History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. For investors in the precious metals space, the last few weeks have been a frustrating, confusing, and exhilarating rhyme of a pattern we witnessed just last year.
Silver, the volatile, unloved, and perennially underestimated metal, has just put on a display of raw power that has left the market stunned.
In the last 30 days alone, the price has exploded by over 43%, blasting through resistance levels and leaving a trail of scorched short-sellers in its wake. As of today, silver sits around $90 an ounce, a price that seemed like a distant fantasy just a few months ago.
And yet, amidst this spectacular rally, a familiar refrain is echoing through the investor community: “What’s wrong with the miners?”
While the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is up an absolutely incredible 190% over the past year, it has conspicuously lagged this most recent, vertical leg of the silver rally and the disconnect is palpable.
It has investors on edge, questioning the validity of the move and the health of the sector. But this confusion, this lag, is not a sign of weakness. It is one of the few absolutely amazing investment opportunities left on the board today and I’m going to go into detail as to why that is so.
What the market fails to grasp is that we have seen this exact movie before, and very recently. The current setup in silver and the silver miners is a near-perfect replay of the dynamic that played out in physical gold starting in March 2024, and and the gold miners in 2025.
It’s a playbook that led to first a strong breakout of the metal with no breakout of the miners for most of 2024, which led to a 165% explosion in the GDX in the last year. It is about to happen again, likely with even more ferocity, in the silver space.
- You need to understand that playbook, the undeniable parallels, and why the silver miner catch-up trade is not a matter of if, but when.
- You need to understand why it will be one of the most profitable trades of this decade.
- You need to understand why the psychology of disbelief is what creates these opportunities.
- You need to understand the mechanics of the operating leverage that will fuel the coming explosion.
- And you need to understand the specific catalysts that will force the market to recognize the new reality.
This is not just another article about silver; it is a roadmap for capitalizing on the market’s predictable irrationality. The setup is so clear, so powerful, and so historically precedented that to ignore it is to willingly turn a blind eye to one of the most compelling investment setups we can find.
The market is offering a rare gift to the prepared investor and I am about to give you the framework to accept it. We will delve deep into the historical precedent, the psychological drivers, the financial mechanics, and the specific, near-term catalysts that make the silver miners an incredible and compelling asymmetric bet that is still left in the market today.
Governments buy metal and investors buy miners. What’s wrong with the miners? Nothing! This lag in the silver miners is a gift and the silver miners are a coiled spring ready to explode higher!
Let’s Dig Into The following:
- The gold 2024 breakout is a case study in patience to profit. To understand why the current lag in silver miners is an opportunity, not a warning sign, we must rewind the clock to March 2024. After 13 long years of brutal consolidation, gold finally broke out of a massive cup-and-handle formation, decisively clearing the ~$2,000 level and embarking on a powerful new bull market. The driver, however, was not the traditional inflation-hedge buyer or the retail investor. The catalyst for this breakout in the metal was a new, colossal, and price-insensitive force: global central banks and they don’t buy miners. Why this is the playbook, this is the precedent, and it is happening again, right now, in silver (just not with central banks)!
- There is a psychology of disbelief right now and the market has it wrong. The lag between a commodity and its producers is not a new phenomenon, but it is particularly pronounced in the precious metals sector. The reason is simple: a decade plus of pain. From the peak in 2011 to the bottom in 2015, the gold and silver miners were a house of pain. They were poorly managed, over-leveraged, and prone to destroying shareholder value. Why the market needs to see the “evidence” of higher earnings before it is willing to believe and that is our opportunity to seize!
- The reality is that governments buy metal, investors buy miners, and now it is silvers turn. The recent, breathtaking surge from around $50 to ~$90 an ounce was not driven by retail FOMO or a short squeeze in the paper markets. Just like with gold, the catalyst was a new, powerful, and price-insensitive buyer: this time is is governments. On November 6, 2025, the USGS, under the direction of President Trump’s critical minerals proclamation, officially added silver to the list of minerals deemed essential for national and economic security. This was the starting gun. China, the world’s other superpower and manufacturing engine, did not stand idly by. In mid-December, Beijing responded by banning all silver exports without a pre-approved government license. Why the dynamic is identical to the gold playbook, yet the only difference is that the silver market is much smaller and more volatile than the gold market, and the supply/demand fundamentals for silver are arguably even more bullish!
- You need to know this critical point about governments buying metals. The government buying in silver is not a one-off event; it is a long-term strategic necessity. This creates a permanent floor under the price, a backstop that de-risks the entire investment thesis. To understand why this is a permanent shift, one must grasp a critical distinction: unlike gold, which is primarily a monetary asset that is hoarded, silver is an indispensable industrial commodity that gets consumed. Why this isn’t a market operation to be timed; it’s a long-term, strategic imperative to secure a dwindling physical resource essential for 21st-century military and economic dominance!
- This backdrop sets the stage for a catch-up trade of epic proportions in the silver miners. The operating leverage in the silver mining sector is even more extreme than in the gold space. Many silver miners have all-in sustaining costs at or below $20 per ounce. At a ~$90 silver price, every single ounce they pull out of the ground is a geyser of pure profit. The Q1 2026 earnings reports for these companies will be nothing short of breathtaking. Why the profits in the silver mining sector are about to become so large, so undeniable, that they will create a gravitational pull that will suck in capital from every corner of the market!
- And the lag is the opportunity for us but it won’t last long. The frustration among silver investors today is really a gift for those with the conviction of the thesis and the confidence and resources to act upon it. Living natural resources legend Rick Rule is one who is taking advantage of this lag as he recently said on my Metals and Miners podcast that he is selling some of his physical silver and redirecting 80% of the proceeds into silver miners. Rick gets it! But we don’t have to have Rick’s resources to benefit from this. Why the disbelief that plagued the gold miners in 2024 is the same disbelief that is holding back the silver miners today. The gold miner trade was the warm-up act. The silver miner trade is the main event. The setup is the same, but the potential is even greater!
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