Loading ...How This Bear Survived
Whatever happens, it was predictable all along than any bull market in gold would develop in such a way as to leave even bullion’s most devoted supporters skeptical. Assuming the rally continues to make its way higher by fits and starts, on low volume and without a sustained push, you should start asking yourself now whether you might be in the group of war-weary gold bugs that the bull is trying hardest to fool. [looking “ragged and divergent” as I have said]
Because so many of my subscribers are heavily invested in bullion, it has been my practice over the course of gold’s long correction to give rallies the benefit of the doubt to the extent possible. While we kept the $815 target in the back of our minds as gold fell, we were ready to put our skepticism aside if the hourly chart turned bullish. This time, however, I am being especially cautious – not out of fear that I will overestimate the rally’s power and longevity, but that I will underestimate it. We’ve become so used to bullion rallies that spike and then detumesce rapidly that this may have inured us to the real McCoy if and when it comes. If the current rally is indeed the real deal, we should see this confirmed by thrusts that turn minor “Hidden Pivot” rally targets into chop suey. The most immediate of them lies at 1280.00, whence, as noted above, a tradable pullback would become very likely. If the April contract makes short work of it, however, that would further shorten the odds that the rally is more than the bull-trap tease to which we’ve become accustomed. Moreover, and as I detailed here a week ago, an uncorrected push above the 1308.00 ‘Matterhorn’ peak recorded in January 2016 would turn the weekly chart impulsively bullish for the first time in years. That would provide the strongest evidence we’ve seen to date that the bear market begun in 2011 is over.