Loading ...Richard640
Good to see that a few recognise how wrong the Odds are…Hellary is 8/1 ON in some places, that is landslide odds, though he misses the what happened in Brexit, it wasn’t the odds being wrong, just weight of money that didn’t care about loseing, just changeing perceptions….I’m sure the same is going on in your election.
How much is a prime time TV add….put that money on Hellary to win and it would shift the odds massively and have a greater and longer effect.
Drowning In Debt: 35% Of Americans Have Debt That Is At Least 180 Days Past Due
More than a third of all Americans can’t pay their debts. I don’t know about you, but to me that is a shocking figure. As you will see below, 35 percent of the people living in this country have debt in collections. When a debt is in collections, it is at least 180 days past due. And this is happening during the “economic recovery” that the mainstream media keeps touting, although the truth is that Barack Obama is going to be the only president in United States history to never have a single year when the economy grew by at least 3 percent. But at least things are fairly stable for the moment, and if this many Americans are having trouble paying their bills right now, what are things going to look like when the economy becomes extremely unstable once again.
Maddog–this one’s for u
Statistician Warn Of “Systemic Mainstream Misinformation” In Poll Data
by Tyler Durden
Oct 15, 2016 9:00 PM
Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,
Antagonism isn’t perpetual
If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming. It’s likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day. The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage. We’ve discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton’s runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here).
Of course that’s a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump’s popular vote could remain in the 40’s% was only priced at 1:6 odds. Nate Silver’s 538 site also reflected this, as shown below. But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation.
Incidentally, today’s betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days. And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been. This article isn’t merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time. And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation? In particular, we’ll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary. How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?
Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth. The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter. Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible. Right… Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.
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The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn’t like what he or she hears. Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes. And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won. This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these “scientific” polls. We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.
Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog). For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record. These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter. Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders. This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties). And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump.
Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to “perceived” favorability or social desirability (it’s been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it’s unclear how much additional bias comes from that. But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points. Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls. The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person. But this does not negate the data point altogether. Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?
The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote. In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels. It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances. And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle. This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.
Another note is that you should be wary of taking too seriously the political advice of people who so recently badly errored in the Primary elections! This is not to cast a spotlight on any one individual, since the entire field of data journalism just saw a catastrophic result over the past year. But it’s clear from the polling and the prediction betting market levels that the grave lessons from the past have not yet been learned. This summer’s Brexit vote was just another example of election-eve overconfidence by pollsters and bookies. But stateside we do see the promotion of false confidence on preposterous polling statistics. The media ratings pursuit must inherent some blame, since news demands easily digestible insight that crookedly beguiles their patrons. And if we expose the overshadowing uncertainty surrounding these election predictions, then no one would venture into paying further attention. Even more reason for you to pay some attention to the outlier polls, especially this year!
silverngold
Of course that seems to be part of the problem. The eagerness to embrace computer voting is a symptom of the desire to skew the results. It seems no one in charge has an interest in an honest count. I hope this is an incorrect view.
ipso facto @ 21:18 Ever consider that the political parties of the USA do not want any built in safeguards?
The criminal elite running America have perfected their crooked polls, elections, and voting machine fraud so are not about to upset the applecart by exposing that the whole thing is rigged. I hope somebody has the balls to step up and prove the fraud by showing how it is being done. Trump may get 90% of the votes but the system is rigged so the final tally will show Hillary with 90% unless a public outcry is made exposing how they have been doing the cheating, and safeguards need to be put in place prior to the election.
Of course they would never be stupid enough to cheat to that extreme but unless this is exposed Hillary will probably win by a slight majority, like maybe 51% to convince the public what a close race it was….just like Bush and Gore.
The USA doesn’t even use Banana Republic technology like dipping voters fingers in ink
Probably there’d be complaints about how hard it is to get the ink off. Ick Dirty! OOH where’s my safe place?
Richard640 @ 18:56 There are a couple major differences since Truman
Two that come to mind are:
(1) it is not legal to ask for ID from a voter, at least in some states, or for that matter, to register to vote. That leaves the door open to illegals, and others of low moral character, to go from precinct to precinct and vote numerous times…..and it wouldn’t surprise me if Hillary will pay out $Millions for this to happen.
(2) Electronic voting machines did not exist back with Truman, nor central computers that tabulate the precinct votes. I have seen demonstrated how easy it is for one of these central computers to take the total votes and simply reverse to numbers, and it cannot be detected . And further, I have seen the voting machines being chipped to reverse the votes so you vote for candidate x and the machine records the vote as for candidate y.
It bothers me that there is not a public outcry about this!! Why not??
silverngold @ 17:30 on October 15, 2016
Refugees are a TOOL of the Socialists just like the Romanian children were used as a tool by the Eastern Europe Communists to extract money from the West .Human exploitation for their ends is their usual MO .
Its viewed as a weakness by communists like SOROS and Clintons and they will continue to start WARS so they can exploit the Wests resources knowing that Human suffering is anathema to the West and is its vulnerability .!
Commish excellent, but I see you and raise you one – Really powerful
Thanks famous actors….you dirty shitbags
Never fear, Richard’s here!!! Send this to all yer friends=TIA
1948=TRUMP WILL WIN LIKE TRUMAN DID=In the days preceding the vote, political analysts and polls were so behind Dewey
Truman defeats Dewey
In the greatest upset in presidential election history, Democratic incumbent Harry S. Truman defeats his Republican challenger, Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, by just over two million popular votes. In the days preceding the vote, political analysts and polls were so behind Dewey that on election night, long before all the votes were counted, the Chicago Tribune published an early edition with the banner headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.”
