OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Rick Ackerman

Posted by Richard640 @ 23:41 on January 12, 2020  
The Week Ahead
Published Sunday, January12, at 9:58 p.m. EST

Are You All-In and

AAPL’s vertical climb since October has grown treacherous, as the chart makes clear. Last week we told subscribers to be alert to the possibility of an important top at 314.28, but now we see another potentially daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 319.92. These targets, which lie just inches above Friday’s close, are purely technical, but we’ll lay odds that a chartist will come closer to calling the top than some analyst who is paid to invent reasons for shares to move higher more or less forever. As regards AAPL, Rick’s Picks tracks it obsessively because it tops every portfolio strategist’s list of must-owns. Small wonder, then, that institutional investors have continued to pile into just a handful of high-fliers, shunning value stocks as though they were chopped liver.  Apple, Microsoft and Facebook shares, to name three sure things, returned 108%, 60% and 53% respectively over the last twelve months. Why would an investor with a pile of Other People’s Money to deploy bother to look elsewhere?

True Believers


But since we know that the parabolic rallies in these stocks and a few others cannot continue indefinitely, we might ask: What will cause them to fall? Not ‘fundamentals’, for sure.  Indeed, if AAPL’s price were to be halved over the next six months, it would be because perceptions have changed, not the underlying facts. The new set of facts will come later, when the same geniuses who have been scarfing up FAANG stocks hand-over-fist for the last year see the glass as half empty. It is predictable that this change of heart will come only after the bear market has ravaged investors. But it won’t happen until stocks are halfway to the next bear-market bottom — too late to save the hoards of true believers.

More immediately, if the AAPL rally targets flagged above fail to stop the stampede, keep in mind that shares of RCA, known to the shoeshine boy and his customers during the Roaring Twenties as ‘Radio’, rose tenfold in the five years preceding the 1929 crash. To duplicate this feat, as well as RCA’s subsequent 97% plunge, AAPL would need to hit $1,000 and then fall to $30 in just a few years. That seems unlikely, even if consumers hold onto their iPhones for much longer in the next recession and Apple is unable to make the kind of money in the entertainment business that it has made so easily selling overpriced hardware. Why worry about such things now? Well, there is that chart. But if it speaks to you and says that AAPL’s best days lie ahead, then you are probably all-in already. What could it hurt, though, to take some money off the table?

Sad but True!! Is Social Media The New Tobacco? Wherever you go you see the same! Zombie Addicts!

Posted by silverngold @ 17:36 on January 12, 2020  

BOOM! Incredible Woman Delivers Warning to Virginia’s Anti-Gun Government. Actual speech begins at 1:15. She sure hits the nail squarely on the head! You’ll Love It!!

Posted by silverngold @ 17:11 on January 12, 2020  

https://youtu.be/DKD4Vzigv8c

Buygold

Posted by aurum @ 16:56 on January 12, 2020  

No it just happened to be the chart I was looking at then.  I do have a small position with a cost of 1.12. We had a very good year last year primarily because of the silver stocks which doubled.

I do like the mux chart but as with all our positions I will be very skittish.  I am happy to leave gains to others but not happy to jeopardize last years gains.

aurum

 

Captain, R640

Posted by Buygold @ 15:47 on January 12, 2020  

Captain – I do remember you saying it was a bargain down there – quite prophetic. If I didn’t already own so much I probably would have picked some up. Now I’m curious as to where it’s headed. Their last finance deal was done @ $1.32 a share which I would expect to be some resistance until the metal prices go a lot higher or they come out with some fantastic news. That being said, it’s hard to imagine their lenders being stupid. Hell, for all we know, McEwen could have been one of the financiers.

R640 – I think we had a 10-20% correction at the end of 2018? No doubt it can happen, timing it is tough though. Who knows, maybe the Middle East or a European Bank will flare up and help you out. At least your bets are relatively cheap. Low risk, big reward?

As for tonight, yeah I could see the DOW up a couple hundred and gold down $20. Nothing bad happened this weekend, at least that we know about, unless there’s some surprise Repo action.

 

Watch the DOW open up a few hundred tonight….LOL

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:40 on January 12, 2020  

Mind the Gap

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:39 on January 12, 2020  
Amid all the ferocious market rallying there’s a gap building and nobody seems to notice, and nobody seems to care. I say: Mind the gap.
The banking index, much like the rest of the market, has been rallying furiously ever since the Fed began expanding its balance sheet on an accelerated pace since October. $BKX jumped on the liquidity train and broke above its previously well contained 2018-2019 range, except it didn’t make new all time highs yet.
So I have some questions: Why is the banking sector not running wild with all this artificial liquidity? Why are yields not confirming the economic growth the larger market price action wants you to believe is just around the corner? If the banking index and small caps can’t make new highs with a $400B+ balance sheet expansion by the Fed what’s that say about the underlying true strength of the economy? What does the banking sector know that the main indices don’t know? Why’s nobody talking about it?
 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mind-reality-gap

Buygold–Good to know I have company-no, it’s not Goldmans or JPMs chief strategist…but I’ll take it

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:10 on January 12, 2020  

“This Is Nuts” – Why One Asset Manager Reduced Risk On Friday

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 10:50

Buygold–I would be very satisfied with a mere 10%-20% correction–I’m not expecting a 2008 collapse–when a market

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:48 on January 12, 2020  

as tightly wound as our stock market starts a serious correction–much of the downside-30%-40% of it-can occur in the first 3 to 5 days–the fear generated would cause a huge spike in volatility–which I’m hoping to catch–so I don’t mind taking stabs–what else can I do to make serious coin? Buy a 1000 shares of Amazon or Tesla-?

I think gold would have a huge spike too–I have said for years that gold will not repeat its 2008 performance even in a repeat of same.

Buygold @ 9:41

Posted by Captain Hook @ 11:16 on January 12, 2020  

You might remember that was my call at the time (at the lows) on minor execution issues.

MUX could keep cruising here no matter what now as those issues are rectified and the good drilling results keep rolling in.

Not to mention the present market cap is only valuing one of its five world class projects.

Let the good times roll.

Cheers

Good morning aurum

Posted by Buygold @ 9:41 on January 12, 2020  

Long time no see.

What’s your chart telling you about MUX? It had a good day yesterday, albeit on lighter than average volume, but looks like that $1.05 level was the bottom for awhile.

R640 – Good Research

Posted by Buygold @ 9:36 on January 12, 2020  

You really seem convinced that a SM correction is on the way, both by the articles you post and the VIX bets you’ve been making of late.

Why is this time different than anything we’ve seen over the last decade? The nature of your bets are pretty short term and I guess you’re looking for a pretty violent move down. What does gold do in your scenario?

TIA

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.