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The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
·
1h
BREAKING: The US is revoking Iran’s newly issued general license to export oil and is reimposing full sanctions on production and sales after Iran struck four commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz today, per a US official.

The US says Iran’s latest actions are “wholly unacceptable” and will be “met with consequences.”

The ones that need conservatorship the most want to be conservators. It would be hilarious if the consequences weren’t so disastrous.

Their economy sucks before and after war, war just gives them a excuse and one thing we have in common is other countries having their hand out too although more reactive then proactive idiotic schemes. That’s aside from the brutal internal troublemakers.

We can look at the condition of most of the world by the condition of our country since we have so many leeches attached like neutral gold as well as the condition it’s  economic sister  silver.

All political plays as usual. Remember in Feb the dollar headed straight down. Then suddenly who’s accumulating our dollar driving it straight up? If Europe wants to complain about us having enough sense to have a air conditioner for extreme weather event  and wants to hide behind net zero, new world order and emboldening any kinda terrorist with open borders creating problems they think were always supposed to fix and sacrifice for so they don’t have to or change their ways and keep up the illusion they can do no wrong no matter how many die or lives ruined let’s get out our list.

Dollar if it goes up it’s only artificial not based of economics since they think  we are supposed to be  welfare for all these other countries constantly draining our resources not real anyways. There’s different ways to look at the dollar chart but it has made a head and shoulders and still is in a channel down.

The bottom falls out of the metals. The shares have been telegraphing for two days. No way GDX holds the latest bottom, unless we see some kind of miracle.

Every. Single. Time.

My thoughts on it. First of all Iran never attacked any other country. Allegedly they supported resistance groups. Meanwhile the USA was supporting the European colony they created in 1948. So what’s the difference?

Meanwhile, I think Iran was happy to get attacked, because it gave them the perfect excuse to attack US military bases that were around them, they attacked that European colony, and other surrounding countries that sided with USA.

Plus Iran is showing off their war abilities.

I just heard on the news, the US got pissed about the attacks and stopped allowing Iran to sell Oil so up it flew and pushed gold lower.

Oil:  https://finviz.com/futures_charts?t=ENERGY&p=h

I also think Trump should have waited until the end of his term, to attack Iran, I don’t understand what the big hurry was all about after so many years of nobody doing anything.

Gold three days: https://finviz.com/futures_charts?t=METALS&p=h

I suspect it’s related to the suddenly higher oil price that started with the war, Miners burn a lot a lot of diesel fuel. Gold was high in February.

Gold: https://finviz.com/futures_charts?t=METALS&p=w

Oil was $60 in February, then suddenly it flew up past $100.

Oil: https://finviz.com/futures_charts?t=ENERGY&p=w

So far it looks like oil was the problem and with four tankers getting attacked, it pushed oil back up a little the past two days.

Oil three days: https://finviz.com/futures_charts?t=ENERGY&p=h

of the metals “not being down too much.”

What a joke. Let the nukes fly.

Got Paper? or digits? or ETF’s? or the real thing? Silver and gold in your hand? IMO you’re playing in a rigged casino; heads they win and tails you lose! Listen to Bo!

Biblical Timepoint–Critical Mass Coming – Bo Polny

ZH has an article about the price of Russian oil in the dumpster.

GDX breaks that bottom and we are so screwed.

I don’t get how these shares can drop so much, especially with the metals not getting hit too hard. My best silver stock is down 5%, worst down effing 9%. WTF??

I hate this stuff.

The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
·
2h
BREAKING: A fourth tanker has just been attacked and hit by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz US-backed southern corridor, struck by a drone and sustaining structural damage, per UKMTO.

This is the first time four vessels have been attacked in a single day since the war began.

Just 24 hours ago, UKMTO advised all ships to use the US-controlled southern corridor, claiming it’s the only “safe” route.

…certainly looks like an outlier…..

Not sure what’s going on with Iran, but it looks like they have to “jaw bone” ( and create skirmishes in the Straits of Hormuz) the price of oil higher ( they absolutely are scrounging for reserves). And the U.S desperately needs the price lower ( before mid-terms and to re-fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).

And as the price of oil goes higher, the higher the demand for $US, and once again, the PM’s go lower……

Just the way the cookie crumbles….

The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
·
38m
BREAKING: A tanker has just been attacked and hit by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz US-backed southern corridor, causing structural damage, per UKMTO.

This is the third vessel attacked in the Strait today, following Iran’s IRGC missile strikes on the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat and Saudi VLCC supertanker Wedyan.

Typical.

I may have spoke too soon …

Lukas Ekwueme
@ekwufinance
Gold open interest on COMEX is plunging to the lowest level in a decade… and silver open interest is doing the same.

At the same time, 448t of gold and ~6,000t of silver have left COMEX.

