Loading ...it doesn’t look good for key west in the next few hours. it looks like the northerly turn has finally started – twelve or fifteen hours later than forecast. the windspeed has dropped to 120 mph, and the forward motion is down to 6 mph. the 23:00 nhc advisory reports the center is moving northwest (straight for key west). doppler radar on weather underground looks more like wnw. maybe the picture will be clearer in the morning. maybe not.
Key west losing power
Someone said earlier that there are still people there and some people are planning on riding it out in a boat. That some boats have already broke free and floating out to sea and he hopes no ones in them. That waves could get as high as 30 ft.
See dogs or cats stuck outside hope people can give them shelter.
One woman took a picture of two cute Parots looking in her window like they wanted in. I’m guessing since it was a high rise she couldn’t open the window.
Hope those little guys find a place out of the wind.
More than 50 animals found tethered to trees in Palm Beach County as Irma approaches
‘It’s unconscionable. We will not stand for it.’
And these aren’t pets who are just being left inside, Director of Animal Care Diane Suave said.
“They are left in a yard, in a pen they cannot escape from or tethered to trees or poles,” she said.
Palm Beach County Animal Care reports animal control officers have rescued 49 dogs and two cats in the last 48 hours.
This latest update comes just one day after local animal officals reported finding dozens of dogs chained to trees and parked cars.
“Even a tiny bit of sand can hurt an animal when it’s traveling through 100-plus mph winds,” Sauve said.
Sauve said once winds reach a sustained 35 mph, no officers will be permitted to rescue animals.
“We are asking the public, if it is safe, consider sheltering any animals you see left outside,” she said.
http://www.wptv.com/weather/hurricane/more-than-50-animals-found-tethered-to-trees-in-palm-beach-county-as-irma-approaches
irma 20:15 friday
weather underground doppler radar shows the center of irma skimming the north coast of cuba estimated 100 miles east of havana. irma is still moving a little north of due west – along the same bearing she has been following coming up from puerto rico. THIS AFTERNOON’S NORTHERLY TURN PROJECTED BY MANY COMPUTER MODELS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED — YET !!
IF this continues, or if the turn is less sharp, the west coast of florida may get a break, and irma’s forecast path shifts further west. in this case, the gulf coast comes into harm’s way. panama city? pensacola? mobile? probably not as far west as n’awlins.
irma’s max sustained winds are down to 120 mph, and the storm center’s movement has slowed to 7 mph. if she travels across the open gulf, these numbers may rebuild.
remember this one that was supposed to turn north and hit the florida panhandle? it turned north all right, just not where expected.
Florida
That’s good you don’t have to evacuate yet. I saw earlier threat of surges coming in from Daytona to Georgia. It still looks to be heading west but who knows. Remember you can’t have enough water. Hope you and all other Floridians here keep in touch next few days. Now tornado warnings from the bands coming in we’re seeing. I hope people don’t rely on aquafiers.
16:30 edt friday
friday weather underground’s live weather shows irma’s center is presently skimming the north coast of cuba approx 125 miles due east of havana. max sustained winds 125 mph. moving west at 9 mph. IT HAS NOT YET BEGUN THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY TURN !!! if this continues to be so, the gulf coast will be in harm’s way. panama city? mobile? n’awlins?
Ororeef
Southern most point was down for awhile but when came in there was a Jeep in front of it with a guy and a ladder inside. People still there.
Now five people there taking pictures
Darwinism
http://southernmostpointwebcam.com
Florida
Daytona no longer safe Risk for surge going north up to 6 ft and waves as big as 20 ft. Awesome surfing waves but lethal wind and rip tides a no go. Hard to surf with a helmet. Kidding aside take care.
Correction: Southernmost Point in CONTINENTAL US
True US southernmost point is South Point of the Big Island of Hawaii here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ka_Lae
Key West
The Keys look like a direct hit. I’m hoping and praying that Wanka made it out to safety. I know in the past he would ‘poo-poo’ approaching storms and ride them out… mostly to his advantage. Bit Irma is different… bigger… and hitting directly.
I’ve been thru hurricane passes here where they bump up against our large volcanic mountains, but at least we have high ground. I cannot imagine attempting to ride out the storm on coral reefs only a few feet above mean sea level. …cuz that sea level sometimes gets MEAN!
update 14:00 edt friday. weather underground shows irma center skimming north coast of cuba est. 150 mi due east of havana. max sustained winds 125 mph …still moving westerly.
Alex
That’s far out already but the width of this one his huge. It went down to Cat 3 after hitting Cuba. Cuba prepared too. When it hits those warm water it could increase back up again but hopefully not but wind still strong. Naples now projected to get up to 15 Ft surge.
about 200 miles from the center of IRMA
and the outer bands of the storm passed here ( Central Florida ) about an hour ago .
