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I asked ChatGPT Why is the silver price so much higher in shanghai

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:12 on December 26, 2025  

Silver often trades noticeably higher in Shanghai (the Shanghai Gold Exchange / SGE) than in London or New York for a mix of structural, regulatory, and supply-demand reasons, not because the metal itself is different.

Here are the main drivers, from most important to least:


1. China tightly controls silver imports

China does not allow free import/export of silver.

  • Only licensed banks and firms can import silver

  • Import quotas and approvals can be slow or limited

  • When domestic demand rises, foreign silver can’t flow in quickly to arbitrage the price

This breaks the usual “buy low here, sell high there” mechanism that keeps global prices aligned.


2. Strong domestic demand

China is one of the largest silver consumers in the world, driven by:

  • Solar panel manufacturing

  • Electronics and semiconductors

  • Industrial alloys and chemicals

  • Jewelry and investment demand

When Chinese industry ramps up (especially solar), local demand spikes fast, pushing prices up inside China.


3. SGE prices are physical, not paper-based

Shanghai prices mostly reflect physical silver delivery, while:

  • COMEX (US) and LBMA (London) are dominated by paper contracts and derivatives

Paper markets can suppress prices during periods of heavy short selling, while physical markets respond more directly to real shortages.

Result:
👉 Physical premiums appear in Shanghai first


4. VAT and transaction costs

Silver traded in China usually includes:

  • Value-added tax (VAT) (often ~13%)

  • Local logistics and financing costs

These alone can add a noticeable premium versus Western spot prices.


5. Currency effects (RMB vs USD)

Shanghai silver is priced in RMB, not dollars.

  • RMB depreciation or capital controls can make metals more attractive

  • Precious metals are a popular hedge inside China when confidence in financial assets weakens


6. Limited arbitrage

Even when Shanghai prices are much higher:

  • Exporting silver out of China is restricted

  • Importing large amounts quickly is difficult

So the premium can persist for months, instead of disappearing in days like it would between London and New York.


What the Shanghai premium usually signals

Historically, a large Shanghai silver premium suggests:

  • Tight physical supply

  • Rising industrial demand

  • Stress or distortion in global silver markets

It does not automatically mean global prices will jump—but it often precedes periods of volatility.


In short

Silver is more expensive in Shanghai because:

China has high physical demand, strict import controls, and a market focused on real metal—not paper contracts.

If you want, I can also explain:

  • How big the Shanghai premium is “normally”

  • Whether it’s a bullish signal for global silver

  • How arbitrage sometimes happens anyway

  • The difference between gold vs silver premiums in China

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.