Are Chemtrails real? (Chemicals being sprayed in the atmosphere)
Total Voters: 45
Loading ...Authers also states: “But if we treat it rigorously, the bubble concept is still vital in navigating financial markets.” The problem is markets love Bubbles – jump aboard and make easy “money.” And for the past decade central banks have incentivized speculation and speculative leverage across assets classes and around the world.
Bubble Analysis is vital for both navigating markets and for policymaking. For a decade now, speculators have been playing Bubbles, while central bankers have been denying their existence. Global bond markets have become convinced the Bubble is faltering, with the expectation that central banks have no alternative than to drive rates even lower while monetizing further Trillions of government bonds (throwing in some corporate debt and even equities for good measure). This expectation of additional aggressive monetary stimulus has bolstered the view within the risk markets that the bottomless central bank punchbowl will keep the party rocking.
Quote:
Buy or Die
A conversation I had with a fund manager in Europe was quite revealing …
This fellow — let’s call him Franz — told me that as European governments rolled out negative-yielding debt, Franz’s fund stopped buying bonds. He preferred to keep more cash on the books rather than buy a bond that would cost him to own it over the next 10, 20 or even 30 years.
That’s when the regulators called. “Why aren’t you buying bonds?” they asked.
“There’s no yield in new bonds,” he replied.
“Part of the mandate of your fund is to own government bonds,” the regulators told him. “Either buy the bonds, or we’ll shut you down.”
So that’s who is buying these bonds. Funds that are forced to buy them … OR ELSE.
Unquote
It’s been a full decade of government and central bank backstops, with the “Trump put” a relatively late addition. It sure appears the Trump, central bank and Beijing “puts” have lost some potency. And in about a month we’ll have a better read on the “Fed put.” It’s a reasonable bet the stock market will go into the September 18th FOMC meeting with a gun to its head: “50 bps or we’ll shoot!”
Much can happen in a month – especially at the current mercurial clip of developments. But the Fed will be in a really tough spot. Don’t give the market 50 bps and ultra-dovish commentary and risk getting hit with a heated market tantrum. Give markets what they demand and risk a “sell the news” response and a critical change in market sentiment. It has the feel that a decade of egregious monetary inflation and speculative Bubbles is about to get Some Comeuppance.
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2019/08/weekly-commentary-comeuppance.html
in 2020 and the nation as we know it would cease to exist…unless martial law was declared…
Not sure this is THEE bottom for rates but I think they could have a good bounce from here cause I think stocks are ready to have a strong bounce….from Wolanchuks blog today=
Wow! The CNN fear/greed index went DOWN from 19 to 17 this AM. Now that is insane. It will no doubt adjust and end up up for the day but this dip early in the AM shows how negative the sentiment got. AMD , my main holding, is rocketing. A good sign for the overall market since it was a rocketship when the market was strong
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
Because they are still trying to sell the rally. Have a look at the P/C ratio.
Of course, this is even more contrarian bullish over the next few days.
dow up 286 but the sp500 up the equivalent of 400 dow pts [WOLLIE]
Russell 2000 up more than that.
Rates in the U.S. are now going to zero like the rest of the world, the bond market is forcing the Fed’s hand.
You should probably bank on that trade, maybe even sooner than you think.
I don’t see how the Fed does anything less than a .5% rate cut in Sept. Anything less will force rates down even further.
With regards to Bob Hoye….who knows…he has the Cabal on his side…
Sorry if that came off the wrong way.
Especially to one of the ballsest traders on this board.
We know you know that.
Cheers
If today. is the worst we have to endure, then we. have nothing to fear from a correction–also, don’t forget that a great part of this rally. saw gold go up WITH. stocks…remember we were talking about. Wolanchuk being correct when he said that stocks and gold go up together–so if stocks have bottomed gold could still rise…as for the dread “higher rates”remember that. when gold peaked in 1980, it took. a what??
a 12% or. 16% 30 year t-bond tp stop the rally!!
Filled Buy to Open 60 TBF Dec 20 2019 19.0 CallLimit0.35—-15:58:06 08/16/19
Filled Buy to Open 1 TBF Dec 20 2019 19.0 CallLimit0.35—-15:58:06 08/16/19
Silver looks a bit bullish I dunno.
Gold pretty much the same.
at the risk of making a fool of myself – I just picked up some FSM – Fortuna Silver
If we’re really in a new bull this stuff should snap back.
NEM is up today – go figure.
COT’s have been a mess for at least a couple of months now so Hoye has no argument there.
Maybe Gold is hosed because of the COT’s, I’m just wondering what will happen when the dollar catches up to the falling interest rates.
Course gold and silver ARE the most manipulated markets on the planet. How else could the COT’s be explained?
I’m looking for China to come out either this weekend or next saying they are going to dump US treasuries.
We’ll see what happens.
I’m sure those are all valid concerns, however everywhere I look across the sector I see no froth what so ever. And like Rick Rule said on the Sprott podcast today, participation rates in PM’s are still only one fifth of the 30-year average.