The next two days are going to be very interesting !
it’s not like it was in the old days….
i used to enjoy hurricanes much more before i owned any real estate.
I see Armstrong put out a hurricane chart more like history
After I emailed him about cycles after his post all calm on the gulf side. Calm before the storm lol Can’t just look out on the ocean days before and say all okay for now. He’s doing what a lot of those who make mistakes only focusing on Cat 5 that has killed people thinking if it isn’t a Cat 5 it won’t be bad and can’t kill you or or get you stuck on top of your house waiting to be rescued if they bring in surges like they do in the gulf area which side he’s on.
irma la (not so much) douce
CRUNCH TIME ! now, (or soon) we get to see the widely predicted northerly turn from so many computer models.
a) if the turn is early (it wasn’t) or sharper than forecast, the florida east coast gets a dose of wet hell.
b) if it happens as forecast, the peninsula takes a hit. irma, losing force as she travels north over land, crosses into georgia as a tropical storm.
or…
c) the turn is a little (or a lot) later and/or not as sharp as projected. …irma travels north over the open gulf. …NOT losing strength… to make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast.
or…
d) other, some combination of the above
i’m going to be watching closely to see how this turn shakes out. i imagine i’m not the only one.
Its already done !
Tom McClellan: Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold
There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.
Defining a normal tolerance for gold’s 8-year cycle is a pretty iffy proposition. We have only 5 prior examples to go by, and while they cover a period of over 40 years, anyone who ever studied statistics knows that n<30 is problematic. If you want to wait until n=30 before believing in this cycle, then you only have to wait until the year 2215.
If you are willing to accept the message from fewer iterations, then this week’s chart has some interesting insights to offer. A few years ago I constructed this idealized 8-year cycle pattern, and featured it in our newsletter. The one leg up, 3-waves down pattern has “worked” ever since gold finally started trading freely in 1975, with one major exception. From 2001 to 2009, the normal “left translation” flipped to a more bullish right translation mode. Aside from that one strong uptrending period, gold’s price pattern has matched this artificial pattern pretty well.
The relevance of that insight for the current period is that the next major 8-year cycle bottom is due this autumn. Ideally it should be due in February 2017, but another tool suggests that late 2016 is more likely to see the arrival of that bottom.
There is a dominant 13-1/2 month cycle in gold prices. The next major cycle low is ideally due in October 2016, but gold regularly makes bottoms plus or minus a month from the ideal cycle bottoms. So this is not a tool that will allow anyone to reasonably pencil in a hard date for when the cycle low is due.
Still, an autumn 2016 bottom for the 13-1/2 month cycle fits well with the idea of a major 8-year cycle low due in late 2016 to early 2017. One additional insight from the 13-1/2 month cycle is that we have already seen “right translation” of the price pattern versus this cycle, and that one piece of information conveys bullish portents for the likelihood of a higher price high for gold in 2017, once we get past the upcoming big cycle low.
Bottom Line: We have two major long-term cycles, both calling for an important bottom in gold prices in late 2016. That’s a big deal. The two are independent of each other, and their confluence in calling for a bottom later this year has strong implications. Gold prices ought to be expected to drop downward into that cycle low, but more importantly we should expect a big uptrend to commence out of that major cycle bottom. It will be hard for gold bugs to be patient and wait for that major cycle low to arrive, but the long term cycles say that the ensuing rally should be worth the wait.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Mark
Richard640 @ 11:41 on September 9, 2017
When you are looking at MOMENTUM Indicators you must consider that when it reaches the upper levels of a Range does not mean a drop is immanent.
Those momentum indicaters are confined to the pre set limits of the range of the chart and in FACT those high Range indicators can stay there for MONTHS while the actual Prices can sky rocket straight up for 6 months sometimes, while on the momentum Indicator of the chart it simply moves sideways .
“Understanding” what you are looking at is key .!
9-9—My good buddy Mike Ballinger on COTs
“Every stock market bull out there whether in New York or London or Mumbai or Beijing is in a drunken myopia of elevated expectations and deviated denial scrambling and scratching and pleading for assurances that “it is truly different this time”.”
Cot Report
Overbought readings shown below add to the difficulty of staying 100%-long gold and silver despite the ragingly-bullish seasonal factors. I took down all leverage in the accounts earlier this week but remain fully-invested with all but .8% in cash. The battle will continue to rage on into next week so strap on your seat belts and life jackets and pray that thibgs are truly “different” this time…
Have a great weekend,
MJB
Michael J. Ballanger, B.Sc.,B.A., CIM
Editor and Publisher
Gold and Gold Miners
Email: mballanger@rogers.com
Skype: mjballanger