It’s not me, it’s the force of the Universe, now moving in our direction! 🙂
silverngold
I thought it WAS pretty simple … 🙂
Sng when it comes to fashion or shoes you might have to ask a woman
Ipso post on Nike is satire filled with metaphors. Comparing it to a failed marriage. Changing from shelf space like Footlocker to online. Using pop culture tactics like American Eagle and Sydney Sweeney Moving away from sports to say woke. They’re grabbing up the newly popular female basket ball favorites I see like Caitlin Clark a amazing player making the hood rats jealous and attacking her and her teammate that has Clarks back doing well at least.
Maddog, Ipso
Maddog – not getting any help from the dollar. Looks like they are trying to tie the metals to the SM, but the shares look good, so maybe we get a makeup move tomorrow.
Ipso – I made a watchlist of those silver plays you posted over the weekend, almost every one of them is higher today. Can you do that everyday please?😇
ipso facto @ 10:39 …Take me to your leader….I only unnastan SNG in which I have a permanent relationship… Comprende-vo?
K.I.S.S. please!
If Nike feels the need to champion every left wing cause from BLM onwards then they can go to blazes
Lee Roach
@leevalueroach
·
10h
My wife left me today. She said “it’s the Nike thing.” I said Nike is a $100 billion brand that fired its own retailers and got out-run by a Swiss company named after a preposition, and the only person on Earth who can save it is Sydney Sweeney in a swoosh, and she said “I’m taking the Hokas.”
Let me explain to you what I was trying to explain to her.
In 2020 Nike hired a software guy. Software guy looks at fifty years of owning every wall in every Foot Locker in America and says “what if we sold shoes like Salesforce.” They called it Consumer Direct Acceleration. Nike fired Foot Locker. Fired DSW. Fired Macy’s. Fired the guy at the mall who’s been lacing Air Maxes since Reagan. And that guy didn’t die. He just put Hoka on the wall.
She said “you don’t even run.” I said NOBODY WHO BUYS HOKAS RUNS, THAT’S THE ENTIRE BUSINESS MODEL, and she started packing.
Here’s what the software guy didn’t understand. Wholesale isn’t a channel. Wholesale is shelf space. Shelf space is real estate. You don’t abandon real estate in a mall. You abandon it TO SOMEONE. Nike left the wall and On, New Balance, and a running shoe that looks like a Wi-Fi symbol moved in. Nike’s app pushed me a meditation playlist. The brand that told me to Just Do It now wants me to Just Log In.
Also the ads became TED talks. Every spot was a journey. Nobody wants a journey from a shoe. A shoe has one job: make me feel like I could beat someone. Nike replaced “beat someone” with “reflect.” Ask the stock how reflection went. It lost more than half its value from the 2021 high and the new CEO is now crawling back to Foot Locker like a guy who left his wife for a startup and the startup was an app.
She said “that’s you. That’s literally what you’re doing right now.” I said I’m not crawling, I’m explaining the setup.
THE SETUP. American Eagle put Sydney Sweeney in jeans, made one pun, and the stock ripped like a meme coin in a mall. That is the entire trade. Nike doesn’t need a Vision. Nike doesn’t need a Transition Year. Nike needs 30 seconds, Sydney Sweeney, one bad pun about a swoosh, and every man in America aged 25 to 50 with a Robinhood account will personally rebuild the Foot Locker wall with his hands.
Until then it goes lower. Every “reset.” Every “we’re encouraged by early signs.” Every earnings call is another Hoka on a shelf that used to be a Nike.
She said “I hope Sydney Sweeney is worth it.” I said she’s worth roughly 400 basis points of shelf share at Dick’s and she closed the door.
Anyway I’ve got a Foot Locker floor plan from 2016 taped above the bed, a pair of Pegasus 36s I’m not allowed to retire until the stock reclaims its highs, and nobody left to explain it to.
So it’s you now. Buckle up. Sydney, if you’re reading this, the swoosh needs you. So do I.
Gold and silver down a bit, but the shares up OK
Fingers crossed
Anyone with wealth should flee
Europe’s Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction
Looks like we have old scum tricks at work…hitting PM’s right in front of Crimex open
and it looks like $ 4400 is being defended….my guess is we have some big shorts caught.
Morning Maddog
Let’s hope for a repeat performance. It almost seems likely, especially if we can get some strength behind the metals.
No excitement yet today as the Epstein class rolls back into town, but lots of questions about whether they’ll be buying or selling.
My gut says this September will be one for the history books, whether in the markets or the world, or both.
23:55 That explains why gold seems to be doing better than silver right now.
