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My long standing weekly roadmap is following my cup perfectly. Stretched the handle a bit as next 8 YCL will have pull by then. Added alternative route plus halfway pattern comment. Next 8 YCL is due 2023-24 but will probably come 2022-23. After that we will take off. pic.twitter.com/krJPOsaB0S— Graddhy – Commodities TA+Cycles (@graddhybpc) January 12, 2020
Graddhy
Ipso – Are they in Congress? :)
Looks like we got a bit of a battle today, the bums are coming after our $1550 and $18 that we’ve been fighting hard to maintain for the last week of so.
Hopefully the SM rolls over and we can fight back.
Buygold @ 7:29
I think I’ve know a few! đ
Buygold
Iâm glad your petty officer kept you out of trouble and your instincts and training kept you alive although for so many that didnât even help with the traps everywhere.
When a woman I know went there when
they were initially burning the oil fields the first thing she could see and smell they had a fit too. But in her case it was because she was a female and her head wasnât covered lol She told me women came to them with their dead babies thinking they could make them alive again after the terrorist Iâll call them killed them in a nursery. Her brother a ranger was also over there and they wouldnât let them go. Thatâs a long story. Luckily he came back too and doing things for the military like building houses etc.
Whether that person who shot down that plane that should of been canceled was a kid or not it seemed he would have to have permission by someone and still the fact that that missile was intended to kill Americans and Iraqis. Was he scared or were they hot heads?
Rick Ackerman
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Buygold
No it just happened to be the chart I was looking at then. Â I do have a small position with a cost of 1.12. We had a very good year last year primarily because of the silver stocks which doubled.
I do like the mux chart but as with all our positions I will be very skittish. Â I am happy to leave gains to others but not happy to jeopardize last years gains.
aurum
Captain, R640
Captain – I do remember you saying it was a bargain down there – quite prophetic. If I didn’t already own so much I probably would have picked some up. Now I’m curious as to where it’s headed. Their last finance deal was done @ $1.32 a share which I would expect to be some resistance until the metal prices go a lot higher or they come out with some fantastic news. That being said, it’s hard to imagine their lenders being stupid. Hell, for all we know, McEwen could have been one of the financiers.
R640 – I think we had a 10-20% correction at the end of 2018? No doubt it can happen, timing it is tough though. Who knows, maybe the Middle East or a European Bank will flare up and help you out. At least your bets are relatively cheap. Low risk, big reward?
As for tonight, yeah I could see the DOW up a couple hundred and gold down $20. Nothing bad happened this weekend, at least that we know about, unless there’s some surprise Repo action.
Mind the Gap
Amid all the ferocious market rallying thereâs a gap building and nobody seems to notice, and nobody seems to care. I say: Mind the gap.
The banking index, much like the rest of the market, has been rallying furiously ever since the Fed began expanding its balance sheet on an accelerated pace since October. $BKX jumped on the liquidity train and broke above its previously well contained 2018-2019 range, except it didnât make new all time highs yet.
So I have some questions: Why is the banking sector not running wild with all this artificial liquidity? Why are yields not confirming the economic growth the larger market price action wants you to believe is just around the corner? If the banking index and small caps canât make new highs with a $400B+ balance sheet expansion by the Fed whatâs that say about the underlying true strength of the economy? What does the banking sector know that the main indices donât know? Whyâs nobody talking about it?
Â
Buygold–Good to know I have company-no, it’s not Goldmans or JPMs chief strategist…but I’ll take it
“This Is Nuts” – Why One Asset Manager Reduced Risk On Friday
Buygold–I would be very satisfied with a mere 10%-20% correction–I’m not expecting a 2008 collapse–when a market
as tightly wound as our stock market starts a serious correction–much of the downside-30%-40% of it-can occur in the first 3 to 5 days–the fear generated would cause a huge spike in volatility–which I’m hoping to catch–so I don’t mind taking stabs–what else can I do to make serious coin? Buy a 1000 shares of Amazon or Tesla-?
I think gold would have a huge spike too–I have said for years that gold will not repeat its 2008 performance even in a repeat of same.
Buygold @ 9:41
You might remember that was my call at the time (at the lows) on minor execution issues.
MUX could keep cruising here no matter what now as those issues are rectified and the good drilling results keep rolling in.
Not to mention the present market cap is only valuing one of its five world class projects.
Let the good times roll.
Cheers
Good morning aurum
Long time no see.
What’s your chart telling you about MUX? It had a good day yesterday, albeit on lighter than average volume, but looks like that $1.05 level was the bottom for awhile.
R640 – Good Research
You really seem convinced that a SM correction is on the way, both by the articles you post and the VIX bets you’ve been making of late.
Why is this time different than anything we’ve seen over the last decade? The nature of your bets are pretty short term and I guess you’re looking for a pretty violent move down. What does gold do in your scenario?
TIA
The only question is how much longer can Jerome Powell continue âpushing on a string.â
The Fedâs position is they must continue inflating a valuation bubble despite the inherent, and understood, risks of doing so. However, with no alternative to âemergency measures,â the Fed is trapped in their own process. The longer they continue their monetary interventions, the more impossible it becomes for the Fed to extricate itself without causing the crash they want to avoid.
Stated simply, the longer the Fed avoids normalizing monetary policy, and weaning the âcrack addictedâ markets off of their âliquidity drug,â the bigger the âreversionâ will be âwhen,â not âif,â it occurs.
