What it all comes down to is buying “that which is hated” and selling “that which is loved” and since the first time Bernard Baruch traded one share of stock, that was the mantra he followed. Could it be that we would all adhere to his lead…
These are not easy times in which to invest because there are so many variable inputs bearing down on outcomes. I speak to dozens of highly-sophisitcated investors every day and I can tell you that they have never felt richer because of their 401K’s and RRSP’s all at record highs while in Canada real estate prices in the major centres of Toronto and Vancouver are in “bubble territory” further enhancing the private wealth effect. And yet, despite all of this financial rapture, to a man and woman, they tell me that they have never been more nervous, agitated, and uncertain as to how to invest their money and again, in Canada, how to protect themselves from a real estate collapse. These are not the kinds of conditions that mark the early stages of a sustained price rise in ANYTHING let alone housing and stocks. Nobody is talking about shortages in silver and everbody is now an expert on the supply of zinc. Nobody is looking for a gold explorer and everyone is long infrastructure stocks. In other words, silver at 33% of the seven-year highs is preferable to zinc at 100% of the seven-year highs and both silver and zinc are preferable to the S&P500 with a Case-Shiller P/E at the third-highest reading in history.
MJB