Loading ...The Success of Socialism in Venezuela
Mike and Jeff show @AgrisAcademy
@AgrisAcademy
My Venezuela experience as head of trading in the region for Cargill.
Cargill was/is the leading producer of critical staple ingredients such as flour, pasta, vegetable oil, and rice in VZ. I am not saying I agree with grabbing the dictator, but I did have a front row seat to the damage a kleptocracy did to innocent people.
1. The government took over our “minute rice” facility at gunpoint because we were “gouging” the nation’s poor. The government was never able to run the plant. It never ran again. It was returned years later with no equipment inside
2. There are 1000’s of generals in the army. They are each given a slice of the economy to loot. The large number of generals made it difficult to organize a coup against the regime.
3. The government opened grocery stores and sold staples below the cost we sold them to the government. In theory they used petro oil money to lower grocery prices. Our regular grocery outlets were forced out of business. When the government demanded we sell them products below cost we simply had to shut down. The populous became ever more dependent on the government handouts. (PS this is the mayor of New York City’s proposal.
4. Dollars- We needed dollars to go buy raw materials like wheat from places like the US and Canada. The government would periodically allocate us some dollars that could only be spent for raw materials and freight. Eventually only the local companies that can and would pay bribes got dollar allocations. We had several facilities closed for lack of raw material
5. My employees liked working for Cargill. The office was an armed compound with access to a gym, high speed internet, global communications, and a weekly box of basic staples. Cargill provided a safe and secure environment if only for the working hours.
6. Employees became very close to others inside the apartment building. Going out on the street with a desperate population was not advisable.
7. I needed wood pallets for feed. We tried to export wood pallets to swap for grain. We refused to pay the bribes it would take to export the pallets
8. I once tried to set up a closed loop wheat planting to flour mill supply chain. A. They came and stole all the seed wheat for food. When we tried to ship in seed wheat in containers via US donors there was no way to get it out of the port without it being stolen
9. Livestock- Our feed business completely collapsed. Even if you could raise a pig, you couldn’t defend it from being stolen. People with guns were hungry.
10. Employees- In the end my highly skilled team alone with other highly educated people chose to leave. Cargill often found jobs for them in other Latin countries. The regime was more than happy to see the well-educated leave the country. Setting these employees up with high quality stable jobs after fleeing remains one of the best things I ever did in my career. No one remembers millions in trading earnings.
This is a short list. In my opinion the first money spent needs to happen now and it needs to be food. The US is already on the clock. The current regime does not care if it starves the population. The orgy of theft will actually accelerate if they believe their days are numbered. VZ should be an outstanding customer of US grown ag products. Rice, bread wheat, veg oil ect. Feed the people first.
Jeff Kazin
Former head trading Cargill
Are the big banks “net long” silver now?
Willem Middelkoop
@wmiddelkoop
Ed Steer on Silver: I’ll point here that the short positions of the Big 4 and Big 8 commercial traders are the lowest they’ve been since mid-November 2023…a bit over two years ago. I’m sure that’s the result of the 5 U.S. bullion banks covering short positions over most of last year — and why they’re net long silver by a bit now
Copper
Otavio (Tavi) Costa
@TaviCosta
And this, my friends, is what price discovery looks like.
In my view, we are experiencing one of the most important moves in copper prices in decades.
Game on.
Mining cos are in the catbird seat
Wall Street Mav
@WallStreetMav
I have spoken with 3 different CEOs for silver mining companies.
All three of them confirmed the same thing. They are currently receiving about $3 per oz above the publicly traded prices for the silver they sell to smelters.
There are platforms the silver mining companies use, to let the Switzerland commodity companies know what they have produced. The mining companies and test the market at higher prices to see if anyone bites. Lately they are getting about $3 per oz above the public pricing you see in the media.
This indicates some stress and desperation to secure supply of silver.
Nevertheless
Crimex opens the day with a paper flush. Can only hope they breathe their last breath in March.
Silver Bullet – Wow! Saw that
$8 – 9 spread is a nice arbitrage opportunity for the paper players here to take delivery and ship east.
The Crimex can’t maintain credibility as a market unless they can actually deliver the metal for the lower price.
There’s a lot of speculation about a March default on Crimex – the next big delivery month.
I’m guessing here but after Trump’s move on Venezuela, the Chinese aren’t going to try to calm the prices on Shanghai, I’d guess they’ll increase the pressure to break the Crimex.
