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At least morning on my side of the country now. Still pretty early. 🙂
We get a lot of good stuff here. A lot of speculation, and everyone here is a diehard, so they participate in trying to read the tea leaves. It’s great, especially after all these years.
Looks like gold is carrying the day at this early moment, up another $40, silver up $.22, but always get the feeling silver is looking over its shoulder for the next takedown.
Dollar down, oil flat, SM futures down some. Bitcoin down 1/2%. Rates flat.
We got the CPI report this am, and it looks like they raised the bar and are expecting lower numbers. Probably going to see some shifting around in the next 6 hours. Hopefully the numbers do come in lower.
The metals. A woman took out 500 they asked her why she wanted it. 500 wow
A man maybe from England said a guy went to pull out 2 K for a bike. They asked him to get a letter from the guy selling the bike first. Need to stack more cash as well.
That’s not my line of work but some flood zones for that have underground drains. At least evacuation routes with some plans where they can go. But again not nearly an expert but someone should be.
I did an MBO for a firm making capacitors in north Wales in 1985. I sort of felt a bit betrayed when they offshored to China a couple of years later. All those jobs gone. But, they were just ahead of the game. They even make Corona beer in China for the Aussie market now.
That’s the main issue, not tariffs. Labour costs. If both sides levelled the playing field with no tariffs, no artificial barriers to entry, no customs shenanigans, China would still win hands down because of wages. Trump would have to insist that all people manufacturing stuff exported to America were paid US wage rates. China would just tell Trump to lower US wages.
I personally know two friends that had their needs made in China. Pretty much most people from many countries have been getting things made in China. Years ago a local machine shop owner used to get a nice repeat job from a repeat customer.
Suddenly every time he quotes the job and does not get it. So for an experiment, he quoted JUST the material cost, and STILL didn’t get the job. He found out his customer was having them made in China.
I believe Japan was the main global vendor until around 1989, then they rotated to China after that, even Japanese Sony TVs are made in China.
It doesn’t so much as run off, as creep, or sink in. There will be towns downstream of those floods that will be preparing for the water in a few days time. That station runs 29,000 head, on 3.7m acres, or one beast per 130 acres …. and the rains would wash away raised areas. It is truly a unique environment, with unique people living there and running the vastness.
I agree with you it’s not climate change, the land grabs scheme that needs to be stopped. Just not it’s no big deal. Have they ever thought about raising some of that vast land for a emergency like this or having some way to divert that run off into channels away from the herds and ranchers?
Big place, Queensland. With big cattle stations. The biggest is almost 6,000 sq miles, about four and half times the size of the largest ranch in the US of A. And flat. Big, and flat. The Biggest and Flattest Ever, as your boss would say. So when it floods, which it has every now and then for the last 200 years at least, we lose some cattle. Nothing to do with climate change. As the poet said in 1908:
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
With a national herd of about 30m, and not losing any due to drought for the next three years, we won’t notice 150,000 here or there. Sad for the cattle though.
The general biblical terms are taught when young, the rest is their own imagination and a bad attempt to accept these lunatics ideas instead of reject them. They neglect to say to those at the last minute who h isn’t exactly the last minute but who sacrificed nothing by rejecting what God may have wanted for their own security for instance suddenly getting religion God doesn’t hear them anymore.
I don’t think China stealing our manufacturing base, or patents, our land, our technology, or giving us diseases. I also think the communist party doesn’t care about their people and do what’s best for themselves over the people. I heard the people aren’t too happy about it either. Trump is not stealing in turn he’s just taking back what’s ours in the first place. I supposed now we’ll hear oh what’s he gonna do to ohh poor China.
Did you hear about he floods in Australia? All that livestock lost while other standing in water till they perish and their calling climate manipulation. Terrible, why didn’t the ones who are the head of that area get the live stock immediately help to get them out of there even now?
Obviously there’s an element of destroying, or at least reducing, China’s manufacturing base – and everybody else’s. That’s Trump’s stated intention of tariffs, to bring manufacturing back to the US. A new tyre factory in the US means less manufacturing in China. But why the 90 day suspension of tariffs on all the good children who brought teacher an apple today? How does that fund the abolition of income taxes and recreate America’s industries? This, together with extra tariffs for China, means he is trying to force them to the table. What if they still don’t come, but retaliate through other means – like rare earths, selling their remaining treasuries or devaluation? And what happens at the end of 90 days? Isn’t that just building more uncertainty? So much can happen in 90 days. He hasn’t been president that long yet!
And that supposedly stellar 10yr auction, where the directs caught even ZH out by missing their expectation of a poor ~7% by coming in at an atrocious 1.4%? The auction was only a stellar success (at a yield of about 10% higher than it was on Monday) because of foreign buyers. I’d love to know whether the Belgians were a significant purchaser like they were in previous crises.
Yep a lot of somebody’s got caught short and China probably was shorting and thinking they could control that. Ohhh what’s Trump gonna do lol They just got 90 days in the hole. You just never know what he’s gonna do. Lol
Historic day for the good guys! I want to say how much I appreciate your daily reports and insights on the market. Maybe soon we’ll be seeing no more red in our accounts!
Re Volatility ….I think there are loads of options in these mkts, that were put on before the ‘crisis’ came and if they were mainly April options the delta is close to 75% I would think…..hence the panic buying on such news as today…..
The stock market is currently prone to sharp fluctuations, driven by a mix of low liquidity and algorithmic trading bots reacting to headlines. This dynamic amplified a fake tweet about President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, sparking a $2.7 trillion market surge on Monday, and is now powering another rise in U.S. stocks today. As traders struggle to adapt, market makers are pulling back, raising trading costs and intensifying volatility in equity markets.
“Liquidity is terrible, so anyone with just a decent-sized order is going to move the market,” Brent Kochuba, founder of the options data provider Spot Gamma wrote in a research note to clients on Monday.
When traders talk about liquidity, they mean the ease at which investors can buy and sell financial instruments. That dried up at times on Monday amid a frenzied eight-percentage-point round trip in the S&P 500. In the options market, bid-ask spreads briefly jumped three-fold. Liquidity remained sparse during the European trading day on Tuesday.
The conditions amplified the 180-degree turn in sentiment on Monday, aided by momentum-driven trading algorithms primed to react to sudden changes in market direction, according to Benn Eifert, managing partner and co-chief investment officer at the hedge fund QVR Advisors. “Big trades just push the market really fast,” he said.
Eifert says the way market makers and hedge funds are programmed to trade on news contributed to the market reaction to the tariff headline. Automated trading systems can pick up shifts in market sentiment in milliseconds, exacerbating price swings. “You have a daisy chain of buying reactions in response to a headline,” Eifert said. “Algorithms are tuned to react extremely quickly to any kind of headline reversing tariffs.”
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