Posted by Richard640
@ 13:14 on August 22, 2019
AAII Sentiment Results: Pessimism Persists, Opportunity Abounds…
Albeit modest, bulls are slowly coming out of the bunkers (up to 26.64% this week compared to 23.18% last week). Bears have come down a bit as well (from 44.85% to 39.72%). This suggests some thawing is taking place – similar to the looks off of the bottom in June and December (see featured chart of bullish sentiment relative to the S&P 500 above).
Any positive spark would cause a stampede back into markets given the underweight positioning to equities, short covering and career risk of missing a move back to new highs. That said, nothing is ever a guarantee – simply a probabilistic advantage that you calculate and manage the risk as you take up exposure.
Offering further support is that there is still extreme fear showing up in the CNN Fear & Greed index – which is pinned at 25 [a range historically associated with contrarian reversals to the upside – particularly on secondary versus primary pullbacks (like what we are having now)].
Many of our other indicators are confirming the viewpoint that it pays to be getting some long exposure when pessimism is in this range.
Is it possible that Powell’s speech on Friday will be the spark that ignites a rally? If you charted his last 10 or so appearances they would point to a contra-indication (i.e. sell when he speaks). Friday is his opportunity to change the trend. So far the market is not betting on it, but the indicators continue to favor a reversal.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-22/aaii-sentiment-results-pessimism-persists-opportunity-abounds
Posted by Richard640
@ 13:02 on August 22, 2019
ssssssss
Posted by ipso facto
@ 10:42 on August 22, 2019
Inslee drops out of 2020 presidential race, will seek third term as governor
Posted by ipso facto
@ 10:36 on August 22, 2019
Posted by ipso facto
@ 10:32 on August 22, 2019
Posted by Richard640
@ 10:18 on August 22, 2019
Recession Alarm: US Manufacturing PMI Unexpectedly Crashes Into Contraction With Lowest Print In 10 Years
With all eyes focused squarely on Germany’s dismal PMI prints, which have been in contraction for over half a year, the investing public forgot that the US economy is similarly slowing down. And moments ago it got a jarring reminder when Markit reported that the US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly tumbled into contraction territory, down from 50.4 last month, and badly missing expectations of a 50.5 rebound. This was the first print below the 50.0 expansion threshold for the first time since September 2009.
But wait, there’s more, because whereas until now the US services segment appeared immune to the slowdown in US manufacturing, in August the service PMI tumbled to 50.9, down from 53.0 in July, matching the lowest print in at least 3 years, and well below the 52.8 consensus expectation. According to Markit, subdued demand conditions continued to act as a brake on growth, with the latest rise in new work the slowest since March 2016. This contributed to a decline in backlogs of work for the first time in 2019 to date.
Meanwhile, business expectations among service providers for the next 12 months eased in August and were the lowest since this index began nearly a decade ago.
Posted by Richard640
@ 10:11 on August 22, 2019
FED rate. futures. are. pricing. in. a. 90% probability of a 1/4 pt. rate cut….
BIG NEWS
The. 10 yr T-note has gone green and the. 30. yr note is almost. green…coming back from big losses…which mens yields are coming back down…the loss in the $ is accelerating…down .194…I GUESS THE market doesn’t believe the FED. is gonna be so hawkish as per the minutes yesterday….since the $. and bonds turned, the Cartel has come back in and is trying to send gold back down…is todays hit in honor of the. Friday Powell speech…like. before a monthly jobs report?
Posted by Richard640
@ 9:51 on August 22, 2019
Elmer Puddpuller says….
Posted by treefrog
@ 9:47 on August 22, 2019
actually, the fifteen/seventeen “support” is a little spongy. gold seems to dip a little into the fourteen-nineties, but – so far – has rebounded. as i type, gold has regained fifteen. here’s hoping this continues.
building a base for a labor day rally? we can hope.
Posted by ipso facto
@ 9:38 on August 22, 2019
Thanks Buygold. I agree with you. Beyond the question of whether or not we should intervene there’s the question of our capabilities. How many lives and treasure are we going to waste intervening in all these different countries? How many people are we going to cause to be killed? A year after we leave Afghanistan it’ll be like we were never there. Venezuela would be the same sort of morass. I think the founding fathers had it right when they said we shouldn’t involve ourselves in other country’s conflicts.
Cheers
Posted by Buygold
@ 9:32 on August 22, 2019
No major waterfall. Treefrog mentioned yesterday that $1500 and $17 almost acting like support.