Shanghai Gold Fix
The closing fix in Shanghai shows the spread from New York almost doubled… And given that Shanghai is physical market, that’s closer to what the real physical prices is than the comex futures or the London spot…… So it seems that even with price Of silver rising as quick as it has, the buying pressure for physical is rising faster.. The afternoon close in Shanghai was 87.09 .. The spread now Stands right at 9 Dollars…
Buygold
Especially if not by next earnings. Hl once did really well with the run up to 1980 highs with different datas showing 38 and 50 a share at lower phyz prices than now.
Looking at earnings estimates for HL and AG
Earnings for Q4 estimates for Hecla is $.12,
Q4 for First Majestic is $.14
Both seem light, really light.
If those two companies don’t smash or somehow find a way not to beat those earnings, they’ve got serious problems.
Mr Copper
Hard to read on my phone can only see part at a time. . Ill sell before one, the few times they came up what I saw was they might go up in price but then go back down
You have more of it. So they’re not saying by how much since that comes out to almost 1 1/2 times more or how many shares the other company will add. I might have to check my mail. I didn’t want to have to trade any shares for awhile. Thanks for the info.
Shanghai am fix $83.98
Seems like it matters.
@aufever @goldielocks re CDE
I got a book in the mail telling me to vote. Rather than read the story I asked ChatGPT, so I’ll relay what was said.
ME>>Re CDE Coeur Mining, what do they want us to vote on, briefly.
Briefly — Coeur Mining (CDE) wants shareholders to vote on a special meeting related to a planned acquisition of New Gold:
What you are being asked to vote on:
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Charter Amendment: Approve increasing the number of authorized shares of Coeur Mining common stock (from 900 million to 1.3 billion).
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Stock Issuance: Approve issuing Coeur shares to New Gold shareholders as part of the planned all-stock merger/ acquisition of New Gold by Coeur. Stock Titan+1
These approvals are required for the deal with New Gold — which, if passed, would combine the companies and issue new CDE shares to New Gold owners. Stock Titan
If you’d like the meeting date and proxy details, I can add that too.
ME>>>it all sounds bad for the CDE shares.
Here’s a brief, balanced reality check:
📉 Raising authorized shares and issuing new shares can put downward pressure on an existing stock price in the short term because it dilutes current shareholders.
📈 But context matters:
-
Coeur Mining’s proposed merger with New Gold is strategic — the company argues it will create a larger, more diversified mining business with stronger cash flow and reserves.
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Combining two miners can bring cost savings, broader asset base, and longer mine life, which some investors view as positive in the long run.
So it can feel bad for current share dilution, but investors sometimes support dilution if the merger creates greater total value over time.
Bottom line (brief):
✔️ Dilution *can hurt share price short term.
✔️ Merger *could be accretive long term if well executed.
If you want the latest analyst sentiment or price targets on this deal, I can summarize them.
ME>>>yes
Here’s a **brief summary of current analyst sentiment and price outlook on Coeur Mining (CDE) around the New Gold merger:
Ad Hoc News
TechStock²
Trefis
Seeking Alpha
Ad Hoc News
📈 Bullish / Buy-side Views
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Most professional analysts rate CDE as a Buy, with ~85% Buy recommendations and average price targets above current levels (about ~$21 on average). INDmoney
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Some firms (e.g., TD Securities, Roth Capital) have raised price targets based on stronger production forecasts and the strategic logic of the merger. Finviz
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Recent Strong Buy upgrades reflect optimism that the combined company could be bigger and more cash-flowing after closing. Ad Hoc News
⚠️ Neutral / Mixed Views
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Some sources note split analyst opinions: certain models and forecasts still see only modest upside or valuation dispersion. TechStock²+1
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All-stock mergers can pressure share prices short term (dilution), even if the long-term thesis is positive. Investing.com UK
📉 Risks to Consider
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The merger and share dilution are a short-term negative catalyst for current shareholders. Investing.com UK
-
Operating performance and commodity prices (gold/silver) remain key drivers — a weaker metals market could temper returns. Trefis
Summary (brief):
✔️ Most analysts rate CDE as a Buy with upside potential post-merger. INDmoney
⚠️ Deal dilution and market volatility mean near-term pressure is possible. Investing.com UK
📊 Long-term thesis hinges on execution of the New Gold merger and metals price trends. Nasdaq
If you want, I can list the specific price targets and recommended upside percentages analysts are projecting.
Yes — that pattern is very common.
Why it happens (briefly):
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Buyer’s stock drops: investors price in dilution, integration risk, and execution uncertainty.
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Target’s stock rises: the acquisition locks in a premium or clearer valuation for the acquired company.
It doesn’t mean the deal is bad — it’s a short-term market reaction. If the merger delivers synergies and cash flow, the buyer can recover over time.
ME>>>when is the vote taking place or when will they announce it.
