The Asian Guy says not to focus on manipulation and he’s right, but this is the height of manipulation that we’re seeing. The one thing I’m sure about, is that it can’t go on for more than a couple of days as long as physical in Shanghai stays elevated. They can’t do it, unless their plan is to have everyone on the Crimex stand for delivery for the arbitrage play, and then default at delivery time.

Unfortunately, the buy/sell prices are still counted in dollars and paper is reality for the moment.

I agree with the captains’ article though, yesterday was not a top – not even close – it was a raid.

Speaking of the dollar, I thought it might bounce here around the 200 dma. Not quite yet. Very weak.

Silver’s 15% 5-Sigma Intraday Trading Swing, Huge Volatility, Shanghai Premium, Supply Tightness, G-T-S Ratio, & Why This is Not The Top!

Today will be remembered as the day silver went certifably insane. In the span of just a few hours, the price of silver rocketed from approximately $103 to an all-time high of ~$117, a staggering 14% gain.

It was a move of breathtaking violence, a parabolic explosion that had the entire financial world watching in a mixture of awe and terror. And then, just as quickly as it had risen, it was knocked down, crashing back to the $105 level in a brutal, gut-wrenching reversal.

This 15% intraday range represents a 5-sigma event, a statistical anomaly so rare that it is expected to occur only once every 13,932 years.

It is a move that, according to the models, should be impossible. And yet, it happened. The largest daily gain since 2008 was wiped out in a matter of minutes. The chaos was palpable. The fear was real.

And so, the question that is on everyone’s mind is this: Does this massive reversal signal the top? Is this the end of the great silver bull market of the 2020s? Was this the final, manic blow-off that signals the end of the party? The answer, in a word, is no. Not even close.

• You need to understand today’s 15% intraday swing was a 5-sigma event, a statistical impossibility that signals a market in transition, not a top. We also saw this very thing with gold this past October.
• You need to understand the Shanghai silver premium exploded to a record $23/oz, confirming this is a physical supply crisis, not a paper-driven speculative bubble.
• You need to understand Jim Cramer, the ultimate contrarian indicator, capitulated today, tweeting that silver is “getting ridiculous” and that he would “try to cash in on family silver.”
• You need to understand Goldman Sachs’ top precious metals trader, Benjamin Binet-Laisne, left the bank today, or rather he was let go. This is not a coincidence. He must have lost a fortune shorting silver.
• You need to understand the gold-silver ratio has begun a waterfall decline, but it is nowhere near its historic cycle lows of 10-20:1.
• You need to understand Michael Oliver’s framework predicted this extreme volatility. He has been warning for months that the transition to a new price reality would be violent.
• And you need to understand absolutely nothing has changed in the fundamental picture. The supply deficit is worsening, demand is exploding from every direction (solar, military, grid, data centers, tech, automotive, Asian development), and the monetary crisis is accelerating.

The great silver shakeout of 2026 just happened with a 5-sigma event, involving a huge intraday trading swing, huge volatility, an expanding Shanghai Premium, historical physical supply tightness, and a rapidly declining G-T-S Ratio. Oh, and this is not the top!

Let’s Dig Into The Following:

1. It’s critical for us to understand this 5-sigma event in silver. A 5-sigma event is, for all practical purposes, impossible. It is an event that has a 0.00002% probability of occurring, or once every 13,932 years. It is an event so far outside the realm of normal probability that it should not happen. And yet it did. Why today’s event was violent, chaotic, and 100% absolutely necessary!
2. The Shanghai silver premium exploded out today. If there is one signal that cuts through all the noise, all the chaos, all the fear, it is this: the Shanghai silver premium exploded to a record $23/oz today. While the paper price of silver was being slammed down on the COMEX, the physical price of silver in Shanghai was soaring to a reported $133/oz. Why as long as the Shanghai premium persists, the drain of physical metal will continue until the Western vaults are empty!
3. None of what happened today would make sense without looking at the U.S. dollar. It is no coincidence that silver’s violent reversal today occurred just after the U.S. dollar index (DXY) reversed higher. After falling through the critical 97 level to a low of 96.85, the DXY suddenly and inexplicably spiked higher, just as silver was hitting its highs for the day. Why they know that if the dollar falls precipitously, silver will explode, and they know that the dollar is the linchpin of the entire financial system, and they will do everything in their power to prevent it from collapsing!
4. All of the contrarian indicators tell us that this is not the top in silver. In moments of extreme volatility and fear, it is essential to look at the data, not the drama. And the data is telling us, in no uncertain terms, that this is not the top. Why the events of today have provided us with some of the most powerful contrarian buy signals we have seen!
5. The gold-to-silver ratio compression has only just begun. For months, we have been highlighting the gold-silver ratio as one of the most important charts in the world. And for months, it has been telling us that silver is dramatically undervalued relative to gold. Today, that ratio began a waterfall decline, falling from over 50 to a low of 44.5. Why this is a significant move, but it is just the beginning, the historic low of the gold-silver ratio is between 10:1 and 20:1, and that is exactly where it is going!
6. And the macro backdrop is absolutely unchanged and intensifying. While the price action today was dramatic, it is critical to understand that absolutely nothing has changed in the macro backdrop that is driving this bull market. In fact, the forces propelling silver higher are not weakening; they are intensifying with each passing day. Why these are not temporary factors; these are structural, multi-decade trends that will take years to play out, and a 15% intraday swing in the price of silver does not change any of this!

