OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Guess who’s puking Tesla stock this morning?

Posted by Maddog @ 8:27 on February 5, 2020  

Millennials who have been day-trading the stock to pay for student loans…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tsla-enters-correction-tumbles-12-highs-after-china-gigafactory-shutdown

Oh Dear such solid foundations !!!!!!

KEVIN MUIR OF THE MACRO TOURIST EXPLAINS TESLA

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:20 on February 5, 2020  

Before I tell you my theory, let me dispel the most common one.  Many people are claiming this is the biggest short squeeze in history.  Although short interest was at one point extremely high for this stock, over the past year, it has steadily declined.

You might run across all sorts of scary charts highlighting a massively growing notional amount of Tesla shares sold short.  Ignore that.  It means little with the stock exploding in value.  What matters is shares sold short.  And that number has been steadily declining.  When you combine the fact that there are a few convertible bond issues that are now deeply in the money (and therefore likely have fully hedged short positions against them), the amount of short sellers betting on this company falling has been dramatically decreasing.  No doubt there are still some left.  But they are not driving the run higher.  If they were, the borrow rates would be increasing, and instead they are falling.  Nope, the shorts are not the culprit.

Next most cited reason for the rise in Tesla’s stock price is short gamma from the market makers.  Now I buy this theory – to some extent.  Tesla has definitely become a retail (and institutional) trading darling.  On the whole, clients are buying options from market makers, creating a negative feedback loop both ways.  As the stock rises, the market makers find themselves short more stock, so they need to buy more.  As it falls, they need to short it again.  The massive negative gamma dealer position is definitely exacerbating stock price movement (and it will happen both ways – make no mistake about it).

The most hilarious part of this phenomenon?  As my pal, Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa recently noted, in the reddit forums investors have clued into this reality and are trying to orchestrate bull raids on other stocks (which is highly illegal, but then again the SEC didn’t seem to shut down Elon for all his infractions, so I guess manipulation on the upside isn’t manipulation but instead just good trading).

GLOOM=you’ve got the ingredients for an incipient global economic calamity.

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:13 on February 5, 2020  
Do Davos Billionaires And Bankers Really Believe That There Won’t Be Any More Booms And Busts?
Therefore, we cannot attribute this surprising softening to a “murderous Fed” (to paraphrase Dornbusch) or its cohorts in the global central banking fraternity. It is, however, possible to posit that we may be seeing a cresting of excessive global fixed investment, which eventually could cause a global recession. There is no question that our central banks and governments will try to do “whatever it takes” to postpone such a decline.
The point is that, relative to the post-war business cycle patterns in most people’s minds, the end of this global expansion does not need a “murderous Fed.” Excessive risk asset valuations and high indebtedness, even in a world of low prevailing interest rates and unprecedented central bank intervention, can nonetheless lead to negative financial and economic dynamics.And given excessive global capital spending in a world where the warranted rate of growth has now downshifted, an autonomous decline in excessive investment can do the same. Add to this the increasing risks brought about by the spread of the coronavirus, and you’ve got the ingredients for an incipient global economic calamity.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/do-davos-billionaires-and-bankers-really-believe-there-wont-be-any-more-booms-and

After a two day drubbing in pm’s

Posted by Buygold @ 8:04 on February 5, 2020  

and what looks like a third day massacre of shorts in the SM

Do pm’s have a chance to at least stabilize today?

Enquiring minds want to know.

Max Gloom=If you think that things are bad so far, just wait until you see what is coming over the course of the rest of the year.

Posted by Richard640 @ 7:52 on February 5, 2020  

360 Billion & Growing: Locust Plague Of “Biblical Proportions” Destroys Crops Across Middle East, Africa

We have never seen anything like this before, and this is yet another “unprecedented crisis” that we can add to all the others that we are currently facing.
Our planet is changing, global weather patterns are going absolutely nuts, and worldwide events are really starting to spiral out of control.
And at this point we are just a little over one month into 2020.  If you think that things are bad so far, just wait until you see what is coming over the course of the rest of the year.

IMO Trump knocked it out of the park with his State of the Union message.

