Loading ...Turning our brains to mush. Too true.
Not sure that the commodities will be good this time around. Last time (2001 onwards, as you point out) China was continuing to boost its GDP with fake projects – ghost towns, roads and rail to nowhere – and exporting steel at below cost price which boosts demand overseas as well as eliminating foreign competition.
Now China is forecasting reduced steel consumption. Iron ore is below $100. Copper is below the 2011 peak, in spite of the green revolution. Reduced steel means reduced metallurgical coal. And some of the BRICS are major suppliers, not consumers, of commodities.
If Trump wins, and the Dems are doing their best to help (The Kamala Waltz, by Johann Strauss, a vigorously dodgy little dance), then oil and gas in the US will be opened up, so more supply as we go into a recession will pressure prices downward too.
One thing is for sure, I won’t be buying back into any of the commodity shares I had in 2001-2007. They’ve all, without exception, gone bust.