OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Same as you…LI, ny. First Queens then Nassau. The women relished the idea of being financially independent. Not only would they help the monthly budget but, that old washboard could be scrapped for an automatic washer in due time. The men were not thrilled about it but just accepted it out of necessity. That’s how it was. Orders were given to the elder children to take care of the young ones and to bring in those heavy steel garbage cans, etc., Orders were followed.

“Why are you looking for a fly in the soup ’50s…”

Just because your life wasn’t affected doesn’t mean that everything was peachy keen.  I guess you missed that part where businesses had to close down.  As long as it wasn’t your business, then life is just grand, eh?

but can you wait until after OE on Thursday? I need my JDST to clear the deck first. 🙂

And thanks for the articles posted this evening. A man needs a little optimistic news in the gold pits these days. When ‘daddy’s bank account’ ( The Fed) dries up, the general markets are headed to Zool in a hurry, and the PM’s will be one of the few places to run. imho.

I am expecting a very rewarding fall season for the goldbugs.

I was only 14 years old. I don’t remember any hard times, so I googled it.

Part:

“a sharp economic decline that only lasted eight months. By the time recovery began in May 1958, most lost ground had been regained. As 1958 ended, the economy was heading towards new high levels of employment and production. ”

Comment:

If your going 90 MPH with a loaf under each arm, and slow down to 65 MPH and lost one loaf, it can feel like a down turn. Like China slowing from GDP of 10 to GDP of 7 :). Nobody’s wife worked after the war. During yes. But not after.

My older brother had first a Model A ford $5. Later on a 49 Ford Convertible, then a 50 Chevy convertible, then a 54 Ford convertible, and later on got married, and a 1959 Chevy convertible. My father bought a brand new 1960 Ford.

The cars were SOOOOO simple to fix. My brother once changed the clutch in 3 spd stick tranny on the 50 Chevy at the curb in the snow. Tune ups? Plugs points and condenser. Gap the points with a match book cover. The fuel pump was a little thing $10 on the outside of the engine.

The 50s and 60s were great. If some people were humble there must have been something wrong. Lazy? Handicapped? Twelve children? Wrong occupation? Minimum wage was adequate for two kids. My grandfather unskilled labor had 8 kids and wife not working.

After the Great depression the Gov’t (tax absorbers) got smart and did not allow people, to pay other people coolie wages. Call it a tax on business. After 1971? The gov’t (run by business) allowed coolie wages. (tax breaks)

Why are you looking for a fly in the soup ’50s and ’60s?? 🙂 Imports and globalization killed USA living standards after 1975. The only really good years were an accident between ’45 to ’75.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1958

Market Forces are Aligning for a Powerful Trend in Gold Prices

Lior Gantz, founder of Wealth Research Group, believes that fundamentals for precious metals have been confirmed and expects a major rally.

Now, a greater portion of investment banks’ commodities revenue is coming from more liquid and transparent products — and generally less profitable — such as jet fuel hedges for airlines, or simple natural-gas swaps, according to an ex-Wall Street trading executive who asked for anonymity so that he could speak freely.

“It’s back to how it was in the mid-90s where it was just a client intermediation, risk management focus,” Trapp said.

Goldman may yet decide that its initial instinct was correct and continue waiting for a rebound in the commodities business. Or it may shrink its commodities division — much as its long-time rival Morgan Stanley has done.

“The low-volatility environment that we’re in now is unprecedented and unlikely to persist,” says Craig Pirrong, a business professor at the University of Houston. “This would probably be the wrong time to get out.”

http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/features/it-s- crunch-time-for-goldma
n-sachs-in-commodities- 1.2063016

You neglected to mention the awful recession of the late 50s…it made life hell for a bunch of people.

The Recession of 1958, also known as the Eisenhower Recession, was a sharp worldwide economic downturn in 1958. The effect of the recession spread beyond United States borders to Europe and Canada, causing many businesses to shut down.

You think I’m not going to do it? This is the best car for the money anywhere. PERIOD!  No car dealer scumbags, markups, cons for floor mats, people faking it in other rooms wasting my time. No emissions test, practical, safe. I’m in.

