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That might be the right play. It felt toppy to me today too. Just before it blew up again.

Whatever down move we get will be violent and short IMHO. Then it will re-launch.

I felt the same way when he bought it too. After years of social media suppressing the truth, and any social media that dared to expose it coming under very heavy cancellation fire, it seemed to me to be finally a glimmer of light. A lefty acquaintance insisted (gleefully) that Musk could never make a profit out of the $44bn purchase but that just exposes the left’s inability to understand Musk. He didn’t care if it made a profit, or not. He bought it for fun, a concept unknown to lefties. To stick one up the deep state establishment social media controllers.

A miracle that he was allowed to buy it.

Silver coins. Mrs F and I were discussing them this week. She wanted to know why we have a sack of old silver coins in the wardrobe. I said because we couldn’t store them in the attic as they were too heavy for the floorboards. When she’d finished hitting me with the cushion, I explained that they were all 50% silver, and that the sixpence, for example, was now worth AU$3.50, and that as well as being a good investment, if we did have a total currency collapse they are small enough to be used for grocery or fuel purchases.

Cars. Sigh. We have three too, and Mrs. F can’t drive anymore. But there’s a nice 1979 Mercedes 300D for sale, and a TR6 (TR5 is totally out of range) and did you know that cars are not subject to capital gains tax?

Re Silver $ 979…Tks for that….I was just wondering how the prices compared to housing….So that ain’t so silly and just goes to show how depressed prices still are…..and they are still playing those games…..

Re Cars…..I would love a Camaro…if all this works out…i may yet buy one…..but I already have 3 cars, plus my wifes………

They’re in close, but it feels a bit toppy here. I was telling a friend yesterday I was all bulled up, And when I feel invincible, that’s when I get the puts out. I’m channeling my inner Wanka and I need a new pair of fuzzy slippers. I think I wanna follow Soee’s lead and short Bitcoin too. That shite is wobbling if you ask me. We hit all of my Bros price objectives in silver so that’s why I have conviction. I don’t have a lot, but insurance is always worth it. I also feel like putting a collar on WPM. If they take my money, so be it. But I win if they gut punch me, it won’t hurt as much at least. CAT looks nose bleed high too. I grew up in Peoria and have never seen CAT rip so hard.

that is 100 million Oz or 12 % of annual production…..someone is still short and still selling…….just unreal…

https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/silver-maintains-breakout-despite

Also Mining stocks, not just PM shares , are lowest percentage of Global equities since 1900 !!!!!!

Also GDX has been being dumped since early 2024 down by 33 % ….so no real new buying yet !!!!!!

He reckons the shares are going to catch up soon to the metal……

https://sprott.com/insights/dips-the-rx-for-acrophobia/?utm_source=insights&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sprott-gold-report

Houses in my area were 25,000 to $40,000. If you had a $1,000 face value of junk silver coins, it was worth $35,000, which was $48.95/oz. There are 715 ounces of Silver in a $1,000 face value bag.

Today the houses in my area average about $700,000. So a $1,000 silver bag would need to be $700,000 divided by 715 ounces in a bag, spot So today, for Silver to match 1980’s high, it would have to be $979 for one ounce of Silver.

I know, that sounds crazy, but at the moment, one of the two, houses at $700k and Silver at $52, one of the two are lying. Maybe houses will come down as Silver goes up.

P.S. house prices were held down back then. They were about $40,000 in 1968 and still around $40,000 around 1980, because the bozo bankers raised the interest rates to 21% during the 1970s. To hold gold and silver prices down as much as possible.

The fed held the Dow down too, the Dow stared under 1000 from the 1968 peak until June 1982 the Dow was still under 1000 at 796. Thats when I got a mailgram from James Dines, to sell all inflation related assets and to go into the Dow at 796, a perfect call on his part.

He also stated or recommended, he’s never seen anything like this, but we can buy 30 year gov’t Bonds paying 16% for 30 years with no call back provision.  Another perfect call, as rates dropped after that, so the bond prices gained value as the rates dropped.

