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A monthly close above $1400. would be extremely bullish.

rno

in if gold keeps going up…what matters now is not what the denizens and posters on goldbug sites think…the big boys are moving in…they will run the show now–bugs can get as giddy. as they want–no need to worry about too much bullishness among them

When I saw close to 3% on 10 year rates, and the “news” or consensus, or widely held opinion, said rates were going higher. I said to myself, bull shit they are too high and going lower. They got up to 3.2% first. I think we all here agreed on lower rates and it happened. (after 3.2% on Nov ’18)

So now here we are with 2.02%, a 37% decline, and all the “news” or consensus, or widely held opinions are suggesting lower, after we already GOT lower but can get a little lower. (By the time the people acknowledge a trend its often over)

Now here’s what I think MIGHT happen going forward. If Gold keeps going up like it has been, the Fed might hold off lowering next meeting to avoid “helping” gold. In fact if Gold gets high enough fast enough, they might even raise rates sparingly. (fear to kill the markets) But not enough to slow gold down. In other words, behind the curve along the way.

We’ve all seen the bozos do it all thru the 1970s. Gold and rates were up together for 10 years (’71-’81)because they were too “chicken” to boldly raise them. Eventually the creep up to 18% CDs and 21% prime finally kicked Golds ass. The assholes hurt auto and home sales for 10 years. And recession in around 1980. After June ’82 (dow at 796) they started dropping rates.

If they keep dropping rates and ignore gold trending higher? That would be a very serious and strange situation.

Well well that person you posted looking for 1700 is not so far fetched looking at the chart today. That is if 1350 can now hold as support. Still I’d be real careful.

“as compared with a straight parabolic move higher followed by high-level and shallow consolidations, which I would normally prefer.”

Other than that, I didn’t really understand much of what he had to say about waves and how to decipher them.

We’re steadily rising again tonight, I do think at some point silver will have to play catch up and should outperform

like RSI ,SOCHastics..etc  …The MATH indicates  “overbought ” but that has to be taken in the CONTEXT of the RANGE of the indicater .If the range is divided  in percentage  like 0 to 100 or 20-80 ,it may stay at the high end of the range for months  and look like its overbought sometimes for 3 months or more…,it simply goes sideways  at the HIGH end of the RAnge … Especially when its been knocked down for a long time  ,it can jump from the low end  to the high end in a week or so and yet it may only be the beginning of a major move….YOU may quickly find yourself sold out very quickly if you dont put it in context and be sold out as it keeps going..

VIA #1 – The trans-continental ‘Canadian’.
stretches out thru BC.
https://railpictures.net/photo/693425/

As far as how I have been viewing the market in general, despite all the postings of the COT report being bearish and the technical indicators being overbought, this is what I wrote to my members last week to prepare them for the impending rally I was seeing:

As gold approached its highs of the past 3 years during this week, I am now hearing about how the RSI is hitting overbought levels, how the COT is suggestively bearish due to the commercial’s short positions, etc. But, very few understand these points within the appropriate context.

You see, if the market is indeed still within a bearish posture, then overbought indicators are indicative of the market preparing to turn down again. And, if the market had rallied in a 3-wave fashion, then I would clearly be viewing this overbought indication as significant.

However, when the market turns towards its bullish inclinations, as it has potentially done with a 5-wave rally off the May lows, simply reaching a level in an indicator which has been viewed as an “overbought” reading is not bearish. Rather, these indicators will embed during a strong bullish move (most specifically a 3^rd wave). This often fools everyone who is reading the indicator in the same way during a bullish trend as they do within a bearish trend. The same applies to the COT. We have seen many instances where the market has entered very long periods of extreme bullish action against the positioning of the commercial traders. So, again, I would not view this as dispositive of the nature of the market.

Rather, the one focus which is the common denominator of truth in the market is price. And, as I said this past week, once GLD breaks out over 127.25, we have to be on high alert that a 3rd wave parabolic rally can take hold at any time, similar to what was seen in early 2016.