Ernie Petrocine, a Tesla owner in Colorado, calls the Model 3 “the best car in the world for $35,000”, though he doesn’t expect it to cost him anything like that. With $7,500 in federal subsidies and a further $6,000 from Colorado, he hopes to bring the cost down to $22,000. Read more at FT

Re your…

“Also the picture that you paint of the good old times was not true for many, most especially white collar workers. They did not have a union to protect them.”

You did not mention what area of the country was depressed in the 40s and 50s. I would be interested to know. I guess a lot depends on the state people live in. I was in manufacturing, (birth of wealth) and not protected by any union. No unions in any sheet metal or machine shop. Unions only in duct shops real estate related.

On long Island there was excessive manufacturing businesses. Shortage of employees. Plenty of over time pay too. It was almost mandatory. You would get “punished” if you refused it and insulted the boss.

In a sense, office workers were simply not worth as much. Not producing anything. They were considered overhead costs, and supported by manufacturing profits. The office workers should have gotten jobs in manufacturing. Not as cushy though. Noise, hot, smelly, get burnt cut, hurt your back etc etc. More fun in the office taking the easy way out.

Watch the Smithsonian Channel. Lately they are showing “America in color”, re the 30s 40s 50s etc. The late forties they said set the stage for prosperity.

Road projects, people buying cars, taking two week vacations, “see the USA in your Chevrolet” Christmas  gifts under the tree etc etc etc.

If Minimum wage kept up to inflation then there would be no inflation to speak of for most.  Also the picture that you paint of the good old times was not true for many, most especially white collar workers. They did not have a union to protect them. From the late 40’s to the mid 50’s many, many struggled to provide for their family’s. And many children’s piggy banks were appropriated so as to have a small meal on the dinner table. I know, I was a witness there.

Edit, This was the initial period where women first contemplated leaving their home to get a job other then housewife. A decade later it became common for women to find employment once again. Two provider incomes then became the standard for the middle class.

Far East and Europe were fine, but as soon as US SM opened scum have sat on shares non stop……another example of flat out corruption….

and just to piss realists off some more, that joke TSLA is up over 4 % !!!!!

Geno’s upstairs apartment around 1966 was $90/month including utilities. So it took 64 hours of $1.40 min wage, to cover the $90/mo.

The same apartment these days is $1500/mo.

At todays Min Wage $7/hr the same apt needs 214 hours on min wage instead of 64 hrs. If you divide 64 hrs into todays $1500 rent, it means Min wage today should be $23.43 to equate the $1.40/hr.

Back in the day, a poor person, or high school graduate, could buy many of the same things as a wealthy person.  A Corvette, Cadillac, waterfront house etc. With loans of course. The rich back then probably didn’t like that. 🙂

I did mean the games will take down the brokerage houses. The situation you mentioned is an example. What happens if the stock goes up and the buyers cash in? The brokerage is on the hook for the amount of the shares not purchased . What about all the naked shorting of the stock they want to drive down? What happens when the derivatives go against them? The brokerage houses use house accounts to move the markets the way they want them to go. They sell huge options and buy the opposite options and then push the market at expiration. They buy up huge amounts of mortgages and package them for sale.They also sell derivatives against the best interest of their clients.

This all takes huge amounts of  fiat. If the fiat spigot runs dry, The whole system runs against them. Think EF Hutton. Even a lot of people who are correct in the market will lose because the brokerages become insolvent. Look up MF Global.

rno

I probably will not enter the cryptocurrency thing but no one ever mentions the black market it will create. The cryptocurrency market is screaming failure of the fiat system. Good money has always driven out the bad since history was first recorded. The results have always been the same. Introduce a currency, get good acceptance and then start the debasing process. The romans used silver coins. At first they made them smaller and then alloyed the coins. The chinese were the first with paper money and the results were so bad that everyone refused to accept it.

During all that time, barter was still in operation. Real wealth and resources are always in demand. If you can’t trust paper money, how can anyone trust something that doesn’t exist outside an electronic machine ?

Governments may very well go to a cryptocurrency and a consumption tax. Think of the opportunities in barter! Government agents will treat the whole economy like the bootleggers in alcohol.

rno

I’ll add to that. If more people stop paying their mortgage down, same as contraction in the money supply will tank housing again.

I know about 5 people not paying, and the banks are paying the property taxes. After 6 years in NY the mtg becomes unenforceable.

