Loading ...From universal cycle theory For end of year.
From a cyclical perspective, the Dynamic UWS Model (top of page 10) peaks next week, and generally moves lower until October 2024. The important 2.12-year component of the UWS Model peaked last week. For the current cycle, the eclipse component of the model has been difficult to interpret. Firstly, the S&P 500 (and NASDAQ) peaked early in the Eclipse Cycle (black curve, bottom of page 10). Secondly, if a crash is imminent, then the crash will develop late in the eclipse cycle. For comparative purposes, the best analogy might be the 1997 Hang Seng crash in Hong Kong. In that instance, the panic phase of the crash started 2 weeks after the lunar eclipse. If the Hong Kong pattern is replicated, then expect the final top between November 6 and 13, to be followed by the panic phase of the crash. Under this scenario, the crash should conclude before December 11. Regardless of the exact scenario, a massive collapse in global equity prices seems imminent.