In looking at the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) chart, this is what I am now seeing. With the breakout we have seen this past week, we now have a clear path directly to the $137/$138 region next. But, as you know, there are always going to be obstacles in the way. That is why, as prudent traders, we are always concerned about risk management.

While many deride my use of “alternative counts,” it is what keeps me on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time. If a primary count should fail, then I will know early enough to be able to adjust. So, I am always considering alternative perspectives as to where I may be wrong in my primary expectation, while continuing to follow my primary count. This is one of the ways in which I practice risk management.

There are quite a few miner charts that suggest this rally will take shape as a diagonal. So, I have to at least be concerned about the potential that GLD can morph into a similar pattern, while still remaining bullish in the bigger perspective. But, as long as it holds over the $129-$130 support region on all pullbacks from this point forth, it can accelerate to the $137/$138 region next.

Please note that a sharp break down below that support is unlikely to change its bullish overall larger degree nature; instead, it simply suggests that the pattern can morph into a diagonal. While I am not going to go into the difference this makes to the smaller degree perspective, I will say this: Should it morph, it will be more choppy over the coming weeks/months, as compared with a straight parabolic move higher followed by high-level and shallow consolidations, which I would normally prefer.

But I want to warn you that this market has surprised many investors and traders with this move up. In fact, many were even caught shorting for many reasons, as they did not see the impending rally as we did early on. And this market does not often allow a gentleman’s entry.

So, while some have stopped out on their short trades and are expecting the market to pull back so they can get an entry on the long side, experience has taught me that this can be a cruel market with regard to letting people on the train once it has left the station. While their analysis failed to recognize the rally setup before it began, they are now relying upon luck to provide them an entry opportunity, as they are now hoping for a pullback

https://tinyurl.com/yy8ubure

Looking great. I don’t like straight up moves because when the time comes to get out, you have to give up much of the gain.

I’m still stacking silver. If this is a true great move, expect the gold silver ratio to move toward traditional relationships.

Smile everyone. This may be a tremendous move.

rno

one of the random date gold Maple Leafs in storage would now fetch Mrs. Equiz or me 1855.14 fiat dollars if we were to sell any one of those ouces at the moment to Michael Levy at Bordergold.com. I notice that Egon von Greyerz occasionally notes that for those working with Australian or Canadian dollars they should be quite content with the fiat price of one ounce of gold relative to its all time high in their fiat currency of choice. Cheers. Equiz

https://tinyurl.com/y4uu5kww

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Here’s a good site to watch it. Scroll all the way down for history charts. We’re very close.

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-canada.html

All the best from Silverngold

Hey Canucks

Who is on the Canadian Gold  ATH watch ??

Ten bucks and we are there ……

“No One”  is watching this …….

Onward Pilgrims

Winedoc

Who is a crazy Canuck Now ??

Gold RSI is now in the 80’s which qualifies as very overbought. Of course it should be noted we stayed in the RSI 90’s for an indefinite period during the 2011 runup.

At this point its all about the STOCKS ..thats where the Leverage is   !

Yeah and some people step on the tracks of a Railroad when they hear the sound getting louder & louder to see what they can see  ..then POOF  ..just a grease spot left on the track !

Well, we’ve seen them do that in the stock market for the last 10 years. I can only hope they do it in pm’s- even if for only 10 months.

Volume in the shares is exploding.

I am hearing that lots of TA people are looking to short this rally, as it is just a correction.

The shorts are showing up and instead of cleaning up into the close, they are getting their asses handed to them.

At least that’s the way it appears to me right now with about an hour left.

Also the USD has no mojo, neither do treasury yields.

If we can sustain this ability to bounce back from the Cartel hits we will have a major change on our. hands…I hope it continues

Even my smelly ole NGD–that was stinking. up the place earlie came alive and is up 7%…it’s volume is already above the daily avg.

Silver may be about to pop…I see PAAS and SSRM are well up today.

PAAS opened well up, about 3.6 % up got sold off badly, but has now rallied right back as has SSRM ..somebody wants in, even though AG is acting like a dog.

As to who sells the shares down, almost every day on an up opening…..the scum for sure, but Algo’s I think do as well, as it happens nearly every time, so the first hour looks crap.