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Posted by Richard640 @ 23:54 on February 7, 2020  

Professor Says Coronavirus is Infecting 50,000 a Day, and He May be Right

Disease analyst estimates coronavirus is infecting 50,000 people/day in China. Evidence suggests his model is more reliable than government’s.

  • Infectious disease scientist Neil Ferguson estimates coronavirus could be infecting 50,000 people a day.
  • He may be correct, as the data coming out of China look suspicious.
  • A steady rate of 3,000 diagnoses per day points to the upper limit of detection kits that are available to the health workers.

In a video published Thursday, infectious disease scientist Professor Neil Ferguson said coronavirus could be infecting around 50,000 people a day in China. Worse, he estimates the cases will double every five days. Those numbers are baffling.



It is possible with all our pessimism, none of us have a clue just how bad it is. It could be so bad that they really don’t dare tell us because they think we would freak and harm ourselves and the world with the reaction. It could be so bad that every unreasonable measure at containment makes sense if we knew the scope and the nature of the disease. They may need to keep everyone away from everyone and decontaminate areas where sick people have been or else it WILL spread.

>China should come clean with what they did
They already did.  This article is published in the Journal of Virology (2017) from a researcher in Wuhan Institute, bragging about how by introducing some strategic HIV gene segments into the bat Corona virus he was able to make the virus attack humans via the ACE2 receptors. 
>Someone may want to archive this article before it’s pulled down.
t’s amazing how impatient modern society has become. 
Here we have a virus, however it came to be. In two months, TWO MONTHS, it has effectively destroyed China economically and put essentially their entire urban population under strict quarantine.
Isn’t that moving quick enough to suit you guys?
The thing that throws me is the supposed fact that it was first discovered early December. That seems like a long time as far as people infecting each other for over a month and a half before any lockdowns started. It just seems like it would be everywhere by now……..
Let me help you with the States.  
First, you need the seeds.  These act like “case 1” in their respective area.
Next, you need to wait for them to report.  This can be 1-3 weeks, apparently.  
Third, you need the set of people they infected to roam about for another 1-3 weeks.
Symptoms don’t lead to reporting in early stages.  Severe symptoms do.
This puts you about 4-6 weeks out, so far.  Another week, or two, after and you’ll start to see numbers start to take off.



Posted by Richard640 @ 19:27 on February 7, 2020  

The Commitment of Traders Report


*The large specs reduced their longs positions by 8,559 contracts and decreased their shorts by 12,945 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 1,142 contracts and increased their shorts by 3,327 contracts.

*The small specs reduced their longs by 772 contracts and increased their shorts by 1,429 contracts.

The commercials net short position was increased slightly to 90,815 contracts.


*The large specs decreased their long positions by 20,492 contracts and increased their shorts by 9,794 contracts.

*The commercials reduced their longs by 15,514 contracts and decreased their shorts by 44,641 contracts.

*The small specs reduced their longs by 117 contracts and reduced their shorts by 1,276 contacts.

The commercials net short position was reduced to 331,687 contracts.

A nice change in gold with the commercials, as per the comments today. Silver … Forget about it!



Posted by Buygold @ 18:34 on February 7, 2020  

Have a great weekend too!

Hopefully a better week ahead. 🙂

deer79, Captain, COT’s et. all

Posted by Buygold @ 18:19 on February 7, 2020  

deer79 – sorry about SVM, just looked at it. Don’t own that one which is a surprise, but it’s always something with these miners.

Captain – I wonder just how great MUX actually is. McEwen raised capital @ $1.32 a share. Doesn’t tell me he thinks it’s all that great. I continue to hold, but after a lot of years of underperformance I’m beginning to wonder why.

Here’s your COT’s – the banksters are headed for the hills on their shorts in gold this week, but as usual, they have the funds and their own long positions keeping the gold price from skyrocketing.


The shares were pathetic today.

and the beat goes on……

Posted by Maya @ 17:02 on February 7, 2020  


Meanwhile… back in Iowa…



Pelosi Accuses Trump Of Looking “Sedated” At State Of The Union

Posted by Maya @ 16:40 on February 7, 2020  


Well, the ‘Madam of the House’ seems more than a little demented to me, also.