Geno, I know since 10 years old. Both took up industrial precision sheet metal parts fabrication in 1964. It takes 10 years to be an “A Mechanic”. By 1975 the prosperity was over and on the way down.

He bought a $1967 Corvette Stingray, big block 427 with three 2 bbl carbs, total cost, $4508. Minimum wage was $1.40/hr. 3,220 hrs of min wage.

Corvette today? $75,000? Min Wage $7/hr? Now you need 10,714 hrs of minimum wage. Or, to repeat 1967, 3220 hrs, it puts adjusted min wage at $23.29/hr to equate the past to buy $75,000 Corvette.

Rich, look back 30 years and how many banks and brokerages failed. The reason is leverage. Margin buying coupled with derivatives give leverage 16-25 times the underlying asset. That’s why the stock market is held up to prevent all that leverage working to the downside. Off balance sheet deals are immense (think Enron). Too many investments are made with opm (other peoples money). Banks pay very little interest on cd’s and lend to hedge funds. The banks and hedge fund managers take the vast majority of gains and the people who think they have a safe investment get the crumbs. When things go bad, the people at the banks, brokerage houses and others that take fiat from one side and loan it out simply walk away. The leverage losses are tremendous and the losers can’t pay and the winners want their fiat. The people in the middle can’t cover so they walk away.

If the bailout of 08 didn’t happen, we would be coming out of depression now. The federal government is running under the previous administration budget. 2018 is the make or break year. The coming budget negotiation is going be be pure chaos. Any contraction in the money supply will tank housing again. Rinse and repeat on those mortgage backed securities. Big box stores will take a huge hit and lose more business to amazon . Auto sales will take another big hit. Don’t forget another round of farm foreclosures. Job losses will be the biggest government report lie.

A continuing stream of fiat is required for financial institutions to continue operations. The 08 bailout was done with huge volumes of 30 year bond sales to the federal reserve. Another bailout would cause a dollar collapse. You may be seeing the early stages of the dollar going down. The only saving grace for the dollar is that its compared to other fiat from countries who will suffer the same economic burdens.

Toss health care,  food stamps and student loans into the mix and who has the solution? Certainly not those sleazy, pear shaped elected officials in Washington. The only way out of this is a total reset of real resources and assets to a sustainable level. At current levels, we ain’t even close.

You are absolutely correct about business continuing to operate. The good operators with manageable debt will expand and thrive on the bones of their former competitors. My mother tells me (she is still kicking at 98, not so high, but still kicking) that about 25% of the people during the 1930’s did quite well. The trick is to be in that 25%.

rno

FWIW, a mystery trader stands to make $260 million if the VIX goes to 25 in October……

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/a-mystery-investor-has-made-a-262-million-dollar-bet-that-the-stock-market-will-crash-by-october

Philippines’ Duterte warns miners: ‘I will tax you to death’

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-mining-idUSKBN1A90XD

FBI Seized Crushed Hard Drives From Home Of Wasserman-Schultz’ IT Aide

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-24/fbi-seized-crushed-hard-drives-home-wasserman-schultz-it-aide

After Richard’s postings this morning, inside selling & VXX at new lows, it sure made me want to load up on some market shorts.

I agree with your synopsis of letting the markets fail last. My own brain is telling me the markets are so over bought, there is no way they are getting out of the 3rd qtr without taking a major hit first. It has already defied the old truism of “sell in May and go away.”

Anxious to see how the markets read Fed Speak this week. Might give us a clue for when to pile up on those market shorts.

I get nervous when all the stars align themselves to my trades. 🙂

Just counting on the banksters to do their monthly purge. So far, the phiz putting up a fight. And you are right, so far, JDST outperforming the DSLV.

Place your bet and watch the wheel go round and round. See where it stops on Thursday.

Never seen them so controlled….metal is climbing daily…massive TA breakouts are here…so scum just sit on any rally.

Agree on rates…who will the Fed sell to…TA is looking OK for higher rates.

No favourite Ultra Bear SM ETF….and not keen on selling SM yet. Reckon they will let that go last, as that is the Ubber signal of how well they are doing.

Gold could fly, dollar can fall apart…even Bond rates surge…all can happen under radar, some what…but SM collapse wud be front page news.

Cheers