Was the US attack on Iran the right thing to do?
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Loading ...East Asian Countries Eye Russian Oil Imports Amid Global Energy Shock – The Moscow Times
Remember when Trump was worried about losing the dollar as the global reserve currency?
Once oil is traded in anything other than dollars in the west, the petrodollar dies.
I guess this wasn’t part of the neocon plan.
Thanks. I guess that would be dollar bullish initially but ultimately very bearish.
The Yen had a really strong day today.
Yeah they’re burning the candle at both ends, and we’re the candle.
Good question about a dollar shortage ( I didn’t quite understand what the context was in the the aforementioned part of the article that I posted).
I asked AI, “ why is there a dollar shortage in Asia?” I got this summary from Chat GPT:
The combination of de-dollarization efforts, currency depreciation, geopolitical tensions, and a push for local currency usage is contributing to the dollar shortage in Asia. These factors are reshaping the financial landscape and encouraging a more diversified currency system in the region.
No dollars flowing from the ME. No more petrodollars flowing into capital markets in the west.
at least a bit of short covering into the close. I’m glad silver closed above $70 and didn’t go below the recent crash low of $67.
I’d love for this to mark some kind of bottom, but I doubt it. Noticed the SM came pretty much all the way back, I wish it hadn’t and we still finished where we did.
After all this time and the move up we’ve had, how can we still have to rely on the SM for our pm’s to hold up?
deer79 – can you explain why a dollar shortage? I probably should know, but how do they find themselves short of the most plentiful currency in the world?
Hope this ends up being a great buying opportunity.
Mr. Copper – you’re right, we don’t have enough money for this war much less a WWIII
Re your: “Even 50 hr wouldn’t be enough at many places”
If we know that, why doesn’t our gov’t leaders know that? I think because low wages created more jobs as they were exporting our jobs out of the country.
Right although some of the prices are due to greed and corruption as well as low wages in some places or exorbitant in government. I always heard growing up that your rent or mortgage should be no more that one weeks paycheck. Even 50 hr wouldn’t be enough at many places.
You brought up some good points.
Re your: “You can drive another stake through the heart of the economy with those numbers”
In my view for decades of farming out all our work overseas, US businesses had to shut down, less taxes from the old profits, Which led to retarded wages, so less taxes from workers, plus more of them on welfare, and at the same time we were importing millions of people from high crime poor countries.
The USA in my area has pot holes everywhere. Plus I’m always hearing about we need affordable homes, affordable health care, etc etc etc. They NEVER say we need affordable jobs. The Minimum wage today adjusted for the 1960s, should be at least $50/hour. Even that is not so much only $2000 a week before taxes. But a higher flunky know nothing guy getting $50/hr would make all the smarter people get paid a lot more. US gov’t would not have a $39 trillion national debt now.
And if there is a WW III, there is not enough money here to pay for it.
Notice that the big legs lower in gold this week have occurred during the Asia and European session.
Which got us thinking…
As we warned earlier in the week, we are seeing strains begin to emerge in the global financial system’s plumbing.
UBS traders noted sizable moves in JPYUSD and CHFUSD X-ccy basis suggesting rising demand for dollars..
If there’s a dollar shortage, people will sell gold first.
And in case you were wondering, this is why Asia could be where the funding crisis is emerging…
Funny that we consider rates high here, but they definitely are when you have a world economy that is built for 0% rates. This dollar rally will end at some point, maybe it’s ending today. If it wasn’t pegged to the other fiat currencies it would fall through the floor. So, you’re right in the sense of “where would gold be if rates weren’t so high?”
The New Home Sales report came out today and was a huge miss 587K vs. 727K estimates. Ugly
You can drive another stake through the heart of the economy with those numbers. Add to that and Hegseth at Defense asked for another $200 Billion to prosecute the Iran war. Doesn’t sound like they’re finished yet. We can’t win a war strictly with air power. They know this, so what’s the plan? I don’t even think they have a plan, but if it’s to send in ground troops, it will be a meat grinder like Ukraine. We are not yet prepared for modern drone warfare as far as I can tell. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and they’ll claim victory and say they wiped out nuke and missile capabilities and walk away.
Regardless, the dollar is on its last decade IMHO. When it finally crashes and burns, I just hope we aren’t fighting Chinese troops on our soil.
