The Great Silver Divergence: A Binary Bet with Very Early Bitcoin-Level Potential!

H/T THE HAPPY HAWAIIAN FOR THE CHART

There is a chart making the rounds in the precious metals community that is so stark, so powerful, that it presents a simple, binary choice. It is a chart that screams opportunity, a divergence so extreme that it cannot last.

The resolution of this divergence will either see the price of silver collapse, or it will unleash a rally in the silver mining stocks that will be incredibly powerful.

Take a close look at the chart above. The blue line is the price of silver in 2025, which has been in a powerful uptrend, recently breaking out to new highs above $59. The red line is the ratio of the junior silver miners ETF (SILJ) to the price of silver.

As you can see, for most of the year, they moved in tandem. But over the last month, a massive divergence has opened up. As silver has soared, the miners have fallen off a cliff relative to the metal.

This presents us with a simple, binary bet:

1. Either the price of silver is about to collapse, proving the miners were right.
2. Or the silver miners are extremely undervalued, and a violent catch-up rally is imminent.

So, which is it? Are you willing to bet that silver will significantly fall in the current environment?

Let’s Dig Into The Following:

1. The overwhelming case for a silver super-spike! The monetary demand from investors recognizing the undervaluation squeezes the same finite supply that industrial and strategic players desperately need. This is a perfect storm where silver’s ancient role as money is colliding with its modern role as an irreplaceable industrial commodity.
2. Why Even $100+ Silver Won’t Bring a Supply Flood! 70-80% of silver produced is a byproduct of mining other minerals such as lead, copper, zinc, nickel and gold. This means that the supply of silver is not primarily driven by the price of silver, but by the global demand for these other metals. This creates a rare and powerful structural inelasticity that almost no other commodity faces.
3. Why are the silver miners being ignored? Many investors were burned by the brutal 2011-2020 bear market in precious metals and are suffering from recency bias, unable to believe that this time is different. They see the miners as toxic, perpetually underperforming assets, and are selling every rally, blinded by the past instead of focusing on the future.
4. The early bitcoin parallel! The asymmetric opportunity presenting itself today in the silver miners feels incredibly similar to the early Bitcoin days. The skepticism is rampant. The undervaluation is extreme. The fundamental case is undeniable.
5. The inevitable re-rating of these silver mining stocks! If you believe, as the evidence overwhelmingly suggests, that silver is going higher, then the conclusion is inescapable: the silver miners are on the verge of a re-rating that will be unlike anything the majority of investors have ever experienced. …

Barrick Seeks to Spin-Off US Operations, Hits 13 Year Highs on News

GFN – NEW YORK: Barrick Mining is exploring an IPO of its North American gold assets, a move that could value the unit near $60 billion as the company restructures following operational setbacks and management turnover.

Barrick is exploring an IPO of its North American gold assets, potentially valuing the unit near $60–62 billion while retaining majority control.

Shares hit a 13-year high as the move follows activist pressure, management changes, and a broader restructuring push.

The strategy separates high-quality Nevada assets from higher-risk global operations, with analysts noting possible M&A interest from Newmont.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-12-02/barrick-seeks-spin-us-operations-hits-13-year-highs-news

Nice to be on the right side of an investment that doesn’t want to die for a change. Just like tech.

Dollar and rates falling. ADP report in a few minutes, jobs report on Friday.

The most important Fed meeting ever next week – just like all the rest of the Fed meetings.

was supposed to be down to a cooling issue….well they have a full back up operation…how come that wasn’t used !!!!! and the outside temp was minus…so they could have pumped cool air in, which apparently is common in places like Chicago, that are often cold.

Needless to say the story stinks….

Many years back Credit Lyonais , otherwise know as Debit Lyonais, was involved in a major court case, for dodgy dealing….until one weekend the sad news came out that there Paris HQ had had, a bad fire and all the records for the case were burnt !!!

Then someone pointed out they had a warehouse, full of back up records…guess what happened the next weekend…yup you got it…..the ware house self combusted.

Northern Sky charters
https://www.railpictures.net/photo/890392/
https://www.railpictures.net/photo/890391/

Re explaining male-female electrical and pipe connectors ……for anyone in gender studies they would have to learn which is which and put a le or a la in front of it.

is advice that we’re seeing more and more. There’s a new one on ZH about the need for 500,000 engineers to build and run nuclear power stations and stuff by 2030 for the AI boom. Setting aside the fact that it will take three years minimum to train an engineer to complete newbie standard, it is impossible anyway because those with the weird GS and LGBTQRSTU ‘degrees’ are not capable of getting even a conventional non-productive degree in history, or English, or geography. They are incapable of thinking, or working. They rely on grade fixes to pass anyway. It is conceptually ridiculous to consider that with a few years study and training they could operate anything more than a screwdriver by 2030. Even then half of them will be offended by the term screw-driver (bound to be a white, male, heterosexual privileged term), and as for explaining male-female electrical and pipe connectors ……

60.00 has been hit in Shanghai tonight… looks like we’re gonna be having a lot of first time things going forward…

Fake as. And he simply doesn’t talk about this stuff.