Posted by silverngold @ 23:27 on February 4, 2020  

I’d say he gained many more supporters as he recognized and honored many every day Americans for their dedication and sacrifice. Best content I’ve heard that I can recall. Then to watch Nancy Pelosi rip up Trump’s speech at the end sure made her look like a selfish, vindictive and hateful old witch that should step down and accept her defeat sure didn’t gain her any supporters. They say beauty is only skin deep but ugly goes all the way through. IMO Nancy gets the ugly award for the night, unable to even keep a neutral attitude during the speech but looked to be sucking on a very sour lemon. IMO you’re done Nancy!

Coming ETF Disaster

Posted by Richard640 @ 22:14 on February 4, 2020  

Michael Pento: Trillion-Dollar Stocks And The Coming ETF Disaster

The latest from Michael Pento:

There are a handful of stocks in which institutions and individual investors have recently piled into. This behavior is emblematic of all bull markets once they begin to hit the manic phase. Wall Street falls in love with a few high-growth darlings and takes their valuations up to the thermosphere.

If you add up the market capitalizations of just four stocks, Google (Alphabet), Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, their combined worth exceeds $5 trillion. If you throw in Facebook, you get the top 5 biggest firms by market capitalization, and they compose an amazing 18% of the S&P 500. Another way of looking at this is that the market cap of a full 282 companies in the S&P 500 now equals the same as the top 5 behemoths.

Again, this is not dissimilar to what has occurred in past blow-off tops. Recall the NASDAQ internet craze in the late ’90s and the Nifty Fifty bubble mania of the late ’60s and early ’70s. In the 694 days between January 11th, 1973, and December 6th, 1974, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 45% of its value, but many stocks in the Nifty Fifty fared much worse. The Dot.com disaster was even more dramatic. It caused 5 trillion dollars of equity to vanish and wiped-out nearly 80% of market value.

Michael Pento: Trillion-Dollar Stocks And The Coming ETF Disaster

Screwball Nenner=$60,000 gold

Posted by Richard640 @ 21:58 on February 4, 2020  

Gold Will Go To Around $60,000 Per Ounce If The “System Breaks Down” – Nenner

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02-04/gold-will-go-around-60000-ounce-if-system-breaks-down-nenner

Posted by Maya @ 20:54 on February 4, 2020  

mrz013119-color-copy-1-3mb_orig

 

THE TWO MOST LIKELY EXPLANATIONS FOR THE IOWA CAUCUS KERFUFFLE

Posted by treefrog @ 20:51 on February 4, 2020  

1) the democrats screwed up their first attempt of the year to rig an election.
or,
2) it was interference by space aliens from uranus.

it’s like the first day of first grade
and the democrats show up in their diapers.

6 month gold gives a little perspective. Doing just fine,

Posted by ipso facto @ 19:10 on February 4, 2020  

6 mos gold

and then oops …

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:31 on February 4, 2020  

Tesla Stock Suddenly Plunges As Much As $100 In Seconds

Having traded as high as $969, a move of almost $200 higher on the day, Tesla stock suddenly collapsed at 350pm, dropping as much as $100 from $960 to $860 in second in what can only be described as the mother of all red candles…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-stock-suddenly-plunges-much-100-seconds

If everything is so great,

Posted by Buygold @ 15:49 on February 4, 2020  

why is the ten yr. yield still at 1.60%?

and the 30 yr. just above 2% at 2.08%?

We still aren’t seeing much in the way of hyperinflation except in healthcare, thanks to Obozo.

Speaking of Obozo, just can’t wait for the results from Iowa. if Sanders doesn’t win, there’ll be riots in the streets.

So we can assume no more bearish bets on stocks should be made based

Posted by Richard640 @ 15:47 on February 4, 2020  

on the virus?

TSLA surging as I write-$965 up $184 on 4X volume

TSLA up $180 to $960

Posted by Buygold @ 15:41 on February 4, 2020  

You’ve got to be kidding me.

Elon Musk needs to go back on the Joe Rogan show and fire one up for me.

Good for him and all his detractors. Bezos too.

What Happened To DRGDF? Detour Gold, No last trade, no Volume no Nothing

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:36 on February 4, 2020  

Never mind I found out. Kirkland bought out Detour gold.

https://www.detourgold.com/home/default.aspx

I guess Tesla doesn’t do any biz or buy anything from China

Posted by Maddog @ 14:56 on February 4, 2020  

Hyundai, Kia Factories Crippled In South Korea As Part Suppliers In China Remain Closed

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hyundai-kia-factories-crippled-south-korea-part-suppliers-china-remain-close

A little green

Posted by Buygold @ 14:26 on February 4, 2020  

Fortuna – FSM is green a little. WPM looks like it wants to move into positive territory.