Naturally it all started because the US Gov’t STOPPED backing the US Dollar with Gold at $34/oz because the natural market price was around $140/oz. We cut off the foreign countries like Europe from stealing out gold on the cheap.

But after 1971, they proceeded to take away our manufacturing jobs instead of our gold. So they finally gave us permission to own gold again. In 1971. I also remember being in the back of a gold and Silver redemption store. There were numerous buckets of Silver coins. I asked the owner, (of seven stores) where is all this silver going?

He said it was going to the docks in Manhattan to be shipped overseas. Again the foreigners were robbing the dumb ass USA again. My son and my brother were selling classic muscle cars, and several of them were shipped overseas too.

They just kept robbing us, that’s when the stealing started getting worse, 1971. All my dumb ass friends and relatives even started buying imported cars, of witch was ANOTHER drain of USA wealth. But not me, I only buy Chevy or GMC cars to this day.

Silver came storming back after the little round of algo selling.

SLV was up $.65, now up $1.05.

SM has come back too though.

I have a couple of old pinky rings that I wanted to have re-sized larger, so I took them into the local jeweler. These are 14K gold rings, but nothing special about them.

So, the girl takes them in the back to the jeweler to get the price. She comes out and proceeds to tell me that gold is $4k and has gotten expensive and wants to charge me $400 for one of the rings and $250 for the other.

I bet I didn’t pay $400 for BOTH of those rings to start with. I don’t know the process, maybe they have to add a small amount of gold to make them bigger, I don’t know. Anyhoo, I told her that was ridiculous and that I would be embarrassed to give me a price like that for two cheap rings.

Crazy times.

I know there’s been rumblings about European banks for quite some time now. Regardless, all the banks are interconnected with each other through derivatives, so I guess it doesn’t matter. Then they’ll come in with the CBDC to save us all.

Some algo selling a few minutes ago when the SM took a dive. At some point our pm’s are going to get tired.

Charles Nenner says lookout at month end.

I would think market rates will diverge from administered rates again at Fed time … and the banks might be in trouble.

Cheers

No margin for sure. At some point we’re going to get whacked but hard to know when. They’ve done some probing today but the shares aren’t buying it, although $53 seems to be a line in the sand.

$500 silver seems like a stretch, hard to see that for me.

I’m just enjoying the ride for now. Didn’t think I’d see it in my lifetime.

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1978492349589135708

Yes earnings should be spectacular and show the shares are still cheap.

Maddog has a good chart showing the shares against gold is still in the basement but threatening to breakout.

The bankers are a desperate lot … so it would not surprise me if they can engineer a bit of a selloff back below $50 one more time … they will smash the lease rates and/or increase margins when the bullion from abroad is on tap … but after that hang on to your cojones for a wild ride to triple digits.

Of course, $50 may never be seen again.

So trade this at your own risk.

That said … bitcon looks like it’s getting ready for a railing … and it will take tech with it … and at some point liquidity concerns should also impact the metals as well.

So … no margin on my toast please.

I’m on a diet and looking to trim a bit.

Chuckle

that our “leaders” in the past 10 or 20 years would have given some thought as to how important rare earths are and made some provisions for it’s production here.

Why I’m Betting on a 10x Move in Silver

Now I want to talk about an exciting prospect that I firmly believe in and am personally investing in. I expect silver to surge at least tenfold from its current price, which would mean a move from around $52 an ounce today to at least $500 an ounce.

To understand this setup, let’s start by looking at the long-term price chart of silver going all the way back to the 1960s. Next, I want to draw your attention to the critical $50 level, which marked the peaks of the last two major silver bull markets in 1980 and 2011, both of which were followed by significant declines.

But a major development is happening as we speak as silver finally breaks above the all-important $50 psychological level. This signals the start of a powerful new secular bull market, which typically lasts for a decade or more. That indicates silver still has a long way to run.

