GoldTent Oasis is dedicated to our friend and founder John F. Murphy (Wanka) of Key West, Florida without whom this website would not exist. Gone but never forgotten.
ENTER ~ Post by the Golden Rule. Gentlemanly conduct is the attire of the day. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts DYODD. ~~~~~~~
This time as far as mortgage it’s not just blame it on Fed or market. It’s the greed in realtor market. They got wind Trumps in office, the economy is improving so like vultures there they go raising prices. At the same time you got criminals buying up apartments taking them over and raising the rents. In California it’s outrageous. One woman told me one two bedroom apt she moved out from cost too much at 1500 a month is now 2300 a month.She made good money but wasn’t stupid. Across the board they’ve raised the rents hundreds of dollars and no real difference in the place or square footage just greed. All revolving on breaks to the working class with tax breaks and jobs that was meant for them not these greedy brain dead sobs that want to swoop up and take it plus more. They are trying to make it a rental monopoly. Same for housing.
If it collapses it’s their own doing and can’t see too many feeling sorry for them. I bet they’re for open borders too.
I love these ‘non-calls’ like Ray Dalio’s 40% odds for a recession. We get one, he called it. We don’t, he called it. Akin to ‘sort of being pregnant’ if you catch my drift.
We just saw first-hand the ‘pushing on a string’ theme coming to fruition. Mortgage rates down nearly 100 bps since the beginning of the year and yet single-family housing starts have plunged at an 18% annual rate.
Hey, if you don’t like the yield curve as a recession gauge, how about the -5.9% YoY trend in the Cass Freight Index, the -9.7% plunge in Port of Long Beach cargo traffic and the 3.9% slide in US railway carloadings?
Major reason for meltdown in bond yields? We’re back in a deep global savings glut. When investment falls short of savings, rates fall. It’s that simple. And the rising level of uncertainty, on trade and other matters too, has caused capex worldwide to retreat.
August 13 – Bloomberg (Lu Wang and Elena Popina): “A sleepy August morning got frantic in a hurry Tuesday when conciliatory statements on U.S.-China trade ignited an explosion in equity futures trading. Almost 130,000 September contracts on the equity gauge changed hands over five minutes starting at 9:45 a.m. in New York, five times the average for similar periods over the past month… News the Trump administration will delay the 10% tariff on some Chinese products sent prices on the contract up 2% in about half an hour. ‘We go from sipping from the water fountain to drinking from the fire hose,’ said Larry Weiss, head of equity trading at Instinet LLC… ‘The headlines certainly exacerbate intraday volatility, as summertime volumes present us with a decline in institutional and retail liquidity.’ Near-panic has become nearly routine in the U.S. stock market, belying August’s reputation for calm.”
Submitted by cpowell on 03:00AM ET Saturday, August 17, 2019. Section: Daily Dispatches
Should This Be Illegal — Banks Recommending a Stock to the Public, then Secretly Trading It in Their Own Dark Pool?
By Pam and Russ Martens Wall Street on Parade Friday, August 16, 2019
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 99.97 points yesterday but the mega Wall Street bank, Citigroup, closed in the red, down 0.15 percent. That decline follows a dramatic loss of 5.28 percent on Wednesday, a day that the Dow was down only 3.05 percent.
Citigroup’s closing price yesterday was $61.32. The stock has lost more than 88 percent of its value since 2007, despite its attempt to dress up the share price with a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in 2011, which left its long-term shareholders with 1 share for each 10 shares previously held.
Citi’s share price has also been dropping like a rock since July 24 of this year when it closed at $73.01. But that hasn’t triggered a rethink on the part of its competitor banks on Wall Street who have “buy” or “overweight” ratings on Citi’s stock according to MarketBeat.
From September 20, 2018, to the close of trading on Christmas Eve of last year, Citigroup lost a whopping 34 percent of its value. That’s in just a little over three months. Nothing about its situation or the global macroeconomic picture has changed for the better after last year’s rout but, for some reason, four of its big bank peers got very bullish on its stock this year. …
Is Silver creating a multi-decade bullish Cup & Handle pattern? Possible!
Silver peaked at $50 in the early 1980s and then proceeded to fall for years. It peaked again at $50 in 2011 and it has declined for the past 8-years.
The two peaks at the $50 level could be the top of a bullish cup and handle pattern.
One this is for sure, Silver has been very weak over the past 8-years, as it has declined over 65%! The 8-year decline in Silver has created a uniform falling channel.
The move higher in Silver of late does have it breaking above the falling channel at (1). This breakout sends a bullish message to Silver owners.
The next important resistance test for Silver comes into play at the $17.64 level!
What would it take to determine if Silver has created a multi-decade bullish cup and handle pattern? A clean break above the $50 level, which is still a “long, long” way off!
