Looks like the long gold, short other metals spread is active today. This usually indicates a strong move ahead. Margins are usually less allowing huge positions.
Morning Maddog
This is feeling like a “sell the news” day. Dollar is up a percent and rates back to 4%. Shares slipping. It looks like they’re going to sell the SM open. Oil can go up on this but not a flight to safety with gold.
This is how they’ve always done things on war news before.
There’ still a $14 discrepancy between Crimex and Shanghai, I’m not sure how that gets resolved.
I’m guessing your wave count is right as long as we’re contending with the stronger dollar.
Stan’s Hand
Geiger Capital
@Geiger_Capital
Stan Druckenmiller’s current positions:
– LONG Korea + Japan (+ Brazil)
– LONG Copper (AI + tight supply)
– LONG Gold (geopolitics)
– SHORT Bonds
Portfolio is no longer “AI-driven”. He’s bearish on the Dollar but bullish on the US economy with disinflationary growth.
unobtanium
Bai, Xiaojun
@oriental_ghost
According to the China Finance and Economics Association, due to the rapid rise in the prices, many physical gold sales stores across China have stopped selling investment gold bars, and only craft gold bars are sold at ￥1400/g, equivalent to $6329/oz.
TBD
Rand Group
@cryptorand
·
18h
🛢️ OIL CRISIS IMPACT – Hormuz dependency by country:
🇯🇵 Japan: 72%
🇰🇷 South Korea: 65%
🇮🇳 India: 50%
🇨🇳 China: 50%
🇪🇺 Europe (Avg): 18%
🇺🇸 United States: 2%
Buygold
If they want Gold up, then this is a great excuse….but there is a war premium building….it may not fall too far…..TA, has a possible C wave down to come still….seen better on Silver and Plat…
That we are still around/above Hi’s is great…..the Hi’s no longer look like spike Hi’s.
Back to war is good for pm prices
Good for pm shares at the moment too. Shanghai didn’t back off on the pm fix, moved it up to $107.31.
Still not good for the SM, which makes the move higher in the shares that much sweeter. Hopefully they hold up after NY opens.
aufever mentioned the dollar turning up, oil is up 7%, Bitcoin is still up, but only $400 and slowly fading
I hope Iran is getting to the point where they’ve had enough, but I also know Trump said this could go 4 weeks. It’s so early it’s hard to even guess where all this leads.
$5400 is where one of the banks said gold will have trouble, it might have been Goldman. I guess we’ll find out, since we’re sitting right on top of it today.
ferrett
Reckon yr right….The Israeli’s and US have almost if not total air superiority, with maybe hundreds of fighter bombers in the air…as soon as the Iranians launch, if not before they will get hit…they must be very low on launchers by now…if not operators….as by now it must be close to instant death.
One thing I noticed was the huge numbers of Tankers the US brought over, they obviously intend to have huge numbers of aircraft up, so they can hit targets immediately.
Maddog, there was a similar pause earlier.
They’re running out of missiles/drones. Much of the “Israeli” attacks have been aimed at missile launch sites. The elite really need to be looking at their escape options, rather than a noose.
Very early days…..but no missile fireings twds Israel from Iran for over 3 hours…..
they were going up every 5 minutes.
Aramco refinery hit in Saudi and on fire
Saudis say no real damage…but refinery closed and pictures show big fire…it is Saudi’s largest……also attack may have been by Houti’s, not Iran and not clear if Drones or Missile…..
MBS is demanding Stihls latest catalogue to buy a larger chain saw.
Buygold
Re Pakistan
Not sure …..could be Modi sees a chance to spank Pakistan…he hates muzzies…or report maybe over reaction, as they are always facing off on that border.
Kuwait shoots down an F-15 :-(
Pilot ejected and only minor injuries.
Silver, gold, DXY all up
Gold up more than 2.5%, over 5400, and DXY has shot up to the highest it’s been in over a month.
That’s interesting.
Silver 95+
I’m not sure why they are all so upset.
What do they consider the will of Allah to be in this interaction?
I’ve seen a FB post saying the same thing.
Apparently no one is nominating to replace him.
Dangerous Job …………………………… I haven’t seen this confirmed
Wall Street Mav
@WallStreetMav
·
44m
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi was declared earlier today as the acting Supreme Leader of Iran.
He is reportedly already dead this evening.
Good one
By their standards. About a minute.
Sng
Good choice. I remember a sad case up in redding area some guy took 4 kids River rafting. He had them in life jackets but he didn’t make sure they were straped in. Their raft tipped they all went in the water and the kids slipped out of their life jackets. He managed to save two but two drowned.
No Iran news for four hours now.
Maybe it’s all over. Not regime change though. If the mullahs were to let go they’d have to flee to Pakistan, you’d think. Or maybe Iraq. Can’t see the US wanting them in Iraq though.
Interesting
So war is not good for silver in Shanghai as the am fix is $106.37. But apparently it’s good in the overnight paper markets because it can be bought for $92 down a buck according to Kitco.
Get your paper silver while it’s cheap. 🤔
Goldielocks. I was never a good swimmer, but at an early age I learned to relax and tred water when I got tired swimming.
But talking about ocean currents. tides, riptides, or fast flowing rivers and streams, that would usually be pretty much useless. I did lots of lake and stream canoeing and boating and my SOP was never do it without a lifejacket. SNG
Sng
Yes sooner the better but with someone that knows what their doing. With the baby’s going to say get out of a pool to turn on their back and float so they can cry out for help. What to do in rivers and oceans. I rescued one of my younger brothers twice but the one who got sucked into a undertow in the ocean was that scariest but then so could a under current of a river. Like looking for a needle in a hay stack but swam to the place the ocean pulled him under then dived and found him being dragged out of he found me grabbed on. To teach them he was only 9 in rough waves cuz I was setting up a guy who was crashing into surf boards and injuring suffers. So I was diverting him and making him wipe out before he could get to me. My little brother was thinking he’s going to go out to protect me. All it did was allow him to catch up to me till I got back again. It was like the movie The Birds, there were a few Marines watching from a cliff in San Diego. All of a sudden there was like a 100 of them watching us. They got to learn to keep their feet out of the water and swim when it pulls back when rough like that. That and not go out too far.