With silver now trading above $50, an all-time high, no one who has ever purchased silver is currently sitting on a loss.

I believe this breakout is about to spark a major shift in investor sentiment toward silver, which has long been viewed as a lagging and underperforming asset compared to flashier alternatives like high-flying tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Many of the new investors that are about to enter the silver market will come from the younger generations that aren’t burdened by the past disappointments of 1980 and 2011 that shaped the views of older, battle-weary silver investors.

Although investment demand for silver has been subdued over the past decade, I expect it to increase significantly as the bull market continues to strengthen. U.S. silver ETFs, in particular, have only recently started accumulating silver more actively.

For example, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest U.S. silver ETF, increased its physical holdings from 417.5 million ounces to 496.53 million ounces over the past two years. That 19% rise is modest compared to the 160% surge in silver prices over the same period. I believe that gap will close soon, driving silver prices much higher.

There are many reasons why I expect silver to surge from here rather than fall from the $50 level as it did in 1980 and 2011. One key reason is that silver remains far cheaper in real terms today compared to those past peaks when measured against a wide range of benchmarks. This indicates that silver still has substantial room to rise.

To further reinforce my point above, I also want to show you the ratio of silver to the U.S. M2 money supply, indexed to 100. This may be an even more accurate measure of inflation than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used to create the previous chart. After all, the root cause of inflation is growth in the money supply itself. As Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize–winning economist, famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

This chart shows that although silver is approaching the same nominal price of $50, its real-world price is much lower than it was in 1980 and 2011. For example, in 1980 the ratio was 1,038, in 2011 it was 176, and now it is just 66. I see this as clear evidence that, despite its recent gains, silver’s bull market is nowhere near being long in the tooth.

Another eye-opening metric that confirms silver is still extremely cheap is the ratio of silver to the U.S. national debt, which now stands at $37.8 trillion and is growing at an alarming pace of $1 trillion every 100 days with no signs of slowing. This is an important metric because it shows whether the price of silver has kept pace with the growth of the national debt, and the answer is clearly no.

The chart, indexed to 100, shows that this ratio was 1,377 at the 1980 peak, 87 at the 2011 peak, and only 33 today. This indicates that silver has substantial room to catch up to the expanding national debt. In that context, $52 silver is not expensive by any measure, and a move to $500 an ounce is far from inconceivable.

Next let’s move on to another metric that confirms that silver is still much cheaper today than it was at the peaks in 1980 and 2011, despite its recent gains. This time, we will look at the silver-to-gold ratio, which is a useful way to determine whether silver is undervalued or overvalued relative to gold, the leading benchmark in the precious metals market.

While gold has always been more expensive than silver throughout history, the gap between them has varied significantly. At the 1980 peak, silver was 6.7% of the price of gold. At the 2011 peak, it was 3.3%. But now, silver is just 1.2% of gold’s price, which is far below historical levels.

This indicates that silver is extremely cheap by historical standards and still has substantial room for its bull market to continue.

Now let’s get to the core reason why I believe silver will surge at least tenfold from here, reaching $500 an ounce or more. And that reason is the powerful chart pattern silver has been forming over the past six decades, known as a cup and handle.

Because of the magnitude of that pattern in both duration and scale, it indicates that silver is set to rise by a massive amount to match its proportions.

The $50 resistance level marked the top of that pattern, and as of this week, silver is finally breaking above it. This breakout signals the start of what will be the largest bull market in silver’s history. It is a rare opportunity that no investor should overlook. I’m personally heavily invested in both physical silver and silver mining shares, which are leveraged to the price of silver.

And if you think a tenfold surge in the price of silver from here sounds far-fetched, it’s really not. There are several reasons for this, starting with how undervalued silver remains. But more importantly, we are facing a runaway global debt crisis. As you can see in the chart below, global debt has soared from just $25 trillion thirty years ago to an astounding $250 trillion today.

