OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Unresearched call buyers in precious metal ETF’s are never ‘smart money’. They are either flukes, insiders, or idiots (most are idiots), which is why 95% of options expire worthless. And the current set-up in the markets is classic set-up for a status quo result as the quadruple options expiry approaches yet again. (the influence of options on the trade gets stronger as expiry approaches) Thing is, not many follow the ETF gamblers betting distributions — they just gamble. So there better not be any good news over the next three weeks or the broads will be squeezed higher with a vengeance (because the put / call ratios are high again) and precious metals attacked once again.

How anybody can place leveraged and deteriorating bets under such conditions in the big casino (where the house always wins) is beyond me.

But I’m not addicted and I’m not playing with other people’s money in a hedge fund. Thing is, the funds make small bullish bets in precious metals derivatives every month labeled insurance — this is why these idiots keep coming back month after month and year after year no matter how many times their positions expire worthless. Despite the fact they are tiny bets for these funds, they are big enough to drive the consensus, and they always bet long — and they always lose. They win in the big picture because the other 99% of their portfolio will be fine as long as PM’s remain under control — and they can charge their outrageous fees.

This is why the sector remains in the crapper. And why PM speculators betting large percentages of their portfolios in this crap are broke — and could be getting broker if Trump backs off — which will be labeled good news faster than you can say — not again!

And there’s a good chance the lunacy does not end until they stop placing these bets in the ETF’s.

Cheers

Sometimes SLV lags while SIL has a big gain…and visa-versa…Silver is one of the last bargains on the entire investment menu–it will eventually follow gold…I dunno–nor does Ted Butler [I axed hin, once]-why SLV always has so much option buying–which doesn’t thrill me cause I don’t like to be part of a posse–that said, SLV would participate in a rally…I noticed that the SLV call buying on Friday was extraordinarily high on Friday…btw, JNUG had unusually high call buying in the 2 or 3 days leading up to Friday-

The June 21st SLV $14 call had 4694 vol and an astounding 93,903 open interest

the July 19th $14 call had 4619 vol. and  38,393 o.i.

the Dec 31 15 [FIFTEEN] buck CALL had 3534 vol. and 8938 o.i.

I ain’t sayin this is or ain’t predictive of anything but it did catch my interest. Large call buys are not always smart money…but sometimes they IZ–The huge volume in such  a near expiration strike like the June 21st makes me think that buyer could be smart money…just sayin…DYOD

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has setup an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22.  We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer term Fibonacci price modeling.

The October/December 2018 lows were, most likely, the lowest price levels we will see going forward.  Additionally, the current price levels, below $15 per ounce, may be the last time we’ll have the opportunity to see prices this low in a number of years.  Our price modeling is suggesting that Silver and Gold will begin a Momentum Base Rally from these lows that may last many years.

https://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-sets-long-term-wave-b-bottom

not with exports of grains going down !  SUPPLY will be increasing  People are not STUPID !

Trump better get on this  FAST …He talked about giving it away to foreigners ..He better get control of domestic prices away from WALL STreet… Banksters !

Is he gonna dump grains in the OCEAN like they did during the DEpression ? because prices were too low ?

Unless he wants to be like HOOVER ,who got blamed !

Coffee,Corn,Wheat   up almost 20 % at first glance

Really hope you can do another double on it – especially before the reverse split. If it were to do a parabolic rise before the split, that would be a stunning turn of events. We’ll see.

Can’t help but to think that some of yesterdays commodity moves were Trump/Mexico tariff related, i.e. coffee. I don’t follow commodities enough to know whether it was something that took place across the board or not.

Nevertheless, despite the persistent underperformance in silver, yesterday was a really good bounce – especially in the shares. COT’s if to be believed seems to indicate a big upside move should be coming in silver. As bad as it has performed, it’s certainly way overdue.

Gold performed well, not really sure even why, but who cares? 🙂

https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxlf.htm

The NS horse trots into Harrisburg.
https://railpictures.net/photo/695580/

Thanks for the ‘Heads Up’ on D.C.

Fortunately, I’m about as far away as I can get.