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Based on early 2026 reports, a major, structural, and unprecedented crisis in silver delivery is expected for March 2026. The COMEX exchange faces a critical shortage, with paper claims (open interest) significantly outweighing registered, deliverable silver, creating a high risk of delivery failure, forced cash settlements, and severe price volatility.
Key Issues Surrounding March 2026 Silver Delivery:
- Massive Shortage: Open interest for the March 2026 contract represents over 400-500 million ounces, while registered, deliverable silver in COMEX vaults is only a fraction of that, at roughly 85–113 million ounces.
- High Paper-to-Physical Ratio: Estimates suggest 5:1 to over 356:1 paper-to-physical ratios, meaning too many investors are chasing too little metal.
- Drain on Inventories: Registered silver inventories have dropped by nearly 40% in late 2025/early 2026, with a rapid, continued daily drain.
- Market Vulnerability: Experts warn this could be the “funeral of COMEX,” leading to force majeure or a total loss of confidence in the paper pricing system.
- Import Restrictions: India has restricted imports of plain silver jewelry until March 31, 2026, limiting global supply.
Other Factors:
- High Demand: Physical demand is driven by industrial needs (solar panels, AI, electric vehicles) and investment hoarding, not just speculation.
- Price Volatility: The market has experienced violent swings and high premiums due to this squeeze.
Disclaimer: This information is based on market analyses and predictions as of early 2026 and may be subject to rapid changes.