OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

ZH readers= this corona virus collapse will make those other collapses look like a walk in the park.

Posted by Richard640 @ 5:12 on May 19, 2020  

 

I am baffled by the number of analysts that think this will blow over and the economy  will come back to full productivity by the end of the year.  It’s been 12 years since we saw a stock market collapse, and I am guessing the newbie analysts and investors who are under 32 years old have zero experience with analyzing a financial collapse.  They are looking at the economy through rose colored glasses.
I have been through 3 major collapses in 1987, 2000, and 2008 and I can tell you that== The global economy will have to function with 20-30 percent of the consumers unemployed and without any income for many years to come.
In your dreams if you think there will be  a V shaped recovery.  My expectation is for a series of L’s before we bottom in 2021-2022. 

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The fed is in charge now.   They will pump to the moon.    This is the great divorce of the financial economy from the real economy.     There is no stopping stocks now.     It matters not what we actually produe cause the market will go up.  

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Nice post. Reminds me of a phone call I had last week with a retired investment councilor friend of mine.

Best calls are for 90% of pre-virus economy. (my guess is 80%) These people have no idea how fragile this economic engine we have built is. Supply lines will take a couple yrs at least.

There will be a bit of a spike as folks celebrate being let out of their homes, but it will soon fade and the 20%+ unemployment will destroy this consumer debt driven economy.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.