The only question is how much longer can Jerome Powell continue âpushing on a string.â
Think âLehman crisisâ multiplied by a factor of four.
You really have to ask what is going on here. Wall Street veteran Caitlin Long provided a clue.
U.S. Treasuries are the most rehypothecated asset in financial markets, and the big banks know this. [They] are the core asset used by every financial institution to satisfy its capital and liquidity requirements, which means that no one really knows how big the hole is at a system-wide level.This is the real reason why the repo market periodically seizes up. Itâs akin to musical chairs â no one knows how many players will be without a chair until the music stops.
As ZeroHedge noted, this isnât just a bank issue.
Hedge funds are the most heavily leveraged multi-strategy funds in the world, taking something like $20 billion to $30 billion in net assets under management and levering it up to $200 billion. As noted by The Financial Times:
âSome hedge funds take the Treasury security they have just bought and use it to secure cash loans in the repo market. They then use this fresh cash to increase the size of the trade, repeating the process over and over and ratcheting up the potential returns.â
SoâŚ.itâs a hedge fund problem, right?
Probably.
âThe repo-funded [arbitrage] was (ab)used by most multi-strat funds, and the Federal Reserve was suddenly facing multiple LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) blow-ups which could have started an avalanche. Such would have resulted in trillions of assets being forcefully liquidated as a tsunami of margin calls hit the hedge funds world.â
Think âLehman crisisâ multiplied by a factor of four.
Bernie for Prez in 2020-!!! Soak the rich!!
âThe financialized economy â including stocks, corporate bonds and real estate â is now booming. Meanwhile, the bulk of the population struggles to meet daily expenses. The worldâs 500 richest people got $12 trillion richer in 2019, while 45% of Americans have no savings, and nearly 70% could not come up with $1,000 in an emergency without borrowing.This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.â
I highlight the last sentence because it is the most important. Consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of GDP, therefore increased consumer confidence is critical to keeping consumers in action. The problem is the economy is no longer a âproductiveâ economy, but rather a âfinancialâ one. A point made by Ellen Brown recently:
âThe financialized economy â including stocks, corporate bonds and real estate â is now booming. Meanwhile, the bulk of the population struggles to meet daily expenses. The worldâs 500 richest people got $12 trillion richer in 2019, while 45% of Americans have no savings, and nearly 70% could not come up with $1,000 in an emergency without borrowing.
Weâre merely citing this as an example of how quickly financial markets can go from full functioning to complete breakdown.
Financial Markets Don’t Have The Faintest Inkling Of Potential Geopolitical Risk
âEvery generation suffers its particular fantasies. So it was a century ago. Investors had grown so immune to the consequences of war that bond markets from London to Vienna didnât flinch after the assassination that provoked World War I.âThree weeks later, in the summer of 1914, the fear premium amounted to a total of one basis point. Then, in quick order, European markets ceased to function. A notable feature of this paralysis is that nothing of substance had changed â war had not been declared by any of the parties, but by now, minds were hyperventilating.â
Perhaps the motivation for the cerebral excitement was the rapid realization during the July 1914 Crisis that complex political alliances had turned the European continent into a giant Mexican standoff. The risk of a stock or bond market selloff was quickly overshadowed by the prospect of something much greater.  That the diabolical self-annihilation of European society itself was, in fact, just moments away.
Geopolitical Shocks and Financial Markets
It would be wrong to draw close parallels between the geopolitical landscape in Europe circa 1914 and the Middle East circa 2020. This is not our intent. Weâre merely citing this as an example of how quickly financial markets can go from full functioning to complete breakdown.
VXX doesn’t need a 2000 or 2008-it is $14-in the Dec. 2018 sell off it was $46-[no splits since 2017]-even half of that would be a good trade
Finally, several indicators point to stretched positioning across other metrics. For example, equity futures long positioning for asset managers and leveraged funds combined is at record highs, driven by a broad-based rise in longs across the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as well as the small-cap Russell 2000 futures.Â
Longs in EM futures have risen to record highs.
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And short interest in single stocks is near record lows; and that in ETFs has also fallen to a new low.
One last confirmation of what appears to be a bullish capitulation into the QE4-inspired melt up is that equity fund flows have also turned up strongly over the last 3 months. Almost $50bn came in over this period, compared with over -$300bn in outflows in the prior 10 months.Â
Oh, one more thing we almost forget: with institutions, retail investors and algos all in stocks, the biggest source of equity demand, corporations themselves, appear to be easing off the stock buyback pedal. Indeed, awhile there has been a flurry of recent buyback announcements…
… with tech names leading by the runner up, healthcare, by nearly 3 to 1 in buyback announcements…
… in the grand scheme of things, and on a rolling 3 month basis, stock buybacks are a far cry from where there were just two years ago, and fading fast to levels not seen since before the Trump tax reform which unleashed a $1.5 trillion buyback bonanza.
It is this sudden reversal in buyback appetite that may be the biggest danger for a market where 77% of CFOs now think the market is significantly overvalued.
call/put volume ratios are at the top of their historical range;
Mux
Just looking at charts
Thank God for my Petty Officer 1st Class (SGT) who Iâm still in contact with 40 years later. I would killed that soldier who was just another kid, likely being told what to do by someone higher up in an effort to impress US Spec Forces. Unfortunately in Iran, whoever fired that missile, may lose his head over it, but he was likely just a kid thinking he was protecting his country against âThe Great Satanâ and scared out of his wits.
Canât think what to say about that except it is so true. Â Too bad we canât make everyone understand.