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The 2026 silver shortage was a real structural deficit, not a fake scare. Mining output did not instantly increase because roughly \(70\%\) of silver is extracted as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining. The structural squeeze was heavily exacerbated by China implementing strict export controls starting January 1, 2026, which effectively restricted the outflow of Chinese-refined silver to global markets. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The 2026 Supply & Demand Reality
Despite some thrifting and substitution in the solar (photovoltaic) sector, the silver market is tracking a sixth consecutive annual deficit (projected at roughly \(46.3\) million ounces). A single massive short-squeeze in early 2026 sent silver prices to an all-time nominal high of \(\$121.64\) per ounce before profit-taking and margin adjustments corrected spot prices to around \(\$56\) to \(\$58\). However, physical supply at the institutional and retail levels remains exceptionally tight. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Silver Price Outlook for 2030
Most institutional analysts and market experts believe silver prices will continue to rise, potentially reaching targets between \(\$100\) and \(\$140\) per ounce by 2030, driven by the following factors: [1, 2, 3]
Irreversible Industrial Consumption: Silver is permanently consumed by high-growth industries like artificial intelligence infrastructure, EV manufacturing, advanced electronics, and the ongoing rollout of 5G. [1, 2]
Inelastic Supply: Because global silver production depends heavily on base metal prices and features long lead times (5–10 years) for new primary mines, supply cannot rapidly scale up to meet this demand. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Strategic Metal Reclassification: China’s reclassification of silver as a strategic material has severely tightened global supply lines, forcing the U.S. and other nations to treat physical metal as a critical resource. [1, 2]
The main point is not that China suddenly has a new weapon everyone can identify. It is that the ground around its nuclear silos is changing quickly, and that change fits a wider buildup the Pentagon says could leave China with more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
You can treat the injured without reporting but if you don’t address the needs of the injured or denying more medical support prior to this happening especially when there was a eminent threat is another. It’s a two edge sword, it also commands concern from their own. I think they were more ” concerned” about their people being concerned for their own. The enemy tends to find out by themselves or lie about the number of casualties they caused vs their own anyways.
Now it owns 847,363 worth $51bn. Share price now at market value of the BTC.
Meanwhile, all my ounces still seem to be there. But then, I guess all the noughts and ones are still there too. Just more noughts than there used to be, I suppose ….
I can see why people go for a gold ETF as it means they can trade it as easily as they can shares, trusting that the underlying asset is actually held in a vault somewhere. It’s convenient and saves them having to think too much. But I can’t understand why someone would buy shares in a company that exists to buy digital assets that sit in a wallet/trading exchange when you could equally easily buy the digital assets the same way.
Lol The sandbox. Don’t bet on it. When they seen what happens to the goldbugs over and over they’re probably only going to buy later or newbies at the high. If they have no stops they will ride it down but seems to me the majority of the ones who hold the line so to speak to the lows but do not sell them are the goldbugs.
Cargo Vessel Comes Under Apparent Iranian Attack Near Oman, Crude Jumps, After IRGC Warned It Controls Hormuz Strait
Iran tightens control over Hormuz: The IRGC says ships must obtain authorization to transit the strait or face enforcement action.
Shipping disruptions emerge after increased flows: A tanker near Oman was reportedly attacked, and several vessels turned back after Iranian warnings, sending oil prices higher.
Tehran seeks billions in transit fees: Iran wants to impose Hormuz passage charges that it says could generate up to $40 billion annually.
Rubio rejects the plan: The U.S. says Gulf states offer “zero support” for Iranian tolls and warns they would undermine freedom of navigation.
In my view re PMs outsiders see the prices rising, and wait too long, and they all barge (with paper GLD SLV contracts ETFs etc) buy in on the highs and drive prices even higher.
Then, no outside buyers left, prices start dropping and they start losing money and all start selling all the nonsense paper crap they bought, selling at the market, and take losses and drive prices too low.
Hopefully they learned a lesson and won’t come into our sand box anymore. Naturally, we will be adding to positions on the lows, as the gamblers are selling out on the lows.
The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
·
10h
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC Navy declares the US-backed Omani alternative southern route for the Strait of Hormuz, announced yesterday, “unacceptable and completely dangerous,” asserting that only routes announced by Iran are authorized for passage and warning that “violator vessels will be dealt with.” The statement adds that every ship now attempting to pass through the southern route without coordination will be forced to stop and will be targeted, per Tasnim.
This directly rejects the US-backed Omani framework that tried to bypass Iran’s sovereign control in the Strait of Hormuz by routing traffic along the Musandam Peninsula, with Iran asserting that any navigation outside routes it has announced is “strictly prohibited,” and mandatory coordination via Channel 16 will be required for all passage.
I would argue that you cannot have a super bull in pm’s because of the constant manipulation. They consistently destroy the momentum needed to sustain a super bull and therefore exhaust the buying prematurely. I agree that it was a strange way to end a super bull, that was the intent. It was an unnatural way for it to end. It has taken me 25 years to figure this out. 🙂
BTW, the same might be said for oil and gas. The difference being that oil stocks actually perform.
The Vigilant Fox 🦊
@VigilantFox
·
Jun 22
Tucker Carlson says he’s officially done supporting the Republican Party after 35 years.
Listen closely to how he ends it. That’s not a man quitting. That’s a man counting.
“There’s no chance I would support the Republican Party. Not going to support the Democratic Party. I don’t know what I’m going to do.”
“How could I, or any American voters, support a political party that’s not loyal to the United States, that puts the interests of a foreign country above those of its own citizens?”
“It’s not possible to vote for people like that. And I’m not going to.”
Every super Bull normally ends with a blow off top and the whole world talking about that mkt…..even individual commodity mkts do it , albeit to a lesser degree than the SM. ie Cocoa just recently.
Joe Kennedy made his fortune in the nineteen twenties, by selling when his shoe shine guy was telling him what to buy…..the great commodity mkts of 70’s/80’s, got onto TV…..The PM bull in the 80’s had queues down the street to sell antique Gold and Silver, everyone was talking about the Bull……the ’87 crash in the SM had everyone in the SM, same as the Dot Com Boom…..
I would argue we have not seen any classic mania signs……How many new posters have come to the Tent……but I am biased .
