disclosing the price before the test is given, then suing to collect a ridiculously bogus charge.
- Hospitals billing a woman $60,000 for two $100 vials of scorpion anti-venom, preventing you from getting that anti-venom from anywhere else through threat of criminal penalty.
- Being forced to buy an “insurance” product (Obamacare) that isn’t actually insurance under threat of government force and confiscation of your funds (theft again.)
- Being sold ownership in property that you never actually own as you must rent it forever from the local and state government, and despite this fraud entire industries continue to use the word “sell.”
- Having your constitutionally-guaranteed freedom to travel trampled by demands that you be “licensed” to simply move your person and personal property by the ordinary means of the day.
- Having your 4th Amendment right to be left alone trampled by a government agency that lied directly to Congress about what they were doing, falsified the justification for same (that it “caught terrorists” when in fact it actually caught none), got caught in both lies (which is a criminal offense, incidentally) and yet nobody went to prison nor has the program been stopped and the data collected under said false pretense been purged.
- Having 3-4% of your purchasing power stolen each and every year on a compounded basis on average — sometimes more, some less, but never, not even once since 1980, has it not happened for as little as three consecutive months.
- Ridiculous bloat in the public schools you fund such that half or more of the money spent, and thus a huge chunk of your property taxes (which you pay either in rent or directly if you “own”) is literally stolen from you and given to people who perform no necessary service. In other words, you willingly allow yourself to be robbed each and every year.
- Ridiculous bloat in Universities such that your children get robbed again to the tune of 3, 4, 5 even 10x what it should cost to obtain a “post-secondary” education.
- Injury upon injury is also heaped upon your (adult) children, in concert with the previous point, through the inability to discharge student loan debt in bankruptcy, declaring by statute that this “obligation” has literally the same status as child support before the law.
- A Federal Government structure that, in concert with the above and more, literally steals about 2/3rds of the funds that flow into it via taxes and doles them out as patronage. In other words you have 2/3rds of any taxes you pay being not put to the use claimed but instead are stolen, and all of this is done only because the government implies the threat of using guns against you if you refuse to pay – an act that by any reasonable measure is a felony committed against every one of you.
Need I go on? I could literally write a book on the outrages, frauds and thefts you suffer on a daily basis. Hell, I have — I’ve written close to 8,500 such examinations and instances since 2007. Through all of this and more over the last decade you’ve seen your cost of living go up dramatically while the median family income has not improved at all. Not only has the technological advancement of the last 10 years, which should have resulted in you obtaining more purchasing power been stolen the theft didn’t stop there; it is in fact even greater!
We all know what the counter-argument is: I voted for someone and he or she may have even promised to change some of this, but didn’t. What am I supposed to do about it?
Ah, that’s the excuse you see. And it’s probably a good one — certainly it is in your mind, and it might even be objectively.
But it doesn’t change the fact that you consented and continue to consent each and every day!
Here’s the thing — even if the alternative(s) involve either intentionally driving yourself into privation or taking illegal action you still consented. That the alternative is distasteful enough for you to refuse to act on it, irrespective of the reason, doesn’t change the fact that you are giving consent to all of the above and will do so again today. It does not change the fact that each and every morning you will arise from your sleep and once again give that consent. You did so intentionally this morning, you will do so of your own free will tomorrow, and you will continue to do so in all probability every day next week, month and year.
Do remember that in 1776 the alternatives to that very same consent — an act of theft via taxation for the purpose of grift that was in fact less than 1/10th of what we consent to today — were very illegal. In fact the alternatives to that consent involved committing acts of vandalism, intentional destruction and theft of other people’s property, arson, and even murder.
You stand here in this place called America this morning because a bunch of people heard all the arguments you’ve raised about how they really should just go along with it because despite protesting via voting, writing letters to the editor, posting bills on trees and other forms of dissent they weren’t getting anywhere, and the remaining alternatives that were available to them had potential (indeed, even likely) costs that were too high.
Privation, prison, even death.
They did it anyway.
This is not advocacy for violence, by the way.
It is, however, an insistence that you, personally, each and every day, admit that you, personally, are consenting to every one of the above outrages and more because you refuse to stop them. It is an insistence that you be honest with yourself, your children, your friends and neighbors. It is an insistence that you not call something******of one’s dignity, civil rights and finances when in fact what happened is consensual sex. It is an insistence that you hold your head high and take credit for what you have in fact done and allowed to continue, each and every day.
Honesty is the first requirement of a civilized and rational people.
Are you ready to be honest with yourself today, or will you instead choose to continue to lie?