Silver is going to be making a spring board for post election provided the Fed doesn’t lay the hammer down.
Not to throw caution to the wind from the invisible forces but except the Fed sounds pretty bullish Does Xau and Hui go up during midterms?
Historically, the HUI and XAU indices tend to go up during midterm election years, making midterms the strongest period of the four-year presidential cycle for gold mining equities. [1, 2]
However, their specific seasonal behaviors split slightly: the HUI tends to hit its peak strength directly during the midterm election year, whereas the XAU often sees its strongest momentum carry into the post-election year.
Overview of Midterm Trends
Precious metals and gold stocks broadly interact with the political business cycle differently than the general stock market:
| Index / Asset | Performance Trend During Midterm Election Years |
|---|---|
| HUI Index (NYSE Arca Gold Bugs) | Strongest year of the cycle. Highly reactive to rising political uncertainty and market volatility. |
| XAU Index (Philadelphia Gold & Silver) | Upward trend, but historically behaves as a precursor to even stronger gains in the following post-election year. |
| Gold Bullion | Strongest year of the cycle, averaging an 11% to 12.5% return since 1968, heavily driven by an upward rally that begins in July. |
| S&P 500 / General Equities | Muted or negative through the first 3 quarters due to policy uncertainty, followed by a sharp post-election rally. |
Why Gold Stocks Gain Ground
The primary driver behind the upward movement of the HUI and XAU indices during midterms is investor risk aversion. Historical analysis of the Presidential Election Cycle notes that broader equity markets typically face high volatility and choppy, sideways action in the months leading up to a midterm vote. [1, 2, 3]
As geopolitical and domestic policy uncertainties peak, investors seek out safe havens. This dynamic regularly pushes gold prices higher—particularly in the second half of the midterm year—which serves as a major fundamental tailwind that expands profit margins and lifts the stock prices of the gold miners tracking the HUI and XAU. [1, 2]
Ameriprise Financial
What to expect from markets during a midterm election year
Apr 1, 2026 — 1. Stocks tend to deliver lower returns during midterm election years. As investors grapple with political uncertainty and the future makeup of Congress, the st…
J.P. Morgan
How do markets perform in midterm election years? | J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Jul 8, 2026 — According to some sources, midterm years tend to be more volatile with lower returns. However, the full story is more complicated. On average, returns in midter…
Capital Group
How U.S. midterm elections may affect markets – Capital Group
Apr 17, 2026 — History suggests lower returns and higher volatility. Capital Group examined more than 90 years of data and found that markets tend to behave differently during…
CME Group
What Happens When the January Effect Meets Midterm Elections?
Jan 20, 2026 — Midterm Elections: A Different Pattern Emerges While the January Effect’s influence has faded, the cycle of midterm election years introduces a distinct set of …
Interactive Brokers
The Midterm-Year Rally in Gold | Traders’ Insight – Interactive Brokers
Jul 23, 2026 — Gold, typical course of the midterm election years, 1968 to 2026. Chart of the typical seasonal trend of gold in midterm election years from 1968 to 2026 Things…
Interactive Brokers
The 4-Year Cycle: Will Gold Rise Even Further? – Interactive Brokers
Feb 4, 2026 — The 4-year cycle influences the markets. The phenomenon known as the 4-year cycle affects not only the stock markets, but also other markets such as the gold ma…
GoldPriceForecast.com
Presidential Election Cycle – Gold Price Forecast
Gold performs the strongest in the midterm election year and the weakest in the post-election year while for silver, the pre-election year is the best year, and…
Seasonax
The Midterm-Year Rally in Gold – Seasonax
Jul 21, 2026 — Since 1968, gold has followed a clear four-year cycle: midterm election years like 2026 lead the way with an average return of 11.09%.
goldinvest.de
Gold Price Forecast 2026 – Benefiting from Midterm Election …
Nov 26, 2025 — Gold Price Forecast 2026 – Benefiting from Midterm Election Years. Chief Market Analyst Christian Henke, IG. The gold price could continue to shine in the comin…
buygold
We had one in Dec 24 to May 25……the ratio ran to Feb 26….. Hui more than doubled
Maddog
I like that “w” pattern on the GDX/GLD chart. Looks like you may be on to something there.
Buy/sell signal in relationship of 50 day and 200 day av’s
When the 50 day dips below the 200 day, for only a short while and then climbs back above, especially when the 200 is already climbing, can be a very strong buy signal, that can last for months. When the reverse happens u get sell signals
Here the Hui/Au relationship has done just that…for a buy signal
Maddog
Good charts and good thinking thanks.
