Loading ...ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: The homeward turn
I like what this guy is sa==The neutral nominal Fed Funds rate much lower this year to under 1.4%
[short term this won’t help gold-short term the only rescue possibility is the jobs report]
By Peter Chatwell, head of rates at Mizuho
The phrase “mid-cycle adjustment” sent shudders through risk markets yesterday, during Powell’s press conference. Mid cycle! When corporate debt to GDP is at extremes, earnings growth slowing, and the US manufacturing sector close to contraction, this really does not look mid-cycle to us.
By delivering a 25bp insurance cut, the Fed actually tightened financial conditions for Main Street US, making subsequent easing more likely. The march higher of the USD is the main problem the Fed has to deal with. This has pushed our estimate of the neutral nominal Fed Funds rate much lower this year to under 1.4% and, with yesterday’s move, it could well fall further.
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The Fed had many opportunities to reduce market expectations for an easing cycle, but did not take them. In so doing they have repeated the December 2018 hike error, wasting ammunition, and long term US rates will rightly continue to fall from here. For the first time under Trump’s leadership, we see value in long end Treasuries here, as a Fed policy-error trade (for example as a 2s30s flattener)
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R6
Never know but generally eco data good or bad isn’t much help to pm’s.
A little hard for me to believe that gold’s surge above $1400 was all about a .25 rate cut or future rate cuts. Bonds have done the cutting for months.
I’d still point to gold’s performance against the USD strength.
At some point the USD is going to reverse course with a vengeance and gold should really run. Have no clue when that will happen though. The rest of the world seems perfectly content to have a strong USD to balance against tariffs and kill our exports.
Great day for the scum
Had to be away ystdy due to a must attend party, but watched a bit from a distance…..The action stank of a leak, as PM’s were offered all day infront of the announcement, the SM was weak as well and the Dollar bid……so Fall st must have cleaned up and that’s why they have their man Powell in the hot seat.
Great call Samb….tks.
Now for a great weekend of non stop parties out in the Hamptons, the scum will want Ag below 16 and Au below 1400…if they get that, they’ll need bulldozers to line up all that coke and drain pipes to snort it with.
Buygold-I agree 100%–I. was simply pointing out the JNUG RSI for the record…I don’t expect
RSIs to be golds salvation–they went to extremes of 85-90…they can go down to 20-30 too…
Stocks look shaky but they are green…gold. is not so resilient for now…lets see if the ISM report can help
- Manufacturing PMI predicted for a modest rise
- Trade, global slowdown undermining confidence
- US economic growth may help restore sentiment
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will issue its purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector for July on Thursday August 1st at 14:00 GMT, 10:00 EDT
Forecast
The purchasing managers’ index is expected to move to 52.0 in July from 51.7 in June. The prices index will increase to 49.6 from 47.9. The employment index is projected to fall to 53.4 in July from 54.5. The new orders index was 50.0 in June down from 52.7 the prior month.
US Manufacturing: Two good years
The heady days for the factory sector from mid-2017 to the first quarter of 2019 which saw some of the best sentiment reading in 20 years and the strongest hiring in a generation, have turned circumspect as executives measure the impact of the trade dispute with China, Brexit and other trials of the global economy.
| Thursday Aug-01 | Construction Spending ISM Mfg Index Motor Vehicle Sales |
| Friday Aug-02 | Monthly Employment Report Trade Balance Factory Orders |
Morning R6
Absolutely nothing to stop the USD right now – too strong.
A lot of gaps in the shares were filled the last few days, but when these things go down, technicals rarely matter – nor do RSI’s
Going to need a “Hail Mary” rally today or this is going to get ugly – again.
JNUG a buy. if. u. believe in RSIs…
Funny thing is that JNUG is a buy now [but I ain’t. buying]…cause in a bull market an RSI of about 50 is about all yer gonna get on a pullback and JNUG went–quickly–from an RSI of 85-90 to 51 as I write…and lower once trading starts if the pre-mkt. loss holds–note that JNUG bottomed twice-on about June 10th and July. 1st from 50 RSIs
The. FED better get speakers. out there back peddling asap–stocks look. shaky and the $ keeps rising
Why do I think that a weak jobs report on Friday won’t help PMs?….silver is a disaster…I’ll have to close. out my AUY trade on the open…should be a break even…it looks like the Cartel has a choke hold on gold and they’re not gonna let go so easily…despite the 172 reasons gold should keep going. up…
Tulsi… my homegirl
I love watching her efforts to upset the Demo Applecart. I’m not a Dem, but she sounds like a ‘sane democrat’…. or is that an Oxymoron?
Tulsi Gabbard asked Harris some serious questions about her recent carrear as a prosecutor encluding holding evidence that would of exonerated a prisoner till they made her and keeping people in prison longer than they should of to use as slave labor. She probably didn’t know they were railroading people and creating longer sentences as well. The people here shot down building of new prisons years ago because they knew what would happen.
Harris started to sweat that question saying she was proud of it but wouldn’t answer the question.