Loading ...That ‘hole’ metaphor applies to much else around us too. A recent piece from monopoly/oligopoly guru Matt Stoller addresses both the ongoing calamity in Afghanistan and the broader failings of the US economy. Stoller recommends watching the Netflix black comedy ‘War Machine’ to grasp what went wrong, noting: “the war in Afghanistan is like seeing management consultants come to your badly managed software company where everyone knows the problem is the boss’s indecisiveness and cowardice, except it’s violent and people die… None of these tens of thousands of Ivy League encrusted PR savvy highly credentialed prestigious people actually know how to do anything useful. They can write books on leadership, or do powerpoints, or leak stories, but the hard logistics of actually using resources to achieve something important are foreign to them, masked by unlimited budgets and public relations.” (Ironically, I didn’t watch War Machine because I usually suspect Netflix original productions of the same management sins.)
Stoller concludes that the post-WW2 US was a true logistical powerhouse: but today, Wall Street listens to crypto burblers and Fed Chairs who have never been to a port telling them supply chain issues will soon be resolved, as generals and the intelligence community tells us wars are being won as profiteers laugh all the way to the bank.
As a result, one can hardly avoid the “Is this ‘Suez’ for the US?” thought-pieces flooding our screens – which will really matters for markets if they are right. On which note, here are a smattering of geopolitical developments to note reflecting the deep hole the US has dug for itself with a Grand Strategy thought out via PowerPoint and buzzword bingo from the Hamptons by K-Street and Wall Street:
* The Washington Post reports the US *chose* to hand over Kabul to the Taliban, creating recent terrible scenes at the airport, when the latter had offered to let the US keep control of it. The US now states that it believes it has “substantial leverage” to ensure the thousands of US (and Western) passport and visa holders left behind are free to leave as they wish;
* The US is back to drone strikes in Afghanistan that apparently kill innocent children rather than guilty (unnamed) terrorists. Of course, the US can also collapse the Afghan economy by freezing its FX reserves – which will necessitate the country turning to another currency entirely;
* The UK Telegraph says President Biden “holds grudges” and will punish Britain for its Afghanistan criticism and “comments about his mental acuity”. In which case, he should read the French press too;
* President Macron of France says his troops will be staying on in Iraq regardless of what the US now does, which is an echo of older, more expensive and expansive French foreign policy;
* The EU has been prompted into the painful realisation that it needs its own defence, seeing Biden perhaps achieve what Trump could not – though it does not yet grasp that the true sum required is in the trillions if it wants to do the job properly;
* The Aussie financial press –and others in Asia– are openly discussing what national long-run defence and foreign policy orientation should now be, echoing the huge post-WW2 pivot from the British to the US umbrella. Again, this sound uncomfortable and expensive;
* Japan is openly talking defence with Taiwan, which China warns “may backfire”;
* China has declared all vessels entering its claimed nine-dash line territorial waters must declare themselves to its Maritime Administration starting September 1 or they will be “dealt with”
* North Korea appears to be restarting its nuclear reactor / weapons production site;
* Iran-backed Houthis killed 30 Yemeni soldiers in an attack right after President Biden declared to the Prime Minister of Israel that Tehran will never be allowed to get nukes, and as the US is allegedly now believes Iran may not return to the 2015 JCPOA deal;
* The Russian press reports President Erdogan of NATO member Turkey stating: “We have no hesitations about the purchase of a second batch of S-400s from Russia. Turkey and Russia are taking a lot of steps, whether it be with S-400s or other areas in the defense industry”; and
* Algeria is moving towards a $7bn arms deal with Russia, not the US, as Nigeria agrees to defence cooperation and a “landmark development in bilateral relations” with Moscow.
For those who don’t like to draw the political into the economic or markets even after Afghanistan being the front page in the financial press for days, we could discuss the latest socio-economic developments in Asia instead. How about the introduction of ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ to the curriculum at all schools throughout China, and the potential long-run economic ramifications therein? Or that, as Bloomberg puts it, “China to Cleanse Online Content that ‘Bad Mouths’ its Economy”?
We are collectively in a deep hole. The key issue now is who has the flexibility to be able to stop digging – or at least to be able to ‘Dig for Victory’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/while-jackson-hole-fed-no-way-indicated-it-about-stop-digging