Loading ...On the surface markets remain quiet. Not even yesterday’s announcement of the Republican’s new health plan has had a noticeable impact. In fact, leading averages S&P 500 and the DJI (Dow-Jones Industrial Average) actually eked out new all-time highs this week. It would take enormous courage to recommend selling in the teeth of such sustained buying, but as always we are compelled to truthfully report our observations. We are not always right, but we always believe it.
Despite the Uptrends, in our judgment a number of our important proprietary Technical Indicators predict that this market will soon be turning lower. The confluence is that leading averages are in Uptrends while Indicators are pointed down, challenging us as to whether we should stay with the uptrend, or try to anticipate the decline.
When might the market be in such a possible decline? Nobody is smart enough to pick the exact day, but if the Top is going to come we expect it around this summer, July and August. Any more precise than that? If we had our arm twisted, we would guess the selling will be in July, maybe within the month’s early days. Around the July 4th holiday will see the surprise decline. We also suspect that the market Top would approximately coincide with a resumption of the long-term gold and silver bull markets, and we are still confident that their very high price rises are somewhere ahead in what we call “The Coming Wave III.”
In these sleepy markets, where on the surface not much appears to be happening, in fact the combination of frothy over optimism in some of China’s blue-chips (such as Tencent and Alibaba) also look as if they should be sold, believe the unbelievable or not.
Again giving us pause is that the precious-metals stocks might be beginning to firm, led by palladium metal having reached another new high. Sensing that the market is waiting for some kind of event to move it off its flatness, that event might be in the geopolitical arena. America for the first time has shot down a Syrian plane, Russia’s client that had been bombing American-backed ground forces.