Loading ...Lumber Versus Gold: Predicting A Crash
I also like what he wrote here at the end – pretty honest:
A Problem With Crash Predictions
Whenever you read investment commentary, it’s useful to ask what the writer is selling. In Gayed’s case, he runs a tactical asset rotation fund. In our case, we developed the hedged portfolio method and have a hedging app, so it’s in our interest to pass along crash predictions. Nevertheless, we have to acknowledge a problem with crash predictions: they dramatically outnumber actual crashes. So we’re not convinced Gayed’s prediction here will come to pass. But it might not hurt to add some downside protection just in case he ends up being right. That’s particularly true given that it’s relatively inexpensive to hedge market risk now.