Loading ...Professor: Trump has 91% chance to win=On 3/16.20 he predicted then-Donald Trump had an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton.
The model has a laudable track record. Established in 1996 by Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpoth, the Primary Model correctly picked the victors in multiple presidential elections — including the last one.
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On March 7, 2016, it predicted then-candidate Donald Trump had an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton.
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“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall. The list is long and discouraging
for early front-runners. Beginning with Thomas Deweyin 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael
Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004 — to cite just the most spectacular cases,” Mr. Norpoth advises
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