What this means is just to get back to the 30-year average, aggregate investor participation in the sector needs to quintuple in years to come — and far more to return to the 1980 peak.
So some crazy things in the overbought department should be both anticipated and welcomed — not feared at this point.
Peddle to the metal.
Pun intended.
Cheers
COT, Exhaustion and TD Combo Alerts in Gold
The last time we reported on the COT readings in gold was near the bottom on August 19, 2018; “Specs in Gold are Now Net Short – Daily Sequential & Combo Buys in GLD”. As of August 6, 2019 the Commercial and Speculative positions have reached levels not seen since the gold top in 2016.
While absolute levels of Commercial and Speculative positions are important, we are more interested in the excesses seen in the action around important reversals. The COT signals we utilize are reasonably rare, looking for the RSI(14) in both to be at an extreme while they are outside their Bollinger Bands(50,2). These criteria are in place now.
Last week saw a $100 rally, staying overbought and ‘Exhausted” for five consecutive days.
As of Friday, it has a completed TD Combo 13 Countdown, last seen around the January high. The Sequential countdown is at 12. One more
Geez, maybe $1500 and $17 are in jeopardy after all.
What a shit show
*BofA Merrill’s Ciana Says Yield Curve Could Invert 50 Basis Points, Gold May Hit $2,300
*30-year Treasury bond yield falls below 2% level for first time
Aug 14, 2019 11:12 p.m. ET
MarketWatch
After falling to an all-time low Wednesday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, -2.13% dropped under the 2% level for the first time early Thursday in Asian trading. The longest-dated Treasury bond dropped to 2.06% during U.S. trading, and was last at 1.97%. The 30-year yield’s previous all-time low was set in July 2016, when it touched 2.09% after the U.K.’s Brexit vote. Debt prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
-END-
Make that three, just in this afternoon:
WSJ
ECB Has Big Bazooka Primed for September, Top Official Says
Updated Aug. 15, 2019 1:17 pm ET
HELSINKI—The European Central Bank will announce a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should exceed investors’ expectations, a top official at the central bank said…
https://www./15/climate-activist-greta-thunberg-sets-sail-for-u-s-in-solar-powered-yacht/
A lecture, furthermore, from a child who hasn’t finished her schooling, whose frontal lobes haven’t formed, who has no sense of humour, whose every utterance is the second-hand opinion of alarmist grown-ups whose doomsday claims she is completely unequipped to assess?
No kind of man that I know of, that’s for sure. Unless you count tofu-eating, milquetoast, pantywaist, beta, snowflake, self-flagellating, Mom’s-basement-dwelling, environmental science graduates as men.
Which I’m not sure I do — and they probably wouldn’t identify as men, anyway, so I don’t think I’m being judgemental here. I’d hate to be judgemental because that would be wrong.
Good for a buck or two in gold, but starting to fade it now.
Could be a gap n’ crap day for the SM but I defer to Captain Hook and R640 on that one.
Interest rates slowly creeping up with the USD, but still down a little from yesterday.
Looks like silver will have to do the heavy lifting if we’re going to have any chance today.
At least we should finish the week comfortably above $1500 and $17
Evolution of the Bullet Train – Shinkansen
https://railpictures.net/photo/706394/
https://railpictures.net/photo/706391/
I have ridden the first generation bullet, and the newer split-level ‘Max’ (not shown) in Japan. You can step up to the mark on the platform and set your watch by the arrival and doors opening… always within 30 seconds of schedule. If the train is more than two minutes late, they refund your ticket price! Japan knows how to do high speed rail transport to perfection.
If GE is really in trouble the stock will start to unravel fast..
They have their tentacles in so many industries and finance, they’ll take a lot of folks down with them.
What I’m unsure of is what the bond market is trying to tell us. Something stinks, given the speed the bond market has fallen, pm’s have underperformed – thanks to the dollar.
I suspect something’s up and we’ll be the last to know…
benefits US Consumer = votes for Trump…Cheap oil benefits CHINA ,thank you TRUMP….Cheap OIL really HURTS IRAN ,SAUDI IRAQ and all the MID EAST crazys….who Cares ? they dont have any votes..!
ITS election time ..getting elected is all that matters..just ask the Democrats ,,look how crazy it made them.!!!
are a problem for Rich Democrats not VOTERS ,the majority of them that elected TRump dont own Stock ,they depend on their JOBS to make a living .Thats why crashes like that of 87 happened during Reagans term when His Treasury Secretary started the crash with threats that he would let the “DOLLAR FLOAT” if trade differences didnt work out..History is repeating itself…. Reagan got re elected ….Getting re elected is all about JOBS,JOBS,JOBS ……not Wall St…Theres NO VOTES on Wall ST. just money ! and voters dont have enough of it..VOTERS arent stupid ,they vote their pocket Book .and Trump knows it…
