Posted by Maddog
@ 16:21 on February 26, 2020
You only need to understand 3 facts and have a modicum of numeracy to understand what the problem is. COVID-19 is:
*Very transmissable (R0 estimates vary but currently around 2.4-3.5 – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go…
*Spreads readily, even during the (up to 27-day) symptom-free incubation phase via droplets and aerosol (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go…
*Results in a serious or critical complication rate (requiring medical intervention) of around 20% (current John Hopkins University data)
Mathematical modelling suggests that should it gain a foothold here in the UK – quite possible given its transmission characteristics and the fact we have no mandatory restrictions or quarantine conditions on people arriving here from infected areas – we could expect up to 60% of the population to become infected within the first year.
Now some numbers:
Population of England = 60 million; 60% infection rate = 36 million, which is 3 million new cases per month
20% of these cases (600,000 per month) will require hospital intervention, and a quarter of these (150,000 per month) are likely to need critical care in ICU.
In England, there are 4084 intensive care beds (NHS data, Dec 2019), of which 75% are occupied. This leaves just over 1000 vacant ICU beds.
So for every 150 people needing intensive care (without which death will almost certainly occur), there will be one bed available and 149 will be sent home.
Even if the infection rate is just one tenth of what is modelled, these numbers will collapse the NHS in a few weeks.
That’s why it’s not ‘just flu’.
Posted by Maddog
@ 16:06 on February 26, 2020
they managed to push rates back up and knock AU 12 bucks with Kamikaze offers…but despite moving the peripheral mkts, the SM would not rally….so scum clearly bought all offers into the last 10 mins.
who else but the Fed would be slamming gold with this news around…..
Posted by Maddog
@ 15:20 on February 26, 2020
Posted by Buygold
@ 15:01 on February 26, 2020
I could see that. I’ll give it a listen. Do you happen to have a link handy?
Posted by newtogold
@ 14:07 on February 26, 2020
Do you listen to X22 Report? For a different perspective, listen to last night’s report. I have been following him for about two years. Tell me what you think of his viewpoints on this and other topics. It gives meaning to a lot of things occurring in the US and around the world.
Discretion is necessary but I believe this is just one in a long line of pandemics intentionally foisted on the populace for so many years now. Not saying it’s not dangerous but definitely, man-made and intentionally spread. It may be a great cover for the financial world economic collapse that is drawing near and a cover for the central bank system collapsing from the burden of so much debt.
Posted by Maddog
@ 14:00 on February 26, 2020
The Bulls have got a story again…we are all gonna be at home watching Netflix, once the virus hits….!!!!!!
Oh dear new lows for S&P….scum can’t hold it !!!!
Posted by Maddog
@ 13:55 on February 26, 2020
Yr right….but the authorities were not all in full hazmet suits, with that outbreak, or closing down whole cities etc….caution is worthwhile I think for a while yet.
Posted by Mr.Copper
@ 13:53 on February 26, 2020
Ok thanks. I was just looking thru a bunch of old gold eagle complementary responses to my posts and I thought TQ was maybe you. Brought back many memories. Seattle Sun, Bodie, TraderVic, Gold mountain, PMtrader, goldwizzard, sonof benson, 1912, fuzzygoldbull, halfmonty, sandiagogold,etc etc.
Posted by Maddog
@ 13:49 on February 26, 2020
and a miracle buyer stepped in, to bang it back up and tap AU down….it’s the World versus the scum.
Posted by newtogold
@ 13:45 on February 26, 2020
Estimated 60 Million cases and about 12,500 deaths in 2009 in US alone. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm
Nobody panicked then that much. Just saying….draw your own conclusions.
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 13:38 on February 26, 2020
Nope.
Always been Captain Hook.
Originally started posting on GE back in 2002 and then moved here even when I had my own blog.
Cheers
Posted by Mr.Copper
@ 13:20 on February 26, 2020
Posted by Mr.Copper
@ 13:19 on February 26, 2020
Posted by Maddog
@ 12:27 on February 26, 2020
The Kids and parents all traveled normally, there and back…..we have no restrictions on anyone, we ‘lost’ nearly 500 Chinese people a while ago. any one can come and go. ….and get this the Department of Health is saying to schools, u don’t have to close!!!!!!
No masks available, all sold out ages ago….U can’t get coffee filters either, as it looks like they are making masks, instead.
The one thing I do know, is that if it breaks out in the UK, it will be a massive cluster f**k, tks to how totally useless all our people are in authority…especially the government.
we now have 2 weeks plus food in….
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 12:08 on February 26, 2020
Ya we are getting a bounce now because the gamblers were getting too bearish and Trump is speaking tonight, but the decline is probably not over. The bureaucrats are thinking they are saving their economy (not ours) by lying to everybody, but unlike their other lies, this virus shit is outside of their ability to fix with simply controlling the narrative.
At some point they will need to come clean about the pandemic they are actually creating, at which point it should get really ugly. This could come soon as the quickening is accelerating into light speed now. This bounce in stocks could last longer than anybody thinks because the bureaucrats, with Trump in this grouping now cuz of his desire to get re-elected, will not want a really bad month end close.
We will have to see, because the momentum chasing hedge funds might not want to show excessive tech stock holdings at month end too.
An up Wednesday after a down Monday / Tuesday, is often part of a continuation pattern into week’s end, meaning we go back down again starting tomorrow. Lots of shorts will be covering here.
Buyer beware.
Cheers
Posted by goldielocks
@ 11:59 on February 26, 2020
Ps Might want to go grab up a bunch of masks and may safety glasses with seal rims now. The masks will sell out fast from all sources.
Posted by goldielocks
@ 11:57 on February 26, 2020
I’m glad they brought the kids home but wonder why they didn’t get quarantined? Did they get to transfer buses through the no go zones?
I guess there is some perks so socialism if you can go on school outing to the Alps but not worth the cost what it’s doing to your country.
Posted by Maddog
@ 10:17 on February 26, 2020
but as soon as SM upticks, PM’s pushed lower….
Posted by Maddog
@ 10:12 on February 26, 2020
Posted by Maddog
@ 10:06 on February 26, 2020
Lots of schools sent their kids skiing for half term into the Italian Alps and now kids are going down with Flu type symptoms…..Really bright idea that, as the virus had already broken out, yet no-one cancelled and no-one was quarantined when they came back.
Posted by Richard640
@ 9:59 on February 26, 2020
an upbeat report and may allow for a gung-ho open tomorrow…trannies up 70…
Call buyers on the March 6th VXX 19–19.50 and 20 buck strikes are going absolutely ape sh*t…so I expect stocks to finish with a big gain…only thing that bothers me are the trannies…they keep fading…now up only 13
Posted by Buygold
@ 9:52 on February 26, 2020
What I’d love to see in pm’s is a down open like we’ve had followed by a reversal higher.
That would fit the “world view”
Posted by Richard640
@ 9:31 on February 26, 2020
an up day today and an up open tomorrow would be a great opportunity to buy back in to some VXX calls…I think this mkt is going much lower and VXX could go to 30 or 40 bucks…I sold my $11 calls yesterday for $320 each…I was touting VXX calls for 6 weeks…too bad none of yas didn’t buy any…
Posted by Richard640
@ 9:25 on February 26, 2020
Posted by ipso facto
@ 9:20 on February 26, 2020
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