Go figure, gold and silver almost never have support… 🙂
Posted by Buygold
@ 8:54 on August 22, 2019
A couple of weeks ago we ran into a gal from Venezuela at a business conference and she was telling us about how rough it was on her family. Her dad was an engineer and always fairly wealthy, but now that the currency has crashed he’s crashed with it. Really sad.
She wanted the U.S. to intervene because “we are always intervening for the good of other countries” I asked her what we could do, does she want us to send our military in to overthrow Maduro? Without hesitation she said yes and wondered why we hadn’t done it already. She was adamant about it.
Course, I don’t really agree because I’m sick of stepping into others’ wars, but I just listened and said nothing.
Can’t really imagine the struggle for the people in Venezuela. People think it can’t happen here. Maybe not, but if her father had held gold it would have countered the crash in their currency.
Posted by Buygold
@ 8:27 on August 22, 2019
Seems like this is sort of the usual game of putting pressure on the metals prior to anything the Fed comes out with.
As you say, USD not doing much but rates are jumping a bit.
We probably could be getting hit worse and still might.
No manipulation here. 🙂
Posted by Richard640
@ 8:15 on August 22, 2019
OPEN
Last Updated: Aug 22, 2019 at 8:01 a.m. EDTDelayed quote
98.32 +0.03 [+.02%]
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Last nite. at. 6pm the DOW opened. up 90 pts–this morning it was down 70 pts–they also turned yields which were down…very active management going on…
Just looking at the pre-mkt PM stocks…all down but not too bad…so far…
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 7:55 on August 22, 2019
“JOB GROWTH REDUCED BY 501,000“
And stock futures are up and gold is down.
Well, at least the markets aren’t rigged.
Chuckle
Posted by Buygold
@ 6:49 on August 22, 2019
Sad, but true. We’ll need some dovish rhetoric in order to save $1500 and $17
May the Fed be our friend….
Posted by Maya
@ 5:34 on August 22, 2019
Posted by treefrog
@ 22:15 on August 21, 2019
…still holding, maybe that’s the new base. we can hope.
Posted by ipso facto
@ 21:44 on August 21, 2019
Posted by commish
@ 20:42 on August 21, 2019
Posted by Richard640
@ 18:01 on August 21, 2019
Aug 21, 2019 10:42 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy had 501,000 fewer jobs in March 2019 than previously reported, government revisions show, suggesting that hiring was not as strong in the past year as it seemed. Hiring was weaker in retail, restaurants and hotels. The annual revision is much larger than is typically the case. The preliminary revision in 2018, for example, was just 43,000. Every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its figures based on unemployment data that nearly all employers are required to file with the states. The current revision is one of the largest ever.
*********************************************************************************
Gold has made quite the advance over the past three months. Basically that advance has been made without any help from a weakening dollar or a lasting Fear Trade, which kicks in every now and then. This makes the move in gold that much more impressive. Should both of those factors go into high gear, the momentum shift into gold and silver by even more new buyers ought to be awesome. As is, continuing lower interest rates and the need for further monetary stimulus around the world is propelling the gold price.
Posted by Richard640
@ 17:29 on August 21, 2019
all u.s. and world debt and deficit problems are magically solved?? If the 10 yr t-note. yield rises from 1.5% to 1.75% or 2%…people should panic out of gold and into stocks, bonds or other paper…? The municipal-state-and federal debt. and deficit spending will still be a problem…
It’s 5:515 and e-trading in gold is closed for 45 minutes until the night session…with yields up a wee bit and ditto the dollar at days. end…gold is only dowm 3.10…not bad at all…considering that the FED statement. was hawkish…next if Friday and Jackson Hole…Powell. may not. be. super dovish on friday buy I doubt. he’d. be as. hawkish as. today. sounded
Hopefully the Cartel won’t be able to bring gold in by morning down 15 or. 20…
Posted by Buygold
@ 15:20 on August 21, 2019
things have deteriorated. Some things never change.
Rates and USD moving up, SM moving up as usual, pm’s also moving down as usual.
Bummer, thought we were seeing something different today.
Posted by Buygold
@ 14:54 on August 21, 2019
We’ve seen worse, but hey I’m used to extreme meltdowns.
Posted by Maddog
@ 14:46 on August 21, 2019
Dollar catches bid, Bonds ease and PM’s lent on …shock horror no SM bid ?????
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