The FED/CBs to save the day…[that is a principle belief of the investor community-it’s always worked…so far]

Posted by Richard640 @ 16:39 on February 7, 2020  



Mother Of All Stimulus is on its way!

Now one might argue they are artificially pumping financial asset prices and therefore, if you are willing to take a longer-term view, this is a great sale.  I get that argument.  

However, I think this monetary stimulus is just the start.  It will be followed by fiscal.  And then more monetary.  And even more fiscal.

Remember ECB Chairman Draghi’s “whatever it takes?”  That crisis was a self-inflicted financial crisis.  

This is an actual real-life emergency.  There will be no limits to what governments spend or Central Banks print.  Full stop.  There will be no worrying about the 1%’ers getting too much of the benefit.  Nope.  The virus does not discriminate based on wealth, and if anything, the less fortunate are probably more exposed due to the same lack of resources.

Every single government in the world will respond quickly and decisively if this situation gets worse.  They will monetize the crap out of everything.  Central Banks will be back to buying anything with a CUSIP.

Although I understand how a deterioration of the situation should be deflationary, that’s assuming the unit we use to measure everything stays the same.  It won’t.  

I was chatting with a hedge fund pal the other day and he told me, “this is the largest market mis-pricing in the history of financial markets.”  Wait… what?  

The “largest mis-pricing in the history of financial markets?” I nearly spit out my water.   Geez-louise.  That’s even more bearish than Mark.

I showcase Mark Spiegel’s recent twitter post because he is so bearish, and I know he is a good sport who won’t mind me calling him out.  He owns his forecast and is not afraid to say so in the most public fashion:


Captain–I am holding…I heard on Bloomberg that the real reason stocks sold off was a line

Posted by Richard640 @ 16:08 on February 7, 2020  

in a FED statement today that the FED  thinks that asset prices are styretched bacause of “low rates”…which traders took to mean don’t look for more rate cuts…but we all know the FED will do anthing it can to save the stocks mkt…the virus played an equal part too…then the most bearish feature of the day IMO is the uncomfortable fact that stocks had a fairly big down day in spite of the great jobs number….plus bonds are strongly bid…had stocks been down 600+ today then I’d be worried about Monday…one can never be sure but the action today-again–JMO–makes me thing Monday could come in down bigly…I sold 100 cals-still have 200…

Buygold @ 14:22

Posted by Captain Hook @ 15:54 on February 7, 2020  

As Trump would say….that’s bullshit…regarding MUX.

The better the company / management…the more they like to crap on it. The bankers like to ignore McEwen because it discredits the entire sector.

Must be demos selling.


US Dopey/Dollar Getting Up Near The 99 Peak Again

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:47 on February 7, 2020  

It will probably drop soon and we get a PMs tail wind.


@ipso facto, Yes Not Nationalization.

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:38 on February 7, 2020  

Not officially. Of course. The various gov’ts all cooperate with each other. But the populous, or the local people seem to be acting on their own. Like the story said it sounds like the miners are force to sell. Probably to the locals. Who won’t fight each other after they buy them.

deer79 @ 15:04

Posted by ipso facto @ 15:29 on February 7, 2020  

That’s sure an ugly decline!

Could have something to do with this:

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Jan. 29, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Silvercorp Metals Inc.’s (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) (TSX/NYSE American: SVM) operations in China are usually suspended two weeks for the Chinese New Year holiday. During the 2020 holiday season, the Company’s production was suspended on January 17 and was scheduled to re-start on February 1. Due to the coronavirus situation, China’s central government extended the Chinese New Year holiday by three days to February 3, 2020, and as instructed by the provincial governments, the Company now expects a re-start date of February 10, 2020. The Company expects to catch-up on the lost production time with shortened holidays in the future.


Why are the Democrats so Revengeful ?

Posted by Ororeef @ 15:21 on February 7, 2020  

Its because Trump is making progress with the Black VOTE ..and without it Democrats are losers….

