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The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Liquidity in Japan’s government bond market is collapsing:
The JGB Liquidity Index jumped to 9.5 points on Tuesday, indicating the worst liquidity conditions on record.
This index has DOUBLED over the last 12 months.
Conditions in the $7.6 trillion bond market have deteriorated materially since 2022, as bond yields have experienced one of the most dramatic increases in history.
This comes as the Bank of Japan has significantly reduced its bond purchases, while Japanese life insurers have sold a record amount.
Meanwhile, foreign investors now reflect ~65% of monthly cash bond transactions, up from just 12% in 2009.
These investors have much shorter holding periods than traditional domestic buyers, increasing volatility.
Japan’s bond market is on the edge of a full-blown liquidity crisis.
In just 56 hours, 16 Chinese military transport aircraft have landed in Iran marking the largest Chinese airlift to the country in such a short timeframe.
China is openly backing Iran.
What are they preparing for? The world can only speculate. 👀✈️
Good call on plat, you’ve been on it for a while. I think RNO bought some too back around $1300.
PM shares firming in pre market.
Can feel that we’re about at the point where buyers are starting to line up. I’m sure a lot of them have been waiting for the dip that never materializes for more than a day.
remember the Israeli’s took out most of their senior people and way further down the line and there is no way they have replaced them, let alone with experience…..reports from inside say foreign troops are doing the dirty work.
whether them or the LBMA, they’ve managed to turn gold south for nearly $30, trying to hold $4900. Silver is still up $1.75 and hanging onto $98, but they’ve bled half the gains out of it as well.
PM shares are mixed but mostly up from what I watch. What’s interesting is that the big ETF’s GDX and GDXJ are being pushed down more than their components.
Dollar is flat. Rates flat. Bitcoin flat. Oil down. SM down slightly.
Looks like their intent is to keep things tame going into the weekend if they can. Although it’s going to take some work to get silver down. Shanghai pm fix was $111.40.
With the bombing raid there was nothing the Iranians could do. But the navy is a different matter. And Saddam, who did not have WMD or ballistic missiles, was a secular leader. If the mullahs truly believe their own mantras, then going out in a blaze of glory against the great satan will be preferable to exile.
Re Armada …it looks like he is building up a force that will terrify the the Regime, it is apparently as big or bigger than the one used in the Iraq war, minus the Tanks.
There is massive unrest in the country, only being kept partially under control by serious brutality…..the Guess is he will give the Regime one last chance to get out, or take ’em down…the fear is they may try to unleash everything onto Israel and US assets , to over come their missile defences in one final attack…..whatever happens the Regime is finished…..
You might be right, their miners are good but management is greedy and messed up. Good group of shares. I thought HL might take A break today but nope. Its like you have to ignore charting right now and focus more on fundamentals plus the phyzz charts.
I will let you know if I find out anything. Supposedly CDE is buying NGD and lately they move together. I might buy some NGD. I started buying CDE around 2011 and have 8200 shares and I’m up 109% on all of it.. The $316/sh price I think went up as they probably reverse split it a bunch of times as it kept dropping. Below are the main shares I have.
Why not use bombers again? Iran appears to have penetrated Israel’s David’s Sling and Arrow anti ballistic missile defences ostensibly with its Fattah-2 hypersonic missile. If Arrow can’t stop them, an aircraft carrier is a sitting duck. The implications of Iran sinking a carrier don’t bear thinking about.
That’s good idea and thing to remember to know what you want a head of time and not get caught up in thinking about the fiat price without a idea what you’d trade it for. That said 5000 tonight !!!! Wow !!!!!
That’s my plan in a nutshell. When other good assets get cheap compared to phyzz, that’s when I’ll think about getting out. This time, I think we’re a ways away from that point unless things unravel really fast.
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