Loading ...Sometimes “greed” is not good.
The last time the market was this ‘extreme‘ in its greed did not end well, but as FOMO dominates any downside fears, Citigroup’s Panic-Euphoria indicator – which tracks metrics from margin debt to options trading and newsletter bullishness – has reached its highest since the August tumble and equaled its highest since the peak of the dotcom bubble…
“Our sense is that the idea of no alternatives to buying broad-based equities has led to an overshoot,” Tobias Levkovich, the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note.“Current euphoric readings signal a 100% probability of losing money in the coming 12 months if we study historical patterns – indeed, we saw such levels back in early September as well right before a selloff in stocks.”
It’s a very tough one. There’s the Wall Street short term view. Then there’s the 5 to 10 year view. Look at Amazon who invest like crazy… is it really done growing? I doubt it. It’s $1.5 trillion which sounds shocking… but from a price to sales perspective it’s 5x. Is it that shocking? Not compared to many (albeit smaller) stocks.
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So if you ask me… I’d say conservatively AMZN will at least double 5 years from now… where else can I get such returns? I can do 70 pc cash and 30 percent Amazon and would likely beat going 100 pc long in an index fund for a fraction of the risk.
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The way the dollar is going down, people would rather own anything else. It’s game theory and everyone knows what the Fed will do if asset prices show any hint of a significant drop.
Such a stupid article, as there is nothing similar about now and then.
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Back then there was NO propping up ALL asset prices the way they are now.
These markets are propped up by the plunge protection team and countless trillions of dollars.
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If you have capital you can NOT lose in this market!
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Stupid historical comparisons where nothing is identical between the periods. The only thing that can pop this market if civil war.