Loading ...If the EU starts penalizing the NG importers their imports will fall off a cliff. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!
Glad his family is safe. I’m not sure of his location but it was certainly hard hit by the quake.
Mark
@Mark_IKN
·
9h
Interior of our building, this morning. We slept in the car park. Our crazy good fortune began to sink in while taking this footage. Walked out with just a few scratches, kids untouched. Their mother was a hero.
Rough week
PM’s up a little, everything else down? Even the dollar is down a smidge.
Can’t imagine that will last.
GDX bounced where it had to, pretty weak bounce though. Lose 15% in 3 days, gain back 1%. Maybe it will hold.
Silver
Looks like it’s formed a hammer if it holds. Means a sign of a reversal or bottom but needs confirmation.
Gold silver ratio by 2030 AI
.
Analysts project the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) to compress from the mid-60s to between 40:1 and 55:1 by 2030. This historical mean reversion will be driven by gold prices potentially reaching $7,000 to $8,000 per ounce, while silver outpaces it to hit between $100 and $175 per ounce.
Long-term projections leading up to 2030 are categorized by the following macroeconomic drivers and market scenarios:
Key Forecast Scenarios
- Consensus Target (40:1 – 50:1): Models from institutions like Incrementum and ByteTree forecast gold prices to top $7,000/oz. Because silver acts as an industrial metal and a monetary hedge, sustained supply deficits are projected to push silver to $140 – $175/oz, causing the GSR to fall significantly.
- Conservative Scenario (55:1 – 60:1): Analysts like those at BMO warn that if green energy and solar sector demand slows or if silver faces physical surpluses, silver could underperform gold. In this scenario, the ratio remains closer to the long-term, post-gold-standard average of around 54:1 to 60:1.
- Bull Run / Overshoot (Below 40:1): In periods of heavy monetary devaluation or a supply shock in green energy tech (e.g., in solar or solid-state batteries), silver could see triple-digit rallies, which would cause the ratio to compress below 40:1.
-
Core Market Drivers
- Structural Supply Deficits: The Silver Institute projects that global silver demand will continue to outpace new mine supply. Mine supply is expected to remain flat, setting up structural deficits that heavily favor silver’s appreciation.
- Industrial Demand: Silver consumption is underpinned by green technology, specifically photovoltaics (solar panels) and electric vehicles. New use-cases in AI infrastructure and solid-state batteries are expected to consume over 100Moz annually by 2030.
- Monetary Policy: Gold and silver remain sensitive to interest rates and dollar strength. If the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, the resulting dollar weakness is a primary catalyst that historically causes the GSR to compress
I asked Ai if the silver shortages were fake..
The 2026 silver shortage was a real structural deficit, not a fake scare. Mining output did not instantly increase because roughly \(70\%\) of silver is extracted as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining. The structural squeeze was heavily exacerbated by China implementing strict export controls starting January 1, 2026, which effectively restricted the outflow of Chinese-refined silver to global markets. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The 2026 Supply & Demand Reality
Despite some thrifting and substitution in the solar (photovoltaic) sector, the silver market is tracking a sixth consecutive annual deficit (projected at roughly \(46.3\) million ounces). A single massive short-squeeze in early 2026 sent silver prices to an all-time nominal high of \(\$121.64\) per ounce before profit-taking and margin adjustments corrected spot prices to around \(\$56\) to \(\$58\). However, physical supply at the institutional and retail levels remains exceptionally tight. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Silver Price Outlook for 2030
- Irreversible Industrial Consumption: Silver is permanently consumed by high-growth industries like artificial intelligence infrastructure, EV manufacturing, advanced electronics, and the ongoing rollout of 5G. [1, 2]
- Inelastic Supply: Because global silver production depends heavily on base metal prices and features long lead times (5–10 years) for new primary mines, supply cannot rapidly scale up to meet this demand. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- Strategic Metal Reclassification: China’s reclassification of silver as a strategic material has severely tightened global supply lines, forcing the U.S. and other nations to treat physical metal as a critical resource. [1, 2]
What are they preparing for?
Pentagons one focus doesn’t help.
The main point is not that China suddenly has a new weapon everyone can identify. It is that the ground around its nuclear silos is changing quickly, and that change fits a wider buildup the Pentagon says could leave China with more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
Ferrett
You can treat the injured without reporting but if you don’t address the needs of the injured or denying more medical support prior to this happening especially when there was a eminent threat is another. It’s a two edge sword, it also commands concern from their own. I think they were more ” concerned” about their people being concerned for their own. The enemy tends to find out by themselves or lie about the number of casualties they caused vs their own anyways.