Harry Truman was thrust into the presidency by Franklin D. Roosevelt’s death in 1945. Approaching the 1948 presidential election, he seemed to stand a slim chance of retaining the White House. Despite his effective leadership at the end of World War II and sound vision in the confused postwar world, many voters still viewed Truman as an ineffectual shadow of his four-term predecessor. He also antagonized Southern Democrats with his civil rights initiatives. Most were sure that Dewey would take the White House.
In the last weeks before the election, Truman embarked on a “whistle-stop” campaign across the United States in defiance of his consistently poor showings in the polls. He traveled to America’s cities and towns, fighting to win over undecided voters by portraying himself as an outsider contending with a “do-nothing” Congress. Truman, a one-time farmer who was elevated to the pinnacle of American politics because of his reputation for honesty and integrity, won the nation’s affection, and he narrowly won a second term.
The Clintons Americas version of Ceaucescus
A recently hacked email of John Podesta finds him saying “she (Hillary) has begun to hate everyday Americans”. No doubt the same feelings were voiced by Nicolas Ceaucescu. It turned out the feeling was mutual……All Socialists will end up the same they cannot isolate themselves .The Ceaucescus were so bad they claimed the children belonged to the STATE and they SOLD them for adoption to US citizens for $10,000 each when they wanted MORE money .There view of Americans was they are Stupid ! Money was important,and Romanian children were white, desirable easily adoptable and were a renewable resource to be exploited by the State. THATS a SOCIALIST Clinton private view ,not their public view.As we can easliy see money is so important to the Clintons ,nothing is too vile its a means(corruption) to a ends (money).
Contrast that to the Trumps that create something useful and beautiful to their get to their ends .
HOW.. you do it makes a big difference ! One has CLASS the other NONE !
Non media polls
will be telling the truth soon. Those joined at the hip with media companies will continue to lie until the very last.
i believe Trump may have some poll watchers at critical locations or security cameras.
rno
CDC employee flips off mother of vaccine injured child.
Who is this disgusting #cdc employer who just did this to a mother with an injured child from vaccines ? We need to name and shame these awful people who are also covering up CDC mmr fraud. The CDC rally is on right now and the employees are being absolutely disgusting to the peaceful protestors The protestors are saying stop killing our babies and one of the staff said ‘those babies keep us employed’ This is a CDC employee after he saw my poster of my #gomace after he had a stroke from his MMR. ? #googleidentifythisman #macesmom #realorganictruth #cdctruth
http://www.pictaram.com/user/missecoglam/4111645
The Donald is the Anti Biotic administrator or VET of Politics
Sometimes your immune system gets out of wack and the Bad stuff starts getting an advantage over your immune system.The result is sickness,pneumonia ,TB, all kinds of parasites ready to exploit your weakness .
If no action is taken skin disease moles, mites,worms,fungus and numerous PARASITES will get the advantage and Kill you ! Even you loyal Pets get Fleas,worms Ticks and numerous blood sucking, life draining parasites sometimes need corrective action or the HOST ,YOUR ADORABLE Pet dies . So it is with Humans ,DC is NEST full of PARASITES AND IS THE CENTER OF THEIR LIFE CYCLE WHERE THEY MULTIPLY AND JOIN FORCES .
They disperse to all 50 states to suck the blood from food ,clothing and shelter producers and then return to thier DC NEST like cockroaches to multiply again.Rinse & Repeat.
So you take corrective action ,you take your pet to the VET AND HE PROCEEDS TO ELIMINATE THE FLEAS ,mites,Ticks by killing them so that the good may have a chance to live free of pestilence and PARASITES THAT DRAIN THE LIFE .So as it shall be in POLITICS .ITS TIME for the Vet to take action .The VET and Anti Biotic is Trump and he needs to get rid of all the bad biotic and the good and start over.! replacing NO Biotics with the good Biotics first to give it a chance to flourish BEFORE the overwhelming numbers of bad stuff get a foot hold since THEY are more numerous. and so both Democrats and Republicans must go in order for the Good guys to re establish themselves before it starts again.The world is full of Parasites that don’t want to produce anything but seek to take from the Producers first ,its easier than working for what you need. Politicians are the lead Parasites directing their minions to where the resources are for their like minded to exploit. Its true even in poor countries like the Philippines where Drug sellers and other parasites were killing the countries honest citizens until they banded together and hired an exterminator.
Sooner or later you will deal with the problem ,if you cant get to a VET ,the next step is the Exterminator.
Morning Farmboy
Yep. The games continue for sure. Too bad those funds didn’t stand firm. OTOH, I’m somewhat encouraged to see the commercials didn’t add a bunch of new longs that they could dump on the market at a future date
Might be an interesting game with Bama and Tenn. Just got back from Knoxville on business on the Tenn. fans were pumped up.
Enjoy your day!
Morning Buygold, Thanks For The COT Report
Same ole Same, The Games continue…..
Hey, hope you didn’t throw out that busted coffee pot of yours, could always make a wind chime. 🙂
Have a great day Buygold. I’m off to the grocery store the cooler weather is telling me its chili fixins time. Or as some might call it, The Annual Great Flush.
Massive Short Covering for the second week in a row
Unfortunately, the funds are giving them cover by dumping their long positions.