Their response is to try to get Illegals to vote in their place….Just look at what just happened in IOWA the candidate with the most black votes …BIDEN is  failing !…and they want to get a recount  until it comes out right,they will keep recounting until the fix is in…  Thats what Democrats do…They did it to Nixon in Chicago and he lost to Kennedy…COOK county held back reporting of votes until they recounted until it came out “right”…Nothing to see here folks..move on ….Only a candidate with FULL Black  support has chance against Trump..Look at how he Trumped UP the black 4th grader and the 100 year old Tuskegee VET at the impeachment victory.  YES its a WAR for the Black VOTE and the Democrats want REVENGE   !’cause Trump is winning…!


Posted by deer79 @ 15:04 on February 7, 2020  

SVM is crushing me today. Missed their earnings by .02, but in the pm sector, that’s cause for a massacre.

Buygold @ 14:22

Posted by ipso facto @ 15:04 on February 7, 2020  

Gold mining companies should make some decent profits with the uptick in gold. Maybe that’s what’ll put the spurs to the shares. That’s what I’m hoping anyways. I think AUY looks interesting here too.

Have a great weekend!

Ipso – concur

Posted by Buygold @ 14:22 on February 7, 2020  

Picked up some AUY on this dip at $3.85. Been targeting KGC around the $4.90 range and holding SAND in here which is my only up stock of the bunch. Dumped AG for a loss and will look to re-enter but I’m not sure where.

MUX continues to crush the portfolio. Great day yesterday, giving it all back today.

At least gold is going inverse the SM as expected, unfortunately the shares seem to follow the SM today? They can never be counted on to follow the metals.

Pretty G-Damn disappointing.

edit: RGLD has been my favorite trading vehicle and fortunate I haven’t owned any in awhile because they missed earnings and have gotten trounced. Still love it but no clue where it bottoms. 🙁


Posted by ipso facto @ 14:12 on February 7, 2020  

It’s not nationalization. It’s not being able to operate your mine safely because of rebels and criminals threatening and killing your people.

Richard640 @ 13:36

Posted by Captain Hook @ 14:09 on February 7, 2020  

I would let it ride.


@ ipso facto re Your 10:07, Canada’s Banro Corporation Losing Mines To Africa

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 13:36 on February 7, 2020  

It sounds like nationalization. And understandable as populism is growing around the world after that global financial crisis in 2008. In my view that event was a peak and culmination, of globalization. A free for all for global business activity in other people’s countries.

The results of  Y2K, The March 2001 Dot Com Bust, then Nine Eleven attack during a recession in 2001, resulting in mass stimulation, causing the real estate crash in the summer of 2008, all those events combined has been gradually transitioning the OLD new world order, that started in 1913, into a NEW, new world order.

Captain-the mkts seem frozen in place–very calm with their meagre losses…I’d probably close out my trade now

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:36 on February 7, 2020  

and bank a little lunch money were it not for treasuries still so well bid…what’s that whistling I hear??

https://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/ZB.htmlI’d probably close out my trade

Image result for whistling past the graveyard

Buygold @ 12:13

Posted by ipso facto @ 13:11 on February 7, 2020  

Yeah it sure is irksome to have the metals OK and the shares beaten silly. Faith in our sector is seriously lacking.

Richard640 @ 12:03

Posted by Captain Hook @ 12:33 on February 7, 2020  

Who knows what the crazies think.

It’s a mania with more shorts to squeeze perhaps.

Will end badly at some point.


Well Ipso

Posted by Buygold @ 12:13 on February 7, 2020  

That was about as polite as I’m feeling about what I’m seeing in pm’s today. 🙂

Some, not all, of the action we’re seeing so far this year looks like what we’ve seen in the last decade.

I sure hope we’re not headed for another year of the same old crap.

Much preferred when we were going up when the SM was weak. OTOH, the USD is a little stronger and it is a jobs report day, so I guess this should be expected?


Thaqnks Captain!! I note amazon up 38 bucks-that’s why the Nasdaq is relatively strong-Could that be on the idea

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:03 on February 7, 2020  
that folks won’t wanna go out in public–causa the virus–to shop if they can avoid it-??
Add to watchlist

2,088.21+37.98 (+1.85%)


Posted by Captain Hook @ 10:41 on February 7, 2020  

You might have a good Monday if stocks finish lower today.

Because how can they print money / lower rates if so many jobs are being created.

Factor in the coronavirus spreading over the weekend and the fact the Fed’s balance sheet is contracting now and Monday could be ugly.

Everything is crossed.


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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.