Because people like me were buying put protection just in case we get flushed right here. I’m not on XYZ team, I’m just trying to protect my wealth. I change my mind a lot while trading but I never lose my physical position. It’s not worth dealing with selling fiz. When I see physical silver spike 14%+ a day, this is a good time to buy some puts, why not? Is it a short term play maybe but it’s still worth trying to win. Stay nimble and fluid. I’m going to continuing education classes that are going to last for a couple days, see you all after the trade day

Hit silver for $.80, gold for $11.

They’ll do this all day long until they can find some jumpy longs – regardless of the Shanghai price for REAL metal.

The miners should not have cratered like that yesterday. They are still way undervalued compared to the metal. It may take earnings and dividends for the funds to value them properly. The explorers have a much tougher task – no earnings.

I don’t see how we can close too much below that number on the spot price.

Shares are back up this am, but of course nowhere near where they were yesterday after the B.S. games with the metals. Why would they be? Every time the metal pulls back a couple % they go in the tank. They can’t be trusted. Yet anyway. So typical.

This is crazy. Even if you try to make price targets for them then wait they’re not supposed to all move together then only for one day. The phyzz has a mind of its own right now and don’t know why miners will all start selling when the need is still there and all the shorts are doing is trying to make some quick money.

especially the ones that piled in yesterday during the afternoon death drop. If not awake already, when they do get up, they’ll be stunned to see silver right back up $9 and heading toward yesterday’s high of $117.

Sorry, not sorry.

Then there are the freshly minted new share shorts. What are they gonna do?

This is a wild ride and not for the faint of heart. The dollar is flattening out today but looks like after it fills a gap (or not), is going to experience its own little death drop. Won’t be helpful to the bear case for pm’s.

Break out the Tums.

Pretty spectacular rebound so far, which would seem to say that all the selling after the closes here in the US was phony paper games.

The Shanghai am fix tonight was $126.89, not slowing down a bit. $4 higher than last night.

Pretty tough to get price discovery if the paper has no anchor. Looks like everything that happened after 1:30 pm EST was bullshot.

Good to see you around. Always like your take on things. All best.

Mexico concessions China controls etc.

Metals will probably chop this week. It’s the only way the shorts on the Crimex can profit. They will then short the next leg up until the ultimate top. This rally may last for years with breathtaking downside corrections to shake off all the little guys.

I wish they would do away with extended trading hours. Trading two hours after settlement can really screw the markets.

Miner shares may have had some profit taking but the G/S prices held on.

Ultimately the shorts will probably get crushed, they were getting crushed this am. The shares, especially the silver shares are another story. They seem to be able to move them down with relative ease, although the bigger they are, the harder it is.

deer79 mentioned DVS. It traded over 2 million shares 10x avg volume is a perfect example. I think they will take it back below $5 again within a couple days, then slowly cover. 3 steps forward, 2 back.

No doubt the producers are way undervalued, but the ones that don’t produce are playthings.

I agree this week will tell us a lot but I think we’re in for a couple of rough days.
Earnings don’t start coming out until mid/end Feb. producers should get a big boost then.

Says one hour ago. Talks about what to watch for and of course your stocks.

My account was up big this morning, and now I log in and all the gains are gone. Did someone post the Rally Monkey?

Re Fed meeting

As u say In the past PM’s always had a lid on ’em during Fed Time….what if this attack has occurred ‘ assumeing’ the Fed/scum will lid the mkts as in the past….but if revaluation is the new reality the Fed ain’t going to be there, to back the raiders up……as building shorts is a straight waste of money……the next few days may tell us an awful lot…..

My guess is the shorts will get slaughtered .

Tax or not, the spread with Shanghai can’t get too wide.

They waited until illiquid times – after Crimex and again after the SM closed. If they could have done it this morning they would have, but there were too many buyers.

Probably be a couple nasty days.

More B.S. in the shares.

it will be worth watching what the night shift (west rim of pacific) does after today’s shenanigans.

Oh geeze no wonder it dropped. If I saw that I would of rotated more but not all out of silver to gold.

sharp contrast in the aug/ag ratio before silver’s abrupt drop and after.

I wasn’t watching DVS though.

They are working OT to make sure we made a top today. They hit all the stocks. All of the damage was done after the Crimex closed, still doing it now. Platinum got murdered.

Fed meeting. Going to be a rough couple days if they can pull it off.