Wanka
just wonder why he felt threatened enough to shoot him at all vs. tazing him or something or waiting for back up. Seems there’s been an awful lot of excessive force used in the last few years.
OTOH, if this were a white kid we’d hear nothing about it and there probably wouldn’t be rioting.
Ferguson
People who are employed aren’t out protesting-rioting at 2 in the morning.
sbr
Assuming the OI is honest and correct, it would appear that the wipeout will be those on the long side who get crushed. I’m not sure I can ever remember a time when the commercials (banksters) took a big hit on their positions.
The question is why are they pressuring the price of silver so much? What is so important about silver?
The other question, why are the shares holding up so well with the metals weak?
Silver battleground is unprecedented
while everyone was giddy on the ride in 2011. What mattered most was the positioning and open interest and how it resolved.
Outside of a few gents no one is discussing silver’s current structure. We are at a multi-year price lows and open interest is indicative of a wipeout if past is future. Someone is going to lose and lose big here.
Portugeezer @ 4:47
I’m not going to say that the Michael Brown shooting was justified or not because we don’t really know that yet but I will say that if you feel your life is in danger then six shots will can out of your semi-auto pistol in a couple of seconds.
Looks like another day of “normal market action”
yeah right!
portugeezer
not only shot him six times but twice in the head.
Good morning Oasis
Tanzania Minerals Corp. announces completion of due diligence with Twigg Gold Ltd. on Igurubi and Msasa projects in Tanzania
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tanzania-minerals-corp-announces-completion-233000452.html
Gold Fields Sells Its 51% Stake in Peru’s Chucapaca Project to Buenaventura
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-fields-sells-51-stake-075300583.html
Roxgold Announces Approval of Environmental and Social Impact Assessment for the Yaramoko Gold Project
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roxgold-announces-approval-environmental-social-110000963.html
Silvercorp Reports Significant Gain in Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources at the Ying Silver-Lead-Zinc Mining District, Henan Province, China
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/silvercorp-reports-significant-gain-measured-124000700.html
Any doubt Europe and the US are instigating war with Russia?
Bulgaria Halts South Stream Pipeline Again As NATO F-15s, Troops Arrive
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2014 18:29 -0400
As we detailed previously, Bulgaria had been an enthusiastic supporter of the Russian-backed South Stream gas pipeline project, whose construction has stoked tensions between the West and Moscow as it enabled gas supply to bypass troubled Ukraine (thus squeezing the desparate economy back into Russia’s hands). In early June, Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski ordered an initial halt (after Europe offered the nation’s suddenly collapsing banking system a lifeline). This time, Energy Minister Vasil Shtonov has ordered Bulgaria’s Energy Holding to halt any actions in regards of the project as it does not meet the requirements of the European Commission. Of course, we assume this decision (to halt a 2nd time) is entirely independent of NATO’s deployment of 12 F-15s and 180 troops to Bulgaria’s Graf Ignatievo Air Base.
Right brain = Heaven – Left brain = Hell
Although this is tagged Robin Williams it’s really about us how we as individuals see things in the World around us. Reading this helps you get a grip on things.
I’m sure they’d send Holder if a white kid was shot – unbelievable
Ferguson Curfew Cancelled As National Guard Arrives; Holder Demands To “Remove The Damn Tanks”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2014 14:15 -0400
The Missouri Governor Jay Nixon gave “no heads up” to the White House before deploying The National Guard and has now made another abrupt decision as The National Guard closes in on Ferguson:
- *NIXON’S CALL TO HALT CURFEW TONIGHT MADE IN E-MAILED STATEMENT
We presume when there are military tanks rolling through the streets of a town, there is no need for the actual implementation of a curfew… This once again rubs the administration’s nose in it as AG Holder’s comments from last week hang in the air: “get those damned tanks out of there.”
The neighborhood has been under a midnight-to-5 a.m. curfew the past two days, after Nixon declared a state of emergency. That has now changed…
maddog
I got that link in an e-mail from floridagold and truthfully, I laughed my azz off! That was awesome!
I only hope that when I’m 84 after having been tortured for 40 years of pm’s I can have the same sense of humor!
Happy Hour: Maddog 15:59
…….. and “buy the SM dips” just keeps working ……… until it doesnt
Must say, this has been a tough few years for our camp.
I am happy to lay and wait and stack silver.
When silver’s ready to rip ……. she can really rip.
Worth the wait
Best Regards
Winedoc
So ends another perfect day
Lets do the checks.
Gold dn = Yup
Pm Sox dn/ flat = Yup…well almost
Bonds flat = Yup well nearly
Oil on its arse = Yup
SM well up = Yup
Sleep well children all is well in the World.