Unfortunately, this number is poised to rise even more sharply from here, approaching a near-vertical trajectory. This kind of exponential debt growth is a hallmark of the final stages of fiat or paper currency systems, and will cause a massive global financial and monetary crisis that will send silver into the stratosphere. In that scenario, $500 an ounce is not only realistic, it could prove conservative once the coming hyperinflationary storm fully takes hold.

To summarize, I’m extremely excited about silver’s prospects over the next five to ten years. As of this week, silver is beginning its most powerful bull market yet.

I’ve made my case with multiple factors, including how undervalued silver remains by various measures, the anticipated influx of capital from U.S. ETFs, the accelerating global debt crisis, and the extremely promising technical setup implied by the six-decade-long cup and handle chart pattern.

At this point, I believe everyone should own at least some silver—even if it’s just a few ounces.

If you enjoyed this report, it’s just a small preview of the kind of content you’ll receive as a paid subscriber to my bestselling newsletter, The Bubble Bubble Report.

This content has resonated strongly with savvy investors, helping this newsletter grow into one of the most respected precious metals and commodities publications worldwide, with thousands of paid subscribers.

The way things looked earlier, I thought maybe the Crimex was going to get us, but now it doesn’t look like it. Almost looks like silver has a real chance of busting $53 again now that gold has broken $4200.

Interesting about the price of the shares and only 8% vs. the avg. between 1980 – 2008. I keep thinking they are way overbought – and they are technically – but fundamentally I think they are still way cheap, even with the run they’ve had.

Earnings start coming out next week with NEM on the 23rd and they should be great, but next quarter they’ll be even better. The cost of pulling metal out of the ground shouldn’t be increasing too much, if at all. The silver shares earnings are going to blow the roof off the place.

From the 1980s through the 2008 financial crisis, the XAU Index maintained a consistent relationship with gold, averaging between 17-35% of gold’s value. Today its still under 8%!

H/T Michael Oliver of MSA for chart

For over three decades, from the 1970s through the 2008 financial crisis, the XAU Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index maintained a consistent relationship with gold, averaging between 17% and 35% of gold’s value.

This ratio was as reliable as gravity; when gold moved, miners moved proportionally, often with explosive leverage to the upside. Then 2008 changed everything. The XAU/Gold ratio collapsed to a historically unprecedented 5-8% range and has remained trapped there for over 15 years.

Even with the recent surge in mining stocks, the ratio hasn’t exceeded 8%. But history suggests this compression is temporary.

When the ratio finally breaks back into its historical 17-35% channel, mining stocks won’t just double; they could explode 300-400% as decades of undervaluation unwind in a violent mean reversion.

The Historical Relationship That Defined Precious Metals Investing

From the late 1970s through 2008, the relationship between the gold and silver miners vs. gold was remarkably consistent. The XAU Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, which tracks the performance of companies in the gold and silver mining industry, maintained a ratio between 17% and 35% of gold’s price. This wasn’t a coincidence; it reflected the fundamental economics of gold and silver mining.

The math was straightforward and the index kept pace with gold’s ascent and descent. This relationship held through multiple bull and bear markets, economic cycles, and geopolitical crises. It was the bedrock assumption of precious metals investing: miners provided leveraged exposure to gold with predictable parameters.

The ratio wasn’t static; it oscillated within the channel. During gold bear markets, the ratio would compress toward the lower rail at 17%. During gold bull markets, it would expand toward the upper rail at 35%.

https://x.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1978210226265334029

i’m not quite as tropical as you.  i wish i could grow cocoa.

semi-tropical here in the north florida boonies.  we even got snow last winter (first in almost 30 years) but my 20′ brazos belle avocado tree produced a small crop in spite of it.

note finding some resi at halfway point

Silver kicked above $53 at some point last night, but has slipped back.

Regardless, the sector looks great again.

SM is up, dollar and rates down.

Who cares what Bitcoin is doing?