Loading ...ZH READERS——Difficult to see the forest from the trees when your deep in the woods.
I would submit we are already in the beginning stages of a massive crash – insane assets valuations, commodities all over the board, price volitility to extents in a day that would have been considered front page banner headlines years ago, Great Depression era levels of unemployment, collasping industrial base, shortages, a completely deracinated population so dumbed down they can’t put on velcro slippers.
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No, we are there. Just the veneer of the old reality lingering around.
I’ve seen this story before. Housing and stock markets skyrocket, and the currency plummets. Last seen in Venezuela. I even recall when everyone in Venezuela was buying a house and then one day everyone stopped buying houses. Then a few months later everyone wants to sell their houses but don’t want the local currency – Bolivars. Looks like the U.S. is on the same path. What no one tells you about hyperinflation is that you get a deflationary depression in the real economy while the currency is hyperinflating. Sounds very counter-intuitive but you have to realize the real economy is collapsing while the currency is hyperinflating. Then you start getting scarcity and all sorts of scary shit going down.
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I smell a crash. In everything. Too many people on the same side of the inflation boat trade. And this pains me because I’m greedy and well positioned for the inflation trade, which I’ve been waiting for for several years. 30% of me is worried that they are trying to scare me out of my inflation trade. The best I can come up with is sell 1/3 of the inflation trade positions. If I weren’t so greedy, half.
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Every single time I’ve bet on a crash in the last 10 years I’ve been wrong. I did a lot of bottom feeding on the COVID crash and made out like a bandit against my better judgment. So I’m gun shy on my crash instincts.
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Some bets, like precious metals, do fine in both atmospheres, but definitely for an inflationary bet for wealth preservation, miners are also a bet for inflation but still do great in market crashes. It’s not hard to be on both sides of the same failure of the markets bet. Inflation or crash is really what my bets are. We could have inflation that sees the markets continue to go massively higher and simply have currency creation create a crack up boom. Real value is not gaining as fast as inflation, but the markets don’t go down, however real value is plummeting with simultaneous growth. Hyperinflationary trend. My active bets of the market crashing are relatively small compared to my inflation bets. It’s not one wins and the other loses, it’s only if things actually start to look up that my bets go sideways.