Loading ...I’m not done yet lol. Yep the crimeX
This is FGC find. It’s long and starts with the history if the comex swamp manipulating the metals.
Then March, and why every one should know about it as it goes into the scenarios of what could happen. Scrolled down to this.
The March contract has open interest representing around 380 million ounces. COMEX has 102.5 million ounces registered, falling daily. Even if only 27% demand delivery – conservative given recent rates – they’d need 102.6 million ounces…
Meanwhile in Shanghai, trader Bian Ximing is short 450 tons. The entire Shanghai Futures Exchange has only 349.9 tons available. This guy is short more silver than exists on the exchange. Add to that the unbelievable drain last Friday! There’s simply no escape. Someone fails to deliver.
The paper-to-physical ratio has reached absurd levels. Some estimates put it at 250:1. For every ounce of real silver, there are 250 paper claims. I’ve seen numbers fluctuating between 400:1 to 25:1.
End of last year, I wrote that the US banks went net LONG for the first time in decades. They covered their shorts over the summer and flipped to 773 contracts net long by December. Allegedly JPMorgan, the bank that spent decades suppressing silver, is now positioned to profit from higher prices.
European banks didn’t get the memo. They’re still net short.
So when COMEX (an American institution) raises margins now, who gets hurt? Not JPMorgan (an American institution)… no no… Margin hikes squeeze European banks holding those massive underwater shorts.
So. Now we’re getting to the point I wanted to make: what happens when COMEX actually runs out?
There’s one scenario they probably should do but won’t: let the price run.
Why do you think that people are demanding delivery at 98% rates? Because they don’t trust COMEX to have metal later. Every delivery demand is a vote of no confidence.
If COMEX let silver run to $150, $200, … contracts would start rolling forward. Traders who believe COMEX delivers at $180 in June don’t ask for a panic-deliver in March. Delivery pressure will ease. Shorts will get crushed – which is what’s supposed to happen in a shortage. Markets will clear. And their credibility as a market will be restored.
But I can nearly assure you: they won’t. The shorts are European banks. But how are they entangled into the global financial system? Failure of one, would that set off a global contagion? Just look what happened to Lehman Brothers… “Contained” they said.
I wouldn’t want to be a politician in this environment. Because you’ve got the choice between two evils. Let European banks eat the losses, or permanently losing price discovery to China?
Because if they choose to intervene too obviously – liquidation-only, trade cancellations, forced cash settlement – every serious trader routes business through Shanghai. Yuan will become the pricing currency. And China controls yet another strategic market. https://no01.substack.com/p/this-time-is-different