I’m not sure either but it’s a change. Their typical move in the last years is 200 or 100 up from the lows then a smack down.
Did you see all the GOPs including fake patriot Cruz whining about the tarrifs with Mexico over the border they didn’t do anything about when they had the chance. That was a smart move, money talks, especially to Mexico. But then we got Biden telling China to just wait till the elections he’ll give them a better deal after they were ready to sign. He’ll get ” him” a deal alright.

and I am going with you two…until I see your scenarios violated…only them will I know something has changed

I’m pretty sure we’re all with ya!

Not sure we all think you’re gonna be right but hey, I’m pulling for ya!

June 5 – Financial Times (Don Weinland and Archie Zhang): “A $647bn blind spot in financial reporting by China’s city and rural commercial banks is fuelling investor concerns that more of the country’s lenders face government intervention or collapse in the wake of the state takeover of Baoshang Bank. Baoshang was one of 19 banks with a combined Rmb4.47tn ($647bn) in assets that have yet to publish 2018 financial results, according to… Barclays. The delays are a potential sign of a build-up in non-performing loans and leave investors blind to how many of those assets may have turned into bad debt, as was the case with Baoshang, analysts said.”

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2019/06/weekly-commentary-horde-of-jumbo.html

No need to see the lunacy at work…look what happened yesterday with an extremely bullish Employment Report.

JNUG, NUGT, PM shares were down.

Why do you think that happened?

10 years ago when the ETF gambling was not so pervasive PM shares would have been through the roof.

Samb – when we have an up cycle I’m just like everybody else — everything is crossed it keeps going.

That said — I have a memory (i can remember the last decade as I chronicled much of it) — and I refuse to live in an eight-year old’s bubble mentality.

I just wish we had more adults in the room all the way up and down the line.

Cheers

Good to see you posting again!

Been a long time since we’ve seen you around these parts.

I guess all I can say is that I don’t know anything and haven’t for years. Just know it hasn’t been good, and I don’t know shite other than charts have been relatively useless when trying to predict upside action, but they’ve been great at predicting downside, as have the ridiculous COT’s.

Hope all is well with you!

Hook is all over it during Int. downturns but relatively silent during Int. cycle upturns. When the cycle turns up then is it because all these mis-informed specs  suddenly got their proper religion? Even the Hook Bible says it: Thou shalt not play options or Etf’s.  All would be well in gold land if these speculators would just wake up to this truth!   These speculators are really but a flea on the Central Bank’s and Banksters backs. But when you, as an analyst,  still can’t figure $golds downturn from its highs some 8 years ago then you must promulgate a theory that will absolve you. It has to be the option/Etf players. Try not to think any harder or state that you just don’t really know.

“Today’s bullish bias echoes a broader trend seen among GLD options traders. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 95,263 calls were bought to open in the past two weeks, compared to just 49,669 puts. The July series, in particular, has been popular in recent sessions, with almost 41,500 contracts collectively added at the July 126, 128, and 131 calls in the past five days.”

I don’t watch CNBC anymore but I imagine the Najarian brothers on “Fast Money” were going crazy bullish about the options action on GLD.

Personally, without silver and the shares running ahead, I think those option players are going to get wiped out.

Maybe the basis for a new poll. Where will gold close at the end of June? Below $1300, Above $1300, Above $1320, Above $1350, Above $1400? Below $1280?

With speculators now positioned for a breakout off a rate cut…your theory should see a good test in coming days.

Cheers

Here’s My Prediction: If the Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates 3 or 4 Times by Dec 11, Markets Are Going to Crap

by Wolf Richter• Jun 6, 2019• 85 Comments• Email to a friend

Stock market and corporate bond market are in la-la-land, pricing in an economic boom. They’re not seeing a rate-cut economy. So why would the Fed?

Granted, Wall Street always wants rate cuts, no matter what. But this is getting funny. The probability of three and even four rate cuts by December 11 are suddenly gaining the most favor in how the market are betting on 30-day Fed Fund futures. And the markets are now pricing in practically a zero-percent chance – currently a 2.2% chance up from a 0.8% chance yesterday – of no rate cut by December 11, the day of the Fed’s post-meeting announcement and press conference.

In other words, the market is betting there’s just a near-zero chance the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate will remain at the current range between 2.25% and 2.50% (chart via Investing.com):

Here’s My Prediction: If the Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates 3 or 4 Times by Dec 11, Markets Are Going to Crap

COMMENTS:

Perhaps, Bloomberg should be made to take a horse and buggy everywhere he travels around the US. If he has the need to go overseas, surely he can take a sailboat.

All in the name of climate change of course.

Whatever he intends to impose on the rest of us, should be imposed on that piece of shit too.

Never mind the thousands or hundreds of thousands of workers he intends to impose hardships upon their lives. The guy should be strung up by his gonads in Times Square. Effing New York City should eliminated from the map.

Well, I can say this for certain.

Charts have captured 1 out of the last 10 gold breakouts.

some strategies for dealing with FREE money and NEG interest  money ,besides paying off debt and mortgages  !!! Buyin like GOLD ,and whatever in case the Gubberment restricts that !  Lets Plan for contingencies  ..

The Federal Reserve’s two-day Chicago strategy conference laid the groundwork for the aggressive use of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, to counter the next recession, experts who attended the forum said.

With short-term interest rates in a range of 2.25%-2.5%, the Fed does not have a lot of ammunition to fight the next downturn. In the past, the Fed was able to slash rates by 5 percentage points to stimulate the economy as needed.

So the Fed is going to use “pretty aggressive, desperate, measures,” to stem the next recession, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

(WILL THEY PAY ME TO BORROW MONEY  ?  ILL TAKE  ABOUT 5 MILLION TO START..!)

The Yield Differential between 10-year (purple) and 3-month (lime) Treasury yields is now negative, a reliable early warning of recession.

Corporate bond spreads, the difference between lowest investment grade (Baa) and Treasury yields, are rising. An indicator of credit risk, a spread above 2.5% (amber) is an early warning of trouble ahead, while 3.0% (red) signals that risk is elevated.

Falling employment growth is another important warning. Annual employment growth below 1.0% (amber) would normally cause the Fed to cut interest rates. In the current scenario, that is almost certain.

What is holding the Fed back is average hourly wages. Annual growth above 3.0% is indicative of a tight labor market and warns against cutting rates too hastily.

Stats for Q1 2019 warn that compensation is rising as a percentage of net value added, while profits are falling. As can be seen from the previous two recessions (gray bars), rising compensation (as % of NVA) normally leads to falling profits and a recession. Cutting interest rates would accelerate this.

We all know 1350 is constant resistance but he has a more moderate PO on Gold. Usually I’m more conservative but see a potential in current atmosphere to hit a higher PO or near it even if brief.
He’s pointing to a possible recession which I’ll post next. As we are expecting to get hammered back down on the positive side if we have any left there is a possibility the institutional or level 1 s could come in early on Monday before we can see a breach of 1350 and gap up the price. Guess we’ll find out. Keep in mind if it does it will try to fill the gap by the next day so might get a better price the next day. Keep in mind also there are dollar shorts. Also oil heading to 50 which seems to be around its support area. Dyodd

Gold surges as the Dollar falls
The latest rally in Gold reinforces my bearish outlook for equities. Gold and Treasuries are rising as investors seek a safe haven from the likely turmoil in equities.
The Dollar Index plunged below its LT rising trendline, warning of a test of 95.

Gold responded, testing resistance at $1350. Breakout above $1350 would offer a medium-term target of $1400/ounce.

150 years ago, America was tied together
by a ribbon of steel.
https://railpictures.net/photo/699374/