Well, yeah, but that’s war, innit?
You don’t tell the enemy how successful they’ve been. Like the Gerry Ford boat incident was downplayed:
Two US soldiers seriously wounded during the war accused the Pentagon of down playing their injuries.
Soldiers wounded during the Iran war accuse Pentagon of downplaying their injuries Source: The Independent
https://share.newsbreak.com/
Last November Strategy owned 641,692 BTC worth $65bn.
Now it owns 847,363 worth $51bn. Share price now at market value of the BTC.
Meanwhile, all my ounces still seem to be there. But then, I guess all the noughts and ones are still there too. Just more noughts than there used to be, I suppose ….
I can see why people go for a gold ETF as it means they can trade it as easily as they can shares, trusting that the underlying asset is actually held in a vault somewhere. It’s convenient and saves them having to think too much. But I can’t understand why someone would buy shares in a company that exists to buy digital assets that sit in a wallet/trading exchange when you could equally easily buy the digital assets the same way.
Seems the Hoft article might be right
Almost seems there are different factions controlling different areas, not a coordinated negotiation.
Is IRGC devolving into clans? Dangerous ones if so.
Mr Copper
Lol The sandbox. Don’t bet on it. When they seen what happens to the goldbugs over and over they’re probably only going to buy later or newbies at the high. If they have no stops they will ride it down but seems to me the majority of the ones who hold the line so to speak to the lows but do not sell them are the goldbugs.
Trouble in River City … I think some patience may run out. We should start blockading Iranian ships once again.
Cargo Vessel Comes Under Apparent Iranian Attack Near Oman, Crude Jumps, After IRGC Warned It Controls Hormuz Strait
Iran tightens control over Hormuz: The IRGC says ships must obtain authorization to transit the strait or face enforcement action.
Shipping disruptions emerge after increased flows: A tanker near Oman was reportedly attacked, and several vessels turned back after Iranian warnings, sending oil prices higher.
Tehran seeks billions in transit fees: Iran wants to impose Hormuz passage charges that it says could generate up to $40 billion annually.
Rubio rejects the plan: The U.S. says Gulf states offer “zero support” for Iranian tolls and warns they would undermine freedom of navigation.
Re Crazy Highs, Leading to Crazy Lows, Which Leads Back To Crazy Highs
In my view re PMs outsiders see the prices rising, and wait too long, and they all barge (with paper GLD SLV contracts ETFs etc) buy in on the highs and drive prices even higher.
Then, no outside buyers left, prices start dropping and they start losing money and all start selling all the nonsense paper crap they bought, selling at the market, and take losses and drive prices too low.
Hopefully they learned a lesson and won’t come into our sand box anymore. Naturally, we will be adding to positions on the lows, as the gamblers are selling out on the lows.
Northern Dynasty
Hearing Federal District Court today
IRGC Mouthpiece … See what happens if they try to stop ships!
The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
·
10h
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC Navy declares the US-backed Omani alternative southern route for the Strait of Hormuz, announced yesterday, “unacceptable and completely dangerous,” asserting that only routes announced by Iran are authorized for passage and warning that “violator vessels will be dealt with.” The statement adds that every ship now attempting to pass through the southern route without coordination will be forced to stop and will be targeted, per Tasnim.
This directly rejects the US-backed Omani framework that tried to bypass Iran’s sovereign control in the Strait of Hormuz by routing traffic along the Musandam Peninsula, with Iran asserting that any navigation outside routes it has announced is “strictly prohibited,” and mandatory coordination via Channel 16 will be required for all passage.
Morning Buygold
“endured an awful lot”
You said a mouthful there brother!
Pray for them.
It looks like those high rises that are still standing are so badly damaged that they will have to be taken down as well.
Morning Ipso
Yes, horrible for those Venezuelans. Praying for them, they’ve endured an awful lot since Maduro.
Unfortunately, those earthquakes are just birth pains. Nothing like what is coming over the next 7 or so years IMHO.
Looks like Gaza
Thomas van Linge
@ThomasVLinge
·
11h
Venezuela 🇻🇪: footage from one of the main boulevards of La Guaira after the earthquake.
Almost every building collapsed.