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The previous gold bull market had a chronically high (there’s a marijuana pun here, isn’t there…) commercial short position, but remember that those numbers are an aggregation of positions and tell nothing about who is holding them. Traders are always rotating in and out of positions, so some who were short last week may be out or long this week and vice-versa. In a bull market where investor demand for bullion is rising, dealers would have to increase their paper short positions to offset any inventory they are building up to meet customer demand. Producers bringing more ore into production or stockpiling more production would also be increasing their short positions to hedge that. The floor and ceiling for commercial shorts as a gauge to predict short-term direction will be higher if PMs go into a solid uptrend.