Paper exposure is collapsing while physical metal is leaving the exchange.

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Stress in the US private credit market is intensifying:

Investors requested a record -$15.6 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q2 2026.

This marks the 3rd consecutive quarterly increase by a total of +$13 billion, or +500%.

Furthermore, just 38% of these requests were met, down from 53% in Q1 2026, leaving $9.7 billion in unmet redemptions, the largest backlog on record.

Blue Owl’s flagship fund, Blue Owl Credit Income, was the most impacted at 19% of shares outstanding, with 14% unmet, the highest redemption rate among its large competitors.

This was followed by Apollo, at 16% requested with 11% unmet, and Ares, at 14% requested with 9% unmet.

Meanwhile, inflows into the private credit industry declined -75% since January to ~$500 million in May, the smallest monthly intake in at least 18 months.

The private credit crisis shows no signs of slowing.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2074264867465265618

The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC fired at least two missiles at multiple commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with two commercial ships hit and suffering significant damages, per a US official.

One of these ships is on fire in the US-backed southern corridor off the coast of Oman.

So, the metals gains they didn’t take from Friday yesterday, they are going to take back today it appears, which explains the share weakness.

As is the norm, we will be set back to Thursday on the metal prices, and below Thursday on the share prices after they take their chunk of flesh today.

Completely unwinnable game at this point.

Rates up, dollar up slightly. The beat goes on.

So the ETFs and the miners they followed brought the stocks to all time highs but sold off taking them with them. I hope the major selling is about exhausted especially since money is moving out of certain sectors into sectors that need the metals.

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.01%.  The dollar erased early gains on Monday and posted modest losses on negative carryover from last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US June payroll report, which reduced the chances of the Fed tightening monetary policy, a negative factor for the dollar.

The dollar initially moved higher on Monday following the as-expected June ISM services index report. The dollar also found support amid yen weakness after Japanese authorities failed to intervene in the forex market to support the yen while US markets were closed last Friday for a holiday, a previous prime time for Japan’s intervention

The US Jun ISM services index fell -0.5 to 54.0, right on expectations.  The Jun ISM services price-paid sub-index eased to 67.7 from 71.3 in May, stronger than the 67.5 expected.

The swaps markets are discounting the odds at 25% for a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Monday rose by +0.04%.  The euro recovered from early losses on Monday and posted modest gains after the dollar gave up an early advance and moved lower.  The euro also garnered support after the Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index rose more than expected to a 4-month high and German May factory orders rose more than expected.  Gains in the euro were contained due to Monday’s weaker-than-expected Eurozone May retail sales report.

Eurozone May retail sales rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index rose by 10.3 to a 4-month high of -3.1, beating expectations of -10.0.

German May factory orders rose +1.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.1% m/m.

The markets are discounting a +3% chance for a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on July 23.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) on Monday rose by +0.47%.  The yen retreated on Monday after Japanese authorities failed to intervene in the forex market in support of the yen while US markets last Friday were closed for a holiday, a favorite time for intervention by Japan. The yen moved lower despite a jump in Japanese government bond yields, as the 10-year JGB yield soared to a 29-year high of 2.841% on Monday, which strengthened the yen’s interest rate differentials.

The risk of intervention in currency markets to support the yen is high, as the yen remains firmly above 160 per dollar at a 39-year low.  Japanese authorities have intervened in the forex market several times in the past when the yen reached that level.

The markets are discounting a +1% chance of a +25 bp BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on July 31.

August COMEX gold (GCQ26) on Monday closed up +41.80 (+1.01%), and September COMEX silver (SIU26) closed up +1.266 (+2.07%).

Gold and silver prices rallied sharply on Monday, posting 1.5-week highs.  Precious metals have carryover support from last Thursday when the weaker-than-expected US June payrolls report reduced the chances of the Fed tightening monetary policy.  Also, Monday’s weaker crude oil prices have lowered inflation expectations and may prompt central banks worldwide to ease monetary policy, a bullish factor for precious metals.  In addition, the dollar on Monday gave up an early advance and turned lower, a supportive factor for precious metals.

Recent fund liquidation of precious metals is bearish for prices, as long holdings in gold ETFs fell to a 9.5-month low last Friday, after reaching a 3.5-year high on February 27.  Also, long holdings in silver ETFs fell to an 11.25-month low last Tuesday from the 3.5-year high posted on December 23.

Strong central bank demand for gold is supportive of gold prices, following news that bullion held in China’s PBOC reserves rose by +320,000 ounces to 74.96 million troy ounces in May, the largest monthly increase in 17 months, and the nineteenth consecutive month the PBOC boosted its gold reserves

Dollar Erases Early Gains as Fed Rate Hike Prospects Ease https://share.google/evUwy2kRStc5muGil

Swiss Champagne
https://www.railpictures.net/photo/906657/