The Huawei thing is significant and Trump absolutely cannot let the SM go down. Too much of the economy depends on it being strong from now until eternity.
That being said, if we start to see continued weakness in rates, it’s probably a good bet that there’s something else besides China going on – or several something elses. The USD strength continues to puzzle me.
highlights the problem in the BOND Markets which is more important at this juncture than the Stock Market because its bigger than the Stock Market ..Gold is yielding MORE than many Sovereign Bonds..,I ask what happens when GOLD YIELDS more than the Treasury bonds ? When they yield less than GOLD ..its all over ! BONDS are worth ZERO without a YIELD .YEARS ago I bought “ZERO COUPON BONDS” when interest rates were 18 % ..I bought them for $150.00 per $1000 Bond.After Paul Volker ended his rate rise as Yield fell and I sold my Bonds for $1300 .00 each…Very nice …thank you Volker …Now we have the opposite ! Gold Yields more than BONDS and I BUY GOLD very Cheap instead of Bonds and I expect probably a 10X return on it…
BUT along with the destruction of Bonds means the destruction of DEBT public & Private ….thats going to be Painfull .ITS the DESTRUCTION of CREDIT ! you pay CASH ! for your needs….NO credit Cards !CASH will be KING and GOLD its Master .When people cant make car payments the Price will plummet from 40,000 to $4000…….for the cash buyer !
But I’ve never wavered from the view that this would end badly. Never have I believed that manipulating and distorting markets would achieve anything but epic Bubbles and inevitable terrible hardship. I’ve not seen evidence to counter the view that the longer the global Bubble inflates the greater the downside risk (moreover, such risk grows exponentially over time). And not for one minute did I believe zero rates and QE would resolve deep financial and economic structural issues. Indeed, I have fully expected reckless monetary mismanagement to ensure a global crisis much beyond 2008. From my analytical perspective, the global Bubble has followed the worst-case scenario.
It sounds archaic, but sound money and Credit are fundamental to sound financial systems, sound economic structure, cohesive societies and a stable geopolitical backdrop. The most unsound “money” in human history comes with dire consequences. Global finance now suffers from irreparable structural impairment. Economies across the globe are deeply maladjusted. Global imbalances are unprecedented. The trajectory of geopolitical strife is frightening.
Meanwhile, central banks are locked in flawed inflationist doctrine. Their experiment is failing, yet in failure they will resort to only more reckless market manipulation and monetary inflation. This analysis is corroborated both by collapsing sovereign yields and a surging gold price. The clear and present risk is of an abrupt globalized market dislocation, financial crisis and resulting economic and geopolitical instability. It may sound like crazy talk, except for the fact that such a scenario is alarmingly consistent with signals now blaring from global bond markets.
On Friday Trump made another unexpected concession toward China when the Commerce Department announced it would extend a reprieve given to Huawei allowing it to buy supplies from U.S. companies so that it can service existing customers.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately again yesterday. They’re now back to their Aug. 7 level, which was the lowest in nearly three years. Indeed, they’re not too far off their 2012 all-time low.
However, that happy picture may not last long. Because, first thing this morning, markets looked set for a better day from most people’s point of view. And that means a worse day for those who want lower mortgage rates.
So mortgage rates today look likely to rise. But that’s based on the assumption those rates will follow other key markets in the normal way. And, as always, events might yet overtake that prediction.
Guessing it was that party that killed all those people. Woodstock going on one place a hurricane another. There’s not too many things I’d move away from but a hurricane would be one of them. In a quake if you survive you can at least gather supplies. In a hurricane u can’t even do that. They should of had a inflatable boat or a couple of them if they were gonna stay.
Allz I know is that back in 2018 the likes of Gundlach. and PIMCO and just. about every other firm/analyst were pounding the table that the 38 year bond bull. market had definitely ended…now everyone is. on the other side=rates going to zero…the. low confidence/just can’t imagine trades are often good ones to make…one problem I have is that I have profits…and a. trader always has to piss away his. profits…so, the most contrary trade on the planet looks worth a try…rates use to move in glacial increments but we just. saw rates plummet in A WEEKS TIME…so 4 months on my. Dec calls and & 7 months on my March calls would allow for a good move…Peter Tchir. is a top analyst–I saw him on Bloomberg Friday=
is for all well managed Gold &Silver entities to seek inclusion in the S&P500 .That way those that finagle their way into positions of Power(the gate keepers) cant exclude you .If you in the index they have to buy you..Once your in thats a big support base for your stock price ,from there you can buy assets from those excluded at a cheap price…..
Fifty years ago today, Camille, a category 5 hurricane hit the Mississippi coast. A friend of mine was invited to a hurricane party in Biloxi. He hitch-hiked over there from Tallahassee a couple days in advance. No one ever heard from him again.
Loading ...
