OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

I wanted to find out for myself. So I gathered all the historical price and COT data for the 5-years treasury market. I compared each week’s report to the next week’s rolling average (in order to best capture fluctuations and changes throughout the week). I then built four different kinds of classification models to predict whether prices would go up or down based off the changes of position of the various kinds of traders, and I found that the data led to correct predictions about 62% of the time across all four models. This strongly suggests that the COT can be effectively used as a guide for speculators as the legend has long claimed, but that it should not be fully relied upon. I encourage readers of this blog not to take my word for it, but to conduct their own analysis and see for themselves.