Hui to spank AI !!!!!!!
the ratio has formed a large base on top of the previous low back in 2000….the base say we can easily rally back to the 0.16 area, currently @ 0.28 which is 6 times current values …..if we get back to the highs, then says the ratio goes up @ 10 times from here.
Meanwhile the Hui/SPX chart shows PM shares as the place to be relative to the SPX, for the next few years or more
A clear break of the top line, with a point perfect back test……one for the records in perfection so far.
Oh so close…..
Depending on how u draw the line or as they said in ancient times, depending on how thick your pencil was , we have yet to really break out in the GDX/GLD ratio….which explains why the shares still seem sluggish, relative to any PM rally, we are still not seeing the multiples of any PM rally in the shares and the Algo shorts are still happy…ie this rally is just another opportunity to add.
Though GDX.Au does now suggest the break out is real
Wheras Hui/AU, has broken and backtested the trend line …which says we should soon be running.
Yield Curve I found this interesting.
Were hearing a lot about possible recession coming. 12 to 18 months after the un- inversion time line to late 26 to mid 27.
I found this.
Timeline Details
-
- Average Lag: Historical studies tracking the normalization (steepening) of the curve show that downturns typically begin within 7 months of the un-inversion. [1]
- Range: The time gap between the curve turning positive again and the start of a recession has historically ranged from as short as 2 months (such as prior to the 2001 recession) to as long as 14 months (before the 1990 downturn). [1]
- Initial Inversion vs. Reversion: While market watchers often cite a 12 to 15 month average lag measured from the start of the original inversion, looking at the subsequent un-inversion often signals a tighter window for near-term economic stress.
Further I found with the S&P can remain profitable at first slowing during later months in one year and a down turn in another.
The S&P 500 historically shows short-term resilience immediately following a yield curve un-inversion, but often experiences mid-to-long-term underperformance as the economy edges closer to a recession. While a yield curve inversion acts as a long-term warning radar, the un-inversion process (when the spread between long- and short-term yields shifts back above 0%) is historically the real “countdown clock” for economic shifts. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Historical data on the S&P 500’s average performance following an un-inversion reveals a distinct timeline: [1]
🕒 S&P 500 Performance Timeline After Un-Inversion
- 3 Months Later: +4.9% average return. The index has historically been positive in 80% of studied cycles during this immediate 90-day window, demonstrating a brief “last gasp” or relief rally.
- 6 Months Later: +2.2% average return. Momentum begins to stall significantly as macro pressures mount.
⚖️ The Underlying Economic Reality
The primary reason the un-inversion period triggers a slower market environment is its strong historical correlation with the onset of recessions. [1]
- The Recession Lag: Historically, a recession begins an average of 7 months after the yield curve un-inverts.
- Historical Extremes: Performance can vary wildly depending on whether the economy achieves a “soft landing” or enters a severe crisis. For example, the S&P 500 posted a massive +23.1% 12-month gain following the 1980 un-inversion cycle, but suffered a steep -17.3% drop over the 12 months following the 2001 un-inversion as the dot-com bubble unraveled. [1, 2]
papertradingjournal.com
Jun 11, 2026 — The average time from yield curve un-inversion to recession was 7 months. The longest lag between un-inversion and recession was 14 months before the 1990 reces…
Barron’s
Sep 4, 2024 — Among the six instances over that period, the index gained four times, each time by a double-digit percentage. … There were two instances of losses. One of th…
Northwestern Mutual
Apr 15, 2022 — share Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Share via Email. The trickle of headlines about a yield curve inversion has turned into a steady stream of …
11m
Aug 14, 2019 — 30, 2005. The market posted a cumulative gain of 18.4% in the 18 months thereafter, but returned intensifying losses after 1½ years. Echoing Golub’s analysis, B…
5:55
Apr 27, 2025 — Key Takeaways * A yield curve illustrates the interest rates on bonds of increasing maturities. * An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term debt instrument…
Yahoo Finance
Apr 12, 2023 — Yield Curve Inversions–Past and Present … Typically, the shorter the time to maturity, the lower the yield. … The table below shows why an inverted yield c…
YouTube·Ryan O’Connell, CFA, FRM
5:02
StocksBNB
Oct 2, 2023 — It has been over a year since the yield curve for US treasuries became inverted, where the short-term 2 Year treasury yield is higher than the long term 10-Year…
Catherine A F
More insight of the stable coins. First part explains what they’re up to and it’s no good in a callous way like how they profit over pandemics and about 8:50 minutes near the end how stable coins surveillance can nose itself into private accounts. Those in other countries should see this, it could affect them too.