Who’s going to talk about anything so paltry as silver when it doesn’t matter to you, there’s no fun in it, and you’re dreaming about trips to Mars, global phone/internet from space etc.

https://rumble.com/v72h4b6-trumps-fbi-destroys-zelenskys-top-aide-while-war-party-steals-billions.html

Prior administrations let it go on too long and now we know why, the CIA was involved getting their cut. All and all it was empowering  to many of the wrong people both here and there for way too long.  It’s no accident they keep messing things up for the economy over and  over again. Maybe afraid they’ll come after them. Maybe their time is here or getting close.

Now here comes the no surprise theft of billions of our dollars they alleged was war money

re ~Musk and silver

That is almost certainly AI generated…..Musk does not talk that fluently ….he pauses and stutters far more.

I read someplace that the price of cocaine is up 30 to 40% in the US. I guess they’re having an effect

Probably getting tough to get volunteers for those drug boats!

I don’t understand why they’re shooting at people in the water either when they’re no longer a threat. It looks more like eliminating the help and sending a message to anyone who wants to apply. Why not pick them up and get information. If it’s strictly drugs they’re doing this for they have other ways to get things across including abused like having poor people or trafficking them to traffic,  swallow balloons with it and travel across and who knows what else they’ll come up with.

“But a couple of Venezuelan fisherman, clutching a shredded boat with no shelter from the sun, less so, IMO.”

Roger that!

“Silver Soars as CME Freezes Trading — What Really Happened?” | ELON MUSK’S SHOCKING ANALYSIS.

After all, that’s why they sank the troop ships in the first place, to stop them reaching the island. Maybe it would have been PC to let them reach land first, and then gun them down … war is a nasty thing.

But a couple of Venezuelan fisherman, clutching a shredded boat with no shelter from the sun, less so, IMO.

Especially the 1980 peaks for G&S. Looking at those spikes it seems clear that there were special factors in play. It would be like looking at the share price of VW after the massive short squeeze and using that as a benchmark for what we should expect it to get back to. Three times galactic GDP, or something. Things have changed so much in 45 years that looking back to a point in time when the US Treasury still had billions of ounces of silver seems irrational. They supposedly finally ran out sometime in the naughties, at which point the POS was expected to explode ….

Industrial uses for silver have changed enormously too. Pre 2000 48% was used in photography (inc. x-rays) and was easily recyclable. Now the biggest uses are in solar panels and for military and space purposes, and recycling is impossible.

I checked out a couple of other commodities for price inflation. Since 1939 potatoes have increased in price faster than inflation, butter less than. The charts for both show wild swings, but I don’t think anyone would put a price target on either based on their 1953 or 1946 spikes respectively.

Just my thoughts. I reckon silver has a long way to go yet but as in all things constant vigilance is important. Just as substitutes (which were considered by the bulls to be totally impossible) for many REE in electronics and glass making collapsed REE prices in the naughties/early teens, a substitute for Ag in solar panels would do the same. And as the price goes higher, the incentive is greater, and there are several projects under way involving copper or graphite.  Which does not detract from silver’s monetary characteristics, but substitution would have to put a drag on price rises.

Tks for the Silver target…….a number of TA people have used the Cup and Saucer to predict $ 4 to 600

I think though you measure a Cup and Saucer by measuring the base, ideally off a Point and Figure chart….but no-one has the data to build them properly over 40 plus years, as you need the intra day data, to build a proper P&F chart….so it really is guess work…but u can say 40 years has to project miles up.

I know there were exceptions, such as during the battle of Guadalcanal when Japanese transport ships were sank close to the island and the US aviators were told to machine gun the soldiers who were in the water … because they were close enough to swim to the island where they’d be added to the force there.

Surprised me when I read it but I guess it makes some sort of sense.

This was a first hand account … I never saw this info anywhere else.

Good for the people who didn’t get jabbed! They dodged a bullet. I know the pressure on people in Australia to get the jab was intense!

“a particularly reactionary bunch at the last place we stayed – I don’t think we would have got in if we’d been jabbed!”

LOL … as it should be …

https://www.iflos.org/wp-content/uploads/Presenation-Tomas-Heidar-1.pdf

The same rules apply during war, too. If you had just sunk a Japanese ship, you were obligated to pick up survivors, if you could do so without risk to your own ship; it was fine to high tail it away if you thought that there were patrolling submarines or a bunch of torpedo bombers on their way, otherwise stop and collect.

If this guy is right Silver will peak at $600/oz. Maybe even $700, to match the 1980 high of $50/oz.

He’s wrong. Back in 1980 a $1,000 face value of junk silver coins was up to $35,000, ($49/oz) enough to buy a typical house. They ranged from $25,000 to $40,000.

So today at $600k to $700k, per home, a $1000 bag would have to go to $600k or $700K to buy a house. There are 715 ozs of silver in a $1000 bag. Which means $979/oz in todays money adjusted for home inflation.

If someone has already posted this , my apologies « OASIS FORUM