Who knows? Maybe even SLV. Would be nice to have a decent close.

Maybe Runaway Inflation In The Stock Market, Is Better Than Hyperflation In Food Fuel and Energy, eh?

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 14:02 on February 4, 2020  

Boy wouldn’t that be a strange twist? Naturally the share holders would have to hold, NOT sell and then piss the excess money supply into the consumer economy. That might cause hyperflation in real estate, Gold Silver new cars, consumer electronics etc.

But most of the share holders already have what they need, so may just keep plowing unneeded un spent fake money into Gov’t Bonds, driving down interest rates even lower.

Lets face it. This whole fake artificial man made financial system has distorted reality. It has needed repair and adjustment so many times, its like a bondo bucket taxi cab in NYC. 🙂

Mr. Copper

Posted by Buygold @ 13:58 on February 4, 2020  

That is really interesting about gamblers. Never knew that.

Would sure like to see some sign of life in the pm’s or the shares in the last couple of hours today.

The SM action is ridiculous. Must be confounding all the players after last Friday. Makes me think the downside in the SM had more to do with the impeachment than the virus.

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS:

Posted by treefrog @ 13:57 on February 4, 2020  

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS:
republicans – a landslide for trump, as expected.
democrats – well, we don’t know. they haven’t decided yet.

common core math?
haven’t heard from the graveyards yet?
no agreement over whether dogs and cats can vote?
party bigwigs can’t agree on how they want it to be?
other?

WTF?

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:50 on February 4, 2020  

I’m in Awe of How Tesla is Now a Supernatural Phenomenon

The WTF stock chart of the year. And another WTF chart of just how tiny Tesla is compared to the top 10 automakers.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Tesla’s shares spiked another 20% this morning, or by $160, to $940 a share. Every time I write a few words, I have to go back and change the number again, because the price just keeps shooting higher. So far this year, TSLA has shot up 120%.

It could very well be that by this evening, shares are down by $300 or whatever, or that they’re at $1,100. They’re floating up high in the outer space or irrationality, and can go anywhere. So this the WTF chart of the new year with Tesla’s share price frozen at 9:51 AM Eastern Time (stock price data via YCHARTS):

A tiny automaker among giants.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/04/im-in-awe-of-how-tesla-is-now-a-supernatural-phenomenon/

A Lot Of Green Screens… Not A Lot Of High-Fiving!”–Authored by Richard Breslow via Bloomberg,

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:45 on February 4, 2020  
Equities are having quite a nice rally today. And it’s a global phenomenon. My guess is the majority of traders took one look at their screens this morning and did a double take. And then began scouring the news to learn the reason.
********************************************************
Aside from all of the reasons which may or may not have been the cause of the global equity move, it’s tempting to give some credence to the theory that the mess in Iowa last night was a contributing factor. Traders have their own unique priorities and worldview.

@Buygold re your 9:35 “Too bad we don’t see them getting blown up in the futures market for gold and silver.

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 13:25 on February 4, 2020  

Maybe the gamblers playing in the Gold futures market, on big margin, went long on gold too late, and at too high prices, and are just naturally panicking out, in a hurry selling paper, exaggerating the down move.

Re the regular stocks? Maybe the same thing, over confident gambler, shorters came in too late and too high and are ALSO panicking out or cashing out, (buying to cover) in a big hurry. Lock in profit or cutting loss most likely imo.

They say gamblers have a subconscious desire to lose. (buy high and sell lower) That’s why when they WIN? They keep right on playing until they “succeed” and lose money. I read the desire to lose starts at about three years old.

R640

Posted by Buygold @ 12:51 on February 4, 2020  

The Demonrats really look like the party of nutbags. When your true frontrunner is a socialist who has never worked a real job in his life and lived in a van before becoming the mayor of a small town, you’ve got to know you’re in serious trouble.

Even when Trump goes off the rails on twitter like he does on occasion, he looks like a saint.

I also saw that article about the pm shares and seasonals. Great timing. ZH always has the best timing when it comes to pm’s. LOL.

« Newer PostsOlder Posts »
Go to Top

Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.