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Playing this indicator – known as the Commitment of Traders Report, or COT – is of course just a way to pass the time while the real underlying forces affecting precious metals work themselves out.
Those forces – rapidly accumulating debts which leave central banks no choice but to inflate away their currencies – are still accelerating in most places, and the inevitability of mass-devaluation will become clear when the central banks now talking about “interest rate normalization” and “balance sheet reduction” are forced to admit that those things are impossible, and all that’s left is debt monetization as far as the eye can see.
On that day it won’t matter what futures traders – or junior miner ETFs – are doing. The physical precious metals bid will go infinite — that is, big players holding useless cash will buy up all the gold and silver that’s available, at pretty much any price that’s demanded.