Loading ...[I think gold will breeze thru the rate cut asnd the jobs report and end Friday in new high ground-I will ignore the rsi’s and COTs for now]
The obvious bullish set up, with a rate cut confirmation that would probably indicate several more to come and the peak of the tightening cycle, suggests that the metals should do very well going forward. But I am in your camp on this one, and history tells us that the Cartel never lets an obvious bullish move play out.
My gut is telling me to brace for a nasty surprise slam on the metals, and then with NFP on deck right after, a follow through to end the week. Yeah, I know all the bullish reasons why gold and silver should both rocket higher. But the paper metal is unrestrained and will dictate the short term. We get a slam first and then a rapid rebound after, to new highs for this cycle into the fall.
If I am correct that a few of the shorts are running for cover the last few days, that is just one more reason why the Cartel would act decisively here. The prospect of a limited short squeeze is too dangerous with implications to enable a full mania to develop. I would love to see this happen, but I do not see the Cartel losing control now, with the threat of a rate cut clearly communicated to the market.
I suspect the inventory of bullion is running thin and that may be the silver lining that prevents a severe selloff if the crooks roll out the bazooka. A sharp contraction in the open interest and a rapid rebound after a slam is probably how this week plays out from here. Of course, from a technical perspective, if the metals tag support and bounce, plus the constructive action of a few days of consolidation, it should build an even more bullish case for the fall.
I have some stink bids open for a few bargains if I can get them. I would love to see a melt up develop but I am looking for a nasty move lower to end the month and then hopefully we get some room to run.
Cheers!
MM
From Murph tonigh–this shows how traumatized traders still are by the 8 yr bear mkt. in gold
No Comments
No comments yet.
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.