The shareholder vote for the Coeur Mining–New Gold merger is scheduled for:
📅 January 27, 2026 — Coeur and New Gold shareholders will vote on the deal, including the charter amendment and stock issuance proposals required to complete the acquisition. Investing.com+1
The meeting is expected to be held online and is part of the required approvals before the merger can close, which both companies currently anticipate will happen in the first half of 2026 if all conditions are met. Stock Titan+1
If anything changes (adjournment or new date), Coeur will publicly announce it before the vote.
ME>>>which company CDE or NGD makes the biggest profit lately.
Between Coeur Mining (CDE) and New Gold (NGD), here’s what recent financials show (briefly):
📊 Coeur Mining (CDE)
-
Q3 2025 reported **record quarterly GAAP net income of about $267 million. CDE has had multiple profitable quarters in 2025. Coeur Mining
📊 New Gold (NGD)
-
Recent quarters show positive net income (e.g., in Q3 2025 NGD had about $140 million profit) and the company’s trailing-twelve-month net income around ~$249 million. Yahoo Finance+1
Bottom line (brief):
✔️ Both companies are now profitable.
✔️ CDE’s latest single-quarter profit ($267 M) was higher than NGD’s recent quarter profit (~$140 M).
✔️ Over the past year, NGD’s total profit ≈ $249 M (TTM), and CDE’s aggregated profits appear strong given multiple profitable quarters.
So recently, Coeur (CDE) has shown higher individual quarterly profit figures, though NGD has also turned profitable and grown earnings significantly recently.
ME>>>I have 7800 shares of it and after so many years with it under water and finally I’m have a 55% profit. So I’ll be watching it.
Mr Copper
I’m holding some CDE. I’m surprised it didn’t drop today with that news as they usually do at first for the buyers. Have to sign out right now though for awhile.
Mr.Copper
I would like to hear what you know about CDE.
I just added a tiny amount to my small position today.
Thank you
Ipso 13:13
Well that was fast. What did they think was going to happen.
I watched a video on the somalis. It has infiltrated in the police who won’t arrest them amf courts that judges will set them free even if convicted. Like LA and SF they have to go after everyone,drug cartel in LA found even police involved warning drug dealers of raids and on.psytolls SF judges fired over fast tracking illegals into the country. They need to clear out everyone involved..
Re CDE and NGD,
CDE wants to buy out NGD if any of you have CDE I have info on the merger.
treefrog
Nothing not to like with silver other than the endless paper manipulations. As for the silver shares, take a look at the Captain’s chart. That chart is just ridiculous. I have 20+ years of pent-up patience, thanks though.
Deer
I had to take a break from the screen for a minute. The letters are so small on my phone. The pros of owning that stock besides it isn’t going away anytime soon and out of the manipulated market here. Like what Buygold observed today with the shares. When the dollar heads down others might too but don’t know so shares cost less now. Cons I have no idea. I had enough problems with Canadian stocks years ago with their low volume but if you placed a limit below bid and asking price it sold much faster. So I don’t want to trade anything not listed in the US.
Deer
Yeah I saw that but as far as JPM probably business deal or stocks. The government since Trump has been securing industrial metals like looking at Greenland and quite aware with they need for metals and rare earths. Look at a local stock MP. Not a deer in the headlights like the demos no pun intended. I like deers one even walked up to me but no one else at the lake it would run off. Would I shoot one of I had to yes but just hoped I didn’t. Trump’s working on it.
Having a hard time typing. With everything going on they’re plenty of other stocks to choose from. Hopefully these mines are protected Incase the politics change hands. I seen what they do to business in a demo state.
Large quake watch for California
Deep water fish washing up and quake activity. Like hurricane watch it could or could not hit.
Grin or Grimace
Thought I would post a little taste of Jacob Rees-Mogg who knows how to present a point of view
(Not keen on politics myself but I do follow world affairs.)
He was a senior Conservative politicians but lost his seat.
Goldielocks re. Korea Zinc
Same company????
Financing a new smelting facility in Clarksville, TN……
JPM have their fingers in the pie as well…….
Some back room shenanigans going on?????
FAFO
Benny Johnson
@bennyjohnson
BREAKING: Hilton Hotels REFUSES Service to ICE Agents, Discriminates Against Trump Administration in Minnesota
The federal government is surging resources in Minneapolis to lawfully crack down on billions of dollars in fraud and to deport dangerous criminal aliens.
@HiltonHotels
is defending the criminals by refusing service to federal law enforcement and the Trump Administration.
DHS just sent us an exclusive proof that Hilton Hotels has BARRED and REJECTED federal law enforcement officers in Minnesota.