Hopefully maddog is right and we get a little strength into the close. This was a re-test of the low in silver to the dollar, be nice if this is all she wrote, but I have my doubts, they always take this stuff lower than anyone thinks is possible.
By looking at the bond market, prices falling since 2021 meaning rates have been rising since 2021. However, Gold is still a lot higher too. Try to imagine how high Gold would be today without the higher rates.
I suspect nobody in buying, so the sellers of paper AU AG positions have to lower their limit orders to sell things. Physical investors not likely selling any at all and possibly buying more. Some PM shares people, also sitting with nice profits on miners, maybe selling the shares to buy physical.
My friend used to say, “what’s fast don’t last”. So gold went up fast, and came down fast, which also won’t last. I myself also noticed, the best performers, have the biggest declines and the biggest rebounds.
Bonds: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=BONDS&p=m
Gold: https//finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m
What’s going on there? Just technical as Mr. Copper pointed out?
Says something about the B.S. with pm’s today.
I guess if we see rates spike with the dollar down then we’ve got some problems.
As I said this is so far a 3rd wave dn in a C down…nasty fast and strong…..that said on the big picture we are still not far from the Hi’s……
Also if this is a revaluation move, then what we have seen so far is a panic sell off, once 5000 went properly……I note the selling has now stopped, lets see what happens twds the close……if it;s a revaluation move we shud see buying soon.
Cheers
I started reading the Dines Letter in 1979 until his death. He used to say “the Dow was in the sky above 1000 from 1968 to 1982” every time it got above 1000 until 1982. At that point in June 1982 the Dow was at 796 and he switched from precious metals to the Dow, an excellent call, unfortunately he called the PMs sell advice two years too late.
I read his book The Invisible Crash, where he described the invisible crash of the Dow from ’68 to ’82 where it went flat plus real estate also flat for 14 years as rates were jacked up to 21% while most other THINGS like gold silver and oil were going higher. To him, going flat for all those years was actually a net crash adjusted for inflation.
P.S. He also predicted the Dow and the Gold price would cross and it did, with the Dow and Gold both around 800. If that happens again, where would they cross?? 25,000 Dow and $25,000 Gold? Who knows?
Parts:
An avid market technician and student of investor psychology, he called himself “the original gold bug,” and liked to recount the story of how he was fired from Wall Street for recommending gold at $35 an ounce.
In 1980, The Wall Street Journal wrote, “Metals mania vindicates such economic Cassandras as James Dines, who for years have urged investment in gold as a safe hedge in an inflation-weary world.” In the same year, Barron’s noted, “James Dines’ prediction—that the price of bullion would someday cross the Dow-Jones Industrial Average—begins to look like one of the most fantastic investment calls on record.”
Over the years, Dines continued to make controversial calls that would come to fruition. Financial Sense Wealth Management notes that Dines, after a trip to China in 1977, “predicted that ‘China would dominate the 21st Century’ after Mao died; he was the first to prominently recognize the bull market in internet stocks; he predicted a ‘uranium boom’ when the metal was at $8/lb before it rose as high as $138/lb; and a proponent of rare earth metals at their proverbial rock bottom before they skyrocketed.”
Ps much safer on paper than mace.
Yep just resting in my hands. My short insurance stock just went boom.
Don’t be discouraged. The Bull is just resting for a bit. 🙂
Champagne Joshi
@JoshWalkos
This is incredibly well done.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa
@TaviCosta
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14h
This is a remarkable chart.
Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions.
Chart by
@thierryborgeat
… a must listen … listen closely … the world is in chaos and your enemies are closer than you think … expect pandemics – lockdowns – and famine to follow war …
… buckle up butter cup … decentralization will accelerate now … the old system will collapse … physical PMs are a must … prices are still low … everything else is subject to confiscation … all dips should be bought … the lower the better.
Let’s see how prices finish the week.
Spit
“Short interest” I’m not surprised!
Looks like more shock and awe to me.
These people have a big problem sourcing physical right now and they are doing their damdest to shake some loose.
Look PMs are crap … but our crap is not crap … turning the screws to screw with people’s heads.
Looks like a good spot to buy physical no matter what … they might not be Johnny on the spot here to start monetizing with abandon … but they cannot afford to let their digital world collapse or their dreams of domination go up in smoke … so when the liquidity problem hits stocks and bonds too … they will have to step in … and that time is not too